【作者】 王文渊；

【导师】 郭子坚；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 港口、海岸及近海工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 随着沿海港口大型深水泊位的快速建设,与其相配套的航道等级规模、通航条件已逐渐成为制约港口发展的重要因素之一,航道通过能力的计算及航道线数的选择是沿海港口航道建设的关键问题。科学地确定沿海港口航道通过能力是进行航道规划与设计、确定航道建设规模,以及实施航道扩建的重要依据。本研究结合沿海港口航道的特点,以港口服务水平为衡量标准定义了沿海港口航道通过能力,在系统地分析构成沿海港口船舶航行作业系统的船舶、航道、泊位、锚地以及自然条件等要素属性的基础上,从系统的观点出发,厘清沿海港口船舶航行作业系统构成要素之间的关系,构建沿海港口航道通过能力仿真计算模型。选取最具代表性的量值作为基本状态仿真模型的参数,运行仿真模型,得到各货种港区不同通航历时和潮差下港口服务水平与航道通过能力的关系曲线。同时,应用结合强化学习方法的数据挖掘技术,改进经验公式发现系统FDD,设计基于Q学习的公式发现模型,提出基本状态下沿海港口航道通过能力的计算公式,并从平均误差、拟合优度、可视化图形的角度,评价公式的效果,验证公式的可信性。为更准确地反映实际航道服务状态,解析沿海港口船舶航行作业系统构成要素对港口航道通过能力的影响机理,本研究提出了沿海港口航道通过能力的修正公式；通过深入挖掘基本状态仿真模型中各参数对航道通过能力的影响,提出了船舶进港安全间距影响系数、潮汐影响系数、潮汐以外的其他自然条件影响系数的计算公式。最后,通过算例分析,提出港区发展过程中扩建航道的最佳时机确定方法。本研究系统全面地提出了沿海港口航道通过能力的计算方法,研究成果可以应用于沿海航道的规划与设计,可为相关决策者提供定量的决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the construction of large deepwater berths in seaport, grade, scale and navigation conditions of the matched fairway have gradually become the restrictive factors of port development. Calculation of fairway through capacity and selection of fairway’s line number will be the key to determine fairway’s extension time. Scientific determination of fairway through capacity is a crucial basis for fairway’s planning and design, determining the construction scale of fairway and implementing its expansion.Combining the characteristics of coastal fairway, this research defines fairway through capacity in seaport as measured by service level of port.On the basis of system analysis of attributes as ships, fairway, berths, anchorage, natural conditions and so on, this research clarifies the key elements and their relations of ship sailing and operating system from the system perspective. Then a simulation model of fairway through capacity is established and most representative values are chosen as its parameters under ideal conditions. By running the model, the relation curving between service level of port and fairway through capacity under different navigation duration and tidal range in each specialized port area can be obtained. Meanwhile, we use reinforcement learning method and data mining technology to improve formula discovery from data (FDD), design formula discovery model based on Q-learning, and present a computational formula of fairway through capacity in seaport. The formula’s dependability is verified by evaluating its effect from the viewpoint of mean error, goodness of fit and graphic visualization.To accurately reflect fairway’s actual service state and analyze the influence mechanism of composing factors of marine operation system on fairway through capacity, modified formulas of fairway through capacity in seaport are proposed in this research. On the basis of discussing the effects of model’s parameters on fairway through capacity under ideal conditions, the influence coefficients of safety interval, tidal type, other natural conditions are presented. At the end of the dissertation, method of determining the best time to enlarge the fairway in the development of port area construction is also proposed through analysis of some examples.From all above, this study systematically puts forward the computing method of fairway through capacity, which can be applied to the planning and design of coastal fairway and provide a quantitative basis for decision making.更多还原