【作者】 罗福才；

【导师】 林焰；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 船舶与海洋结构物设计制造， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 资产评估是一项国际性社会经济活动,它是伴随着社会发展和进步,尤其是社会化大生产和商品交换的迅速发展而出现的。为了适应航运市场的发展和变化,国际航运企业要及时做出买卖船、造船及租船决策,寻找新的航运经营模式,联合其他航运企业组建新的班轮工会、运输联盟,或者实施重组、兼并、收购其他航运企业等等。在这些交易中,都需要对交易船舶进行资产评估。随着我国社会主义市场经济的发展,船舶的买卖、转让、抵押、租赁、保险、担保、损害赔偿等事项经常发生,船舶资产评估随之而来。针对目前船舶资产评估理论研究缺乏状况,以资产评估内容为基础,对船舶资产评估的种类、特点、原则、基本要素、评估程序和评估报告等有关内容进行了系统研究,分析了船舶性能和主要设备状况、作业航行区域、船龄、船舶的各种证书和建造国家等因素对船舶资产评估的影响。论文主要工作体现在以下三个方面：结合船舶资产的特点,对船舶资产评估的成本法、市场法和收益法进行了研究,对评估方法的应用前提条件、评估程序和优缺点等进行了分析。根据技术经济学理论,将现值法应用于船舶资产评估。对上述四种船舶资产评估方法在船舶资产评估中如何应用进行了分析,对各方法的适用条件进行了比较。对基于BP神经网络的船舶资产评估方法进行了研究。利用BP神经网络具有大规模并行、分布式存储和处理、自组织、自适应和自学能力,特别适合处理需要同时考虑许多因素和条件的、不精确和模糊的信息处理问题,可以实现从输入到输出的任意非线性映射等特点,研究了基于BP神经网络的二手船和废船资产评估方法。建立了两种估算二手船价格的BP神经网络模型：以载重量做为输入的模型；以载重量和建造年份同时做为输入的模型。建立了三种估算废船空船重量的BP神经网络模型：以船长做为输入的模型、以载重量做为输入的模型；以主尺度做为输入的模型。船舶安全风险的存在,必然会对船舶的价值产生影响。因此,在进行船舶资产评估的同时,应该考虑船舶安全风险对其评估价值的影响。论文研究了基于安全风险的船舶资产评估思路,提出了基于安全风险的船舶资产评估流程、方法和计算公式。通过对被评估船舶进行安全风险分析,确定船舶安全风险水平,计算船舶安全折扣率,从而确定考虑船舶安全风险的船舶资产的评估值。以渔船为对象进行了应用研究,对渔船安全状况加以分析,简要介绍了综合安全评估方法,运用该方法对渔船安全危害最大的全损事故进行了安全风险分析,对事故进行了分类,对事故的原因进行了分析,对渔船全损事故进行了风险评估,建立了相应的风险矩阵,提出了对渔船安全的风险控制方案和决策性建议,对渔船安全风险折扣率进行了研究,给出了具体计算公式。更多还原

【Abstract】 Asset valuation is an international socio-economic activity, and arises from social development and progress, especially the rapid development of large-scale socialized production and commodity exchange. In China, the rise of asset valuation is in the process of the reform and opening up, and the development of socialist market economy. In order to adapt the development and change of shipping market, international shipping enterprise need to timely make decisions to buy or sell, build and charter ships, to find new shipping business mode, to joint other enterprise to build up new liner unions or transportation alliances, to implement reconstructions, mergers, acquisition of other enterprise, and so on. In such transactions, all trading ships need the assets evaluation. In our country, with the development of socialist market economy, ship asset appraisal comes along as the ship trade, transfer, mortgage, leasing, insurance, guarantees and damage compensation.In view of the current lack of study on ship assets valuation, the related contents of ship assets valuation are studied systematically based on the content of assets valuation, including types, characteristics, principles, basic elements, evaluation procedure and evaluation report of ship assets valuation. The impacts of ship performances, main equipment status, operation and sailing area, age of ship, ship certificates and the construction nation are analyzed. The main work of the paper embodies in the following three aspects.Combined with the characteristics of the ship assets, the cost method, the market method and the income method are studied on ship assets valuation. Application preconditions, assessment procedures, the advantages and disadvantages are analyzed for the evaluation methods. According to the theory of technical economics, the present value method is applied in ship assets assessment. The applications of ship assets valuation methods are analyzed in ship assets assessment. The applicable conditions of the methods are compared.The method of ship assets assessment is studied based on the BP neural network. The BP neural network has massively parallel, distributed storage and processing, self-organizing, self-adapting and self-learning ability, and particularly is suitable for problems with the simultaneous consideration of many factors and conditions, imprecise and vague information. It can be achieved from input to output arbitrary nonlinear mapping characteristics. The BP neural network asset evaluation method is studied for second-hand ships and hulks. Two kinds of BP neural network models are established to estimate second-hand ship price. One model takes the load as input; the other model takes the load and the year of building as input at the same time. Three kinds of BP neural network models are established to estimate the light weight of hulk. The models respectively take the length, the load and the principal dimensions as input.Safety risks influence the value of the ship. Therefore, the ship assets assessment at the same time, the influence of safety risks should be considered to the ship value. The process of ship assets assessment is studied based on the safety risks. A new way and formula of ship assets assessment is put forward based on the safety risks. By ship safety risks analysis to determine the level of ship safety risks, and calculate the discount rate of ship safety risks, thereby the value of ship assets is determined by taking account of ship safety risks. The application research is carried out for fishing boats. The status of fishing vessels is analyzed. The Formal Safety Assessment is briefly introduced. The safety risks of the total loss that is the most harmful to the fishing vessels safety are analyzed by FSA. The accidents are classified. The causes of the accidents are analyzed. The risk assessment is carried out for the total loss of fishing vessels. The suitable risk matrix is established. The risk control project and decision-making suggestions are put forward to fishing vessels safety. The discount rate of fishing vessels safety risk is studied. The specific calculation formula is put forward.更多还原