【作者】 熊兵；

【导师】 蒋惠园；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 长江三峡2003年6月高程蓄水成库后,通航环境明显改善,水上运输量快速增长。与此同时,库区通航环境发生了重大变化,通航环境日益复杂,新的水上交通安全隐患增多。三峡库区属于高风险水域,一旦发生重特大安全生产事故和污染事故,必将会给库区乃至整个长江沿线造成损害。如何提高库区水上安全管理水平、确保库区水上交通安全,成为亟待解决的问题。本文运用现代控制论的原理和方法,进行水上交通安全控制机制和管理要件分析,以此为思路展开论文研究。分析三峡库区水上交通安全事故特点和风险因素,进行危险源辨识；采用恰当方法估算三峡库区水上交通安全状态方程,并构建最优策略的安全目标控制模型；研究安全应急管理体系及绩效评价方法；提出三峡库区雾航安全预警管理机制。主要研究工作及结论如下：1)运用现代控制理论的方法论,设计水上交通安全管理系统的控制机制为基于目标的负反馈闭环控制,其中,水上交通运输安全系统监测、系统分析、确定安全目标、安全控制策略的决策与实施,是安全管理的关键。2)分析三峡库区水上交通事故演变特点,采用GM灰色模型、自回归滑动平均ARIMA模型和ELman人工神经网络模型,对交通事故进行预测；分析了成库后水上交通风险变化特点,采用危险性预先分析法(PHA)和作业条件危险性评价法(LECD),进行通航环境危险源辨识。3)研究安全状态方程,采用小样本大噪声的参数估计LKL法,进行三峡库区水上交通安全状态方程估算,并进行危险度和安全度评价；运用离散动态系统最优控制的理论和方法,研究三峡库区水上交通安全最优控制,构建基于最优资源投入策略的安全目标控制模型。4)进行三峡库区水上交通安全应急管理组织系统、管理流程和信息化系统设计；构建了4大类一级指标、15个二级指标组成的水上交通安全应急管理绩效综合评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价法(FCE),对三峡库区水上交通安全应急管理绩效评价进行实证研究。5)分析三峡库区雾情的特点、对航运安全的影响,以及雾航安全管理存在的问题,研究提出包括预警等级划分和评判标准、组织运行模式、预控对策库在内的雾航安全预警管理机制,并提出相应的管理对策与建议。本论文创新性工作有：构建基于小样本大噪声参数估计LKL法的三峡库区水上交通安全状态方程；构建基于最优资源投入策略的安全目标控制模型；提出水上交通安全应急管理绩效综合评价指标体系和三峡库区雾航安全预警管理机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the high-water impoundment of Three Gorges reservoir since June 2003, the navigation environment has improved significantly, water transportation volume has being growing rapidly. At the same time, the navigation environment has undergone major changes and become more and more complex, new security risks of water transportation increase unceasingly. Three Gorges reservoir of Yangtze River is a high-risk area of water transportation, the extraordinarily serious safety accidents and pollution incidents will cause damage to the reservoir area and the whole along the Yangtze River. How to improve reservoir water safety management to ensure water traffic safety become problems to be solved urgently.This dissertation used principles and methods of modern control theory modern control theory to analyze the water transport safety control mechanisms and management elements, as for the idea to the thesis researches. It analyzed water traffic accidents characteristics and risk factors for hazard identification in three Gorges reservoir; used appropriate methods to estimate the state equation of water transport safety and construct the security goal control model of optimal strategy; studied safety emergency management system and performance evaluation methods; put forward early warning mechanism for navigation safety in fog. The content and results of the dissertation are as follows:1) It applied modern control theory to design water traffic safety management system control mechanism to be the negative feedback loop control, in addition, the key management elements are the water transportation safety system monitoring, system analysis, identifying security objectives, decision-making and implementation of safety control strategy.2) It analyzed the characteristics of water traffic accidents in Three Gorges reservoir, used grey model, ARIMA model and Elman artificial neural network model to predict traffic accidents; analyzed the characteristic changes of water transport risks, used pre-hazard-analysis (PHA) and likelihood-exposure-consequence-degree (LECD) assessment to identify the navigation environment hazard.3) It researched the safety state equations for Three Gorges reservoir, applied small sample parameter estimation method of the Least square method-Kalman filtering algorithm-Least square (LKL) method to estimate water traffic safety state equation to measure the degree of system risk and the value of safety efforts to control; applied discrete dynamic system optimal control theory to study water traffic safety optimal control, built a safety goal control model based on the optimal resource investment strategy.4) It designed the security emergency management system of the water traffic safety, including organization system, management process and information system; construct a water traffic safety emergency management performance comprehensive evaluation index system consisting of 4 level indicators and 15 secondary indicators, used analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) methods to evaluate water traffic safety emergency management performance.5) It analyzed the characteristics of fog in Three Gorges reservoir, the influence and problems to navigation safety management; researched early warning mechanism of navigation safety in fog, including warning levels and criteria, organization operation mode, pre-control measures library, put forward the corresponding management countermeasures and suggestions.The innovative works in this dissertation are as follows:it apply small sample parameter estimation method of LKL method to estimate water traffic safety state equation of Three Gorges reservoir; build a safety goal control model based on the optimal resource investment strategy; construct water traffic safety emergency management performance comprehensive evaluation index system, and put forward the early warning mechanism of navigation safety in fog.更多还原