【作者】 习树峰；

【导师】 王本德；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国人口的增长和经济的发展,水资源问题已经成为制约人类生存与可持续发展的瓶颈因素,水资源分布不均匀性与社会需水不均衡性的客观存在使得跨流域调水成为必然。目前,对跨流域调水调度的研究大多是针对调水系统的规划设计阶段,由于所涉及问题的综合多样性,跨流域调水实际运行的复杂性、规划的调水调度方式已不适应跨流域调水的实际情况。随着很多大型跨流域调水工程的投入运行,如何根据现有的信息资料进行跨流域调水实时预报调度是现阶段亟待解决的主要问题。为此,本文将跨流域调水系统作为研究对象,以建立先进可行的跨流域调水实时预报调度模型为目标展开研究,着重解决预报信息的可利用性、实时预报调度规则的选择等问题。文中首先对GFS降雨预报信息的分级利用方法及其精度进行分析,然后利用降雨预报信息和水文预报信息建立跨流域调水实时预报优化调度模型,最后对跨流域调水调度的风险和效益进行了识别和估算。主要研究成果有：(1)对短期和中期的GFS降雨预报信息进行分级利用和精度检验。文中采用降雨概率分级法,提出一种基于有限样本资料,考虑抽样误差的中期降雨分级预报精度评定新方法,进而给出不同阶段、不同预见期、不同等级的降雨预报信息可利用性标准--FAS评分值及可信度等级。研究成果可为GFS信息使用者提供不同阶段、不同预报量级可能发生的值域及其相应概率信息。可为决策者提供较为直观的和重要参考价值的决策依据。(2)建立基于GFS预报信息的旬径流BP预报模型。该模型参照流域降雨径流相关的规律,以实际的旬初土壤蓄水、GFS预报降雨量为输入条件,以实际的旬入库径流量为输出条件,进行旬径流定量预报和分级预报。模型分析了利用前期流域土壤概化信息、流域降雨预报信息,进行旬径流预报的可利用性和可操作性。(3)构建梯级水库跨流域供水、发电预报优化调度模型。该模型将旬径流预报信息作为输入,以最大供水能力和最大发电量为主要目标,选择逐步优化算法对调度系统进行优化调度。模型以H江流域梯级水库为主要研究对象建立模型,并与采用常规调度方式的水库调度过程相比较,结果表明,采用预报优化调度模型进行跨流域供水和梯级水库发电调度,能够明显的提高水资源的利用效率。(4)建立跨流域调水实时预报调度规则。本文将GFS数值降雨预报分级信息和下垫面蓄水状态信息作为水量调入区本地未来来水量的表征因子,引入到水库跨流域调水决策过程中,选择决策树法获取预报调度规则,根据当前水库状态和受水区的来水情况来确定跨流域调水量,对水资源进行合理分配。通过WE跨流域调水工程的调度实践证明,应用新的调水规则进行跨流域调水调度减少了跨流域调水量和弃水量,并有效的提高了水资源的利用效率,比水库常规调度和优化调度具有一定的优越性。(5)提出跨流域调水调度风险效益综合分析方法。文中通过对跨流域调水调度过程中各风险要素和效益要素的识别的分析；建立风险评估和效益评估指标体系；采用最优组合权重分析方法进行主、客观权重集成,得到风险指标和效益指标的综合权重；最后通过对不同调度方案的调度结果分析,利用风险指标和效益指标对不同跨流域调水调度方案进行综合评价,从而为管理者提供较为直观的决策依据。最后对全文做了总结,并对有待于进一步研究的问题进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increase of population and the development of economy in China, water resource problems have become major restrictive factors for human survival and sustainable development. It becomes necessary to divert water because of uneven water distribution and unbalanced social water demand. At present, researches on interbasin water transfer operation are mainly about the design planning stage of water diversion. The planning diversion operation can not fit the actual situation because of the comprehensive diversity of interbasin water transfer and complexity of the actual operation. As many large-scale interbasin water transfer projects have been put into operation, it becomes a main problem that how to operate interbasin water transfer in real time according to available information at present.Therefore, with the research object of interbasin water transfer system, this paper studies how to establish an advanced and feasible model of interbasin water transfer real time forecast operation to solve the problems of the utilizability of forecast information and the real-time operation rules. First, this paper analyses the grading methods of GFS rainfall forecast information and its accuracy. Then, it establishes a real-time operation model of interbasin water transfer according to rainfall forecast and hydrologic forecast. At last, it distinguishes and estimates the risk and benifit of water diversion operation. The main research results are as followed:(1) Grading the short and medium term rainfall forecast information by GFS and checking the accuracy. This paper comes up with a new accuracy assessment method of medium term rainfall forecast grading with the consideration of sampling error based on finite samples when using rainfall grading probability method. And then, it provides utilizability standards of the rainfall forecast---FAS score and reliability grades in different periods, different leading time, and different grades. Research results, which can provide different grade range of rainfall and its probability in different periods for GFS users, can provide intuitive, important and valuable decision for decision makers.(2) Building BP forecast model of GFS 10-day runoff forecast. This model, which considers the relationship between rainfall and runoff, forecast 10-day runoff and its grade with soil water storage and GFS rainfall as input condition and actual 10-day inflow as output condition. The model analyses generalized soil information in earlier stage, rainfall forecast, and the utilizability and the operability of forecasting 10-day runoff.(3) Building optimizing operation model of interbasin water transfer supply and electricity generation forecast in cascading reservoirs. This model, of which the input condition is 10-day runoff forecast, uses progressive optimization algorithm to arrive at the maximum water supply and maximum generated energy with cascading reservoirs in H Basin as an object of study. Comparing with the process of conventional operation, it shows that forecast optimization operation model could enhance the utilization ratio of water resource obviously.(4) Establishing real-time operation rules of interbasin water transfer. It arrives at operation rules by decision tree while considering GFS numerical rainfall forecast and water storage of underlying surfaced during the process of interbasin water transfer making. It distributes water resource reasonably according to current state of reservoir and inflow of reception area. Operation of West to East interbasin water transfer project proves that new diversion rules could reduce water transfer quantity and surplus water quantity, and enhances the utilization rate of water resource obviously. It is better than conventional operation.(5) Coming up with risk-benefit analysis method of interbasin water transfer operation. This paper analyses risk factors and benifit factors for interbasin water transfer operation; establishes risk and benifit evaluation indicator system; arrives at integrated weights of factor indicators by optimal combination weight analysis method; calculates the integrated risk and benifit of inter-basin water transfer with integrated weights, which provides managers with a more intuitive decision-making basis.At the end, it summarizes the whole paper, and gets outlook for some further problems.更多还原