【作者】 舒帮荣；

【导师】 刘友兆；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 土地是人类赖以生存和发展的最基本的物质基础,特别是在人口占世界1/5的中国,“人多地少,耕地资源十分稀缺”已成为中国目前甚至将来相当长一段时期内的基本国情。目前,中国社会经济已进入发展的关键时期,城镇化、工业化要求城镇用地不断扩展,而同时中国人口众多,必须保证其粮食安全,生态环境保护问题也日益受到人们重视,“一要吃饭,二要建设,三要保护生态”,成为中国目前土地利用管理中的三大难题。然而,即便是土地资源十分紧缺,中国城镇化过程仍主要以粗放增长模式过度扩张城镇用地,不仅没有缓解中国耕地保护压力,反而造成了耕地的过度减少,威胁到中国粮食安全。同时,城镇土地不合理的利用导致了土地利用经济效益、社会效益和生态效益极为低下。如何正确引导城镇用地合理扩展,提高城镇土地利用综合效益,在保障中国粮食安全及生态安全的基础上又保证其社会经济的持续健康发展,降低社会经济发展过程中的土地资源消耗成本,成为土地利用规划中城镇用地空间管制亟待解决的问题。中国在第三轮土地利用规划中提出了通过划定城乡建设用地扩展边界和规模边界对城乡建设用地进行空间管制,然而在具体操作过程中尚缺乏相关理论与方法的指导。因此,对城镇用地扩展进行模拟,通过科学的方法确定规划期内城镇用地合理规模及空间布局,对于制定城镇用地扩展边界和规模边界,引导城镇用地有序扩展具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。在前人相关研究的基础上,围绕城镇用地合理扩展的目标,论文在复杂性理论、人地关系理论、土地区位理论及可持续发展理论等相关理论的支撑下,综合运用GIS技术、经济学分析方法、情景分析法及元胞自动机理论与方法等,采取规范分析与实证分析相结合、定性与定量分析相结合的范式,系统探讨了城镇用地扩展模拟的理论与方法,并以太仓市为例,对其市区城镇用地扩展进行了模拟实证研究。具体来讲,本文开展了以下内容的研究：(1)城镇用地扩展模拟研究的理论框架。分别从城镇用地扩展模拟的基础、约束及方法三个方面构建了城镇用地扩展模拟的逻辑分析框架：对城镇用地扩展态势进行模拟,就必须要对城镇用地扩展机理进行分析；在把握城镇土地利用系统演变规律的基础上,应明确城镇用地应如何扩展才合理,其规模及扩展空间应如何定位,对城镇用地扩展模拟模型有什么要求；在以上分析基础上,通过选择合适方法进行模型构建及实现,从而实现区域城镇用地合理扩展形态的模拟。(2)城镇土地利用系统复杂性及城镇用地扩展机理分析。在简要分析城镇土地利用系统复杂性及城镇用地扩展必然性的基础上,从用地规模及空间扩展两方面对城镇用地扩展的动力因素进行系统分析,并探讨不同经济发展阶段城镇用地扩展动力的作用特征。(3)城镇用地扩展模拟的约束条件分析。在探讨城镇用地扩展的正、负面效应的基础上,对城镇用地合理扩展的内涵及特征进行理论分析,提出在城镇用地扩展模拟中应从规模及空间两方面对模拟模型进行约束,进而引入变权理论、模糊集理论、情景分析法及经济理论与分析方法等,对城镇用地扩展模拟中规模约束及空间约束分析的思路及方法进行了研究。(4)城镇用地扩展模拟的方法及实现。结合土地利用规划中城镇建设用地空间管制的要求,以城镇用地合理情景规模、空间约束作为城镇用地扩展模拟的主要约束条件,提出并构建基于约束性模糊元胞自动机(CFCA)的城镇用地扩展模拟模型。在此基础上,基于ArcGIS平台,采用ModelBuider建模工具及图解建模法对CFCA模型进行了实现。(5)在以上理论与方法研究的基础上,对太仓市区城镇用地扩展特征、动力因素、不同情景下城镇用地合理规模以及规划目标年城镇用地扩张态势进行了情景模拟研究。通过以上理论与实证研究,得到以下主要结论：(1)城镇用地扩展模拟作为土地利用规划的一种决策支持手段,其不能仅限于根据以往城镇用地发展态势对未来城镇用地扩展进行模拟预测,而应在此基础上结合土地利用规划要求增加约束条件,从而使研究结果更具适用性。通过构建相对完善的城镇用地扩展模拟理论体系及分析框架,可以为土地利用规划中城镇用地空间管制提供较为完善的理论支撑体系。(2)对城镇土地利用系统演变进行模拟研究,其基础与前提是对该复杂系统的规律及系统演化机理进行分析。城镇用地规模变化的驱动因素主要包括城镇人口增长及城镇化进程的加快、经济与产业发展、技术进步、城镇交通发展、土地比较利益、固定资产投资及历史因素等,而制动因素则包括生态安全、区域土地资源禀赋、粮食安全以及土地调控相关政策等；在空间方面,影响城镇用地空间扩展的主要因素包括行政区划、生态因素、自然环境、地理区位条件、相关调控政策以及城镇土地利用系统的自组织作用等。在不同社会经济发展阶段,城镇用地扩展的动力因素影响程度大小各不相同,在对城镇用地扩展进行模拟研究时,需要识别研究区域所处的社会经济发展阶段,并对其城镇用地扩展特征及主要动力因素进行分析。通过对1989-2008年太仓市区城镇用地扩展特征及动力因素的分析,结果表明：太仓市区城镇用地扩展速度较快且呈加速态势,城镇土地利用经济效益不断提高,土地浪费现象有所缓解；而在扩展的空间分异上,其城镇用地重心不断向东北方向迁移,但在该过程中城镇用地紧凑度不断降低,土地规模利用效益发挥受限；太仓市区社会经济整体处于全面工业化发展阶段,二三产业增加值及比重、二三产业劳动力及城镇人口、固定资产投资、市中心、高速公路出口、一般公路及国道与省道等是其城镇用地扩展的主要动力因素。(3)从总体上讲,城镇用地合理扩展应做到城镇用地规模及新增城镇用地空间布局的合理性,因而需要将用地规模及空间因素作为模拟的约束条件。对太仓市区城镇用地合理规模情景分析的结果表明：在不考虑土地生态服务价值时除2006年和2007年外,以及在考虑生态服务价值时,太仓市区各年城镇用地现状规模明显偏大。根据是否考虑土地生态服务价值、社会经济发展速度以及研究区所处的社会经济发展阶段,从6种情景目标中选择了3种情景方案作为城镇用地扩展模拟的规模约束。(4)将CA理论与方法用于土地利用规划中城镇用地扩展模拟完全具有可行性和适用性。通过引入变权综合法、模糊集合理论,将生态适宜性、区位适宜性以及土地合理规模作为模拟模型的主要约束条件,构建出约束性模糊元胞自动机(CFCA)模拟模型,从而可以更好地处理城镇用地扩展过程中的模糊决策问题。对太仓市区城镇用地进行模拟的结果表明：基于CFCA的城镇用地扩展模拟模型可以较好地反映太仓市区城镇用地历年扩展规律；对3种情景目标下2015年及2020年太仓市区城镇用地扩展模拟的结果不仅体现了城镇用地扩展的规律,也体现了紧凑式发展模式,兼顾了城镇用地扩展生态效益,有利于提高城镇土地规模利用效益,其发展方向也与太仓市“十一五”规划相符,因而模拟结果可以用于指导土地利用规划中城镇用地扩展边界及规模边界的确定。最后,论文从城镇用地规模及空间扩展时序两个方面对城镇用地扩展调控提出了相关政策建议：(1)应将土地生态服务价值纳入城镇用地扩展成本,进一步完善农地城市流转机制；(2)编制弹性土地利用规划方案,合理确定多情景目标下的城镇用地规模,城市规划应与土地利用规划进行衔接,也需要制定不同发展情景目标下的弹性城市规划方案；(3)建立健全“土地利用-经济发展”绩效考核体系,完善土地利用年度计划管理制度；(4)对城镇用地扩展备选区域进行优先序分级,试行城镇用地开发权转移制度；(5)科学制定城市规划,合理布局各类城镇用地,提高地方政府领导的科学用地观。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a valuable natural resource, land is the basic material base for human existence and development, especially in China where has 1/5 of the world’s population. "Densely populated, land resources are very scarce" has become China’s basic national conditions now and even for a long period of time in the future. It is a critical period for the development of society and economy in currently China, urbanization and industrialization require urban land continuously expanding, while the needs of food security for large population and ecological protection are also need to be ensured. Therefore, "Food, construction and ecosystem" has become the major problem in the land utilization and management in China. Currently, although China just own very scarce land resources, China’s urbanization, processing with a mode of extensive growth of urban land, not only failed to ease the pressure on land protection in China, but also resulted in excessive reduction of arable land and pressure of food security. Meanwhile, the irrational use of urban land has made the economic, social and ecological benefits extremely low. Thus, how to guide the rational expansion of urban land correctly and improve the efficiency of urban land utilization, how to ensure the sustainable development of socio-economy and reduce the cost of land resource consumption on condition that food security and ecological security are ensured, have became the urgent issues to be solved in land use planning. Though the mesure of space control through establishing the boundaries of urban and rural construction land was proposed in the third round of land use planning, the guiding theories and methods is lacked in the planning work. Thus, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to guid the rational and orderly expansion of urban land through the study of dynamic simulation of urban expansion, which is capable of determining the reasonable scale and spatial distribution of urban land by using scientific and reasonable methods.Based on the previous studies and the related theories such as Complecxity Theory, Land Location Theory. Sustainable Development Theory and the Theory of Man-Land Relationship etc., this research, which aims at the reasonable expansion of urban land, adopts research normal forms such as normative & empirical analysis, qualitative & quantitative analysis etc., does a systematic study on the theory and method of simulation of urban expansion by using GIS technology, economics analysis, scenario analysis and cellular automata methods comprehensively. And then, this research does an empirical research of urban land expansion simulation take Taicang City as a case. Specifically, this paper concerns the mainly contents as following:(1) The analytical framework of dynamic simulation of urban land expansion. The paper builds up a logical analytical framework of dynamic simulation of urban expansion from the basis, constraints and method of urban expansion simulation separately. That is, it’s necessary to analyze the mechanism of urban land expansion to grasp the evolution law of urban land use system in order to simulate the reasonable expansion of urban land. And then, we need to identify the issuses such as:what is the reasonable expansion form, how to determine the reasonable area of urban land and its location for expansion, and what is required on the simulation model of urban land expansion. Based on the analysis above, we need to construct a suitable model by selecting the appropriate method, and make it implemented. (2) The complexity of urban land use system and mechanism of urban land expansion. Based on a brief analysis of the complexity of urban land use systems and the inevitability of urban land sprawl, the paper analyzes the factors of urban land use expansion from the aspects of land area and spatial expansion systematicly, and explores characteristics of these factors’ action in different stages of economic development. (3) Analysis of the constraints for urban land simulation. Based on the exploration of positive and negative effects of urban land expansion, the paper analyzes theoretically the connotation and characteristics of reasonable expansion of urban land, and puts forward that the simulation model of urban expansion should be constrained by land area and spatial factors. Then, it studies the methods to analyze the constraints of land area and spatial factors by the support of theories and methods such as Variable Weight Theory, Fuzzy Set Theory, Scenario Analysis and economic theory, etc. (4) Method and implementation of urban land expansion simulation. Considering the requirements of spatial control of urban land expansion in land use planning, the paper constructs a simulation model for urban land expansion based on Constrained Fuzzy Cellular Automata (CFCA), which takes land area and spatial factors as the main constraints of urban land expansion simulation. Then, the model of CFCA is implemented by using ModelBuider based on the ArcGIS platform. (5)Finally, this paper makes a case study in Taicang city based on the theories and methods above.From the research above, some conclusions are drawn out as following:First, as one kind of decision support tools for land use planning, the model of urban land expansion simulation should be constrained by additional constraints combining with land use planning and land use management, rather than predict the future only base on the previous expansion trend of urban land. Thus, it can provide a more comprehensive support system for urban land spatial control in land use planning by building a relatively complete theoretical system of urban land expansion simulation.Second, the basis and premise is laws and mechanism of the complex system in study of urban land use system simulation. There are some drivers for changes of urban land area, such as the urban population growth, the acceleration of urbanization, economic and industrial development, technological progress, urban transport development, comparative advantage of land, fixed assets investment and historical factors, etc. And there are also several braking forces, include eco-security, regional land resource endowment, food security and land-control policies, etc. And the factors to affect the spatial expansion of urban land include administrative divisions, ecological factors, natural environment, geographic location, relevant regulatory policies and self-regulations of urban land use system and so on. These factors have different influences at different stages of economic development, therefore, it is necessary to identify the stage of socio-economic developments, analysis the characteristics of urban land expansion and the main factors in the study area when doing the simulation study of urban land expansion. The result of the case study of Taicang city from 1989 to 2008 indicates that:the speed of urban land expansion is high and even accelerating, the economic return of urban land use is rising, and the waste of land has been eased. In term of spatial variation of urban land expansion, the focus of urban land are moving to northeast, and the compact degree of urban land is lower and lower, so that the large-scale land use benefits has been imitated. Besides, Taicang city is at the stage of overall industrialization, the factors of urban land expansion mainly including the second and third industrial added value and its proportion, the labor force of the second and third industry, urban population, investment in fixed assets, the city center, high-speed intersection, general roads, national highways and provincial roads, and so on.Third, generally speaking, to expand the urban land reasonably, the scale of urban land should be reasonable, so does the spatial distribution of additional urban land. So the area of urban land and spatial factors should be the constraints of the simulation model. Taking Taicang city as an example, result shows that the urban land scale of Taicang city is larger than corresponding reasonable scale except for 2006 and 2007 without considering the ecosystem services value of land, while considering the value of ecosystem services, the scale of urban land is also larger than corresponding reasonable scale during the period of study. Depending on whether to considere the land ecosystem services value and the speed of socio-economic development, the paper sets up 6 kinds of scenarios and calculated the reasonable urban land scale for each scenario. And then,3 scenario programs are selected as the area constraints of urban expansion simulation on the base of the socio-economic development stage in Taicang city.Forth, it is entirely feasible to introduce cellular automata model into the simulation of the urban land expansion in land use planning. By introducing the synthetic method of variable weight, fuzzy set theory, a model of fuzzy cellular automata (CFCA), which is mainly constrained by the ecological suitability, location suitability and reasonable urban land use scale, has been built in this paper, thus to handle the fuzzy decision-making problems in the process of urban expansion rationally. Simulation results of urban land expansion in Taicang city show that the model of CFCA can reflect the expansion law of urban land. And the simulation results of the three scenarios in 2015 and 2020 not only reflect the compact development mode, but also take the ecological benefits of urban expansion into account. So the results could help improving efficiency of urban land use. they are also agreement with the request of "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" in development of Taicang City. Therefore, the simulation results can be used to guide the urban expansion reasonably in land use planning.Some suggestions are proposed to control the urban land expansion from the aspects of urban land scale and spatial expansion based on the conclusions above:firstly, the ecosystem services value of land should be included in the urban land expansion cost, and the transfer mechanism between rural land and urban land should be further improved; Secondly, flexible land use planning should be made, and urban land scale should be determined under multiple scenarios in the planning; Thirdly, performance appraisal system of "Land use & Economic Development" should be established, and the annual plan management system for land use should be improved; Fourthly, the priority of urban expansion areas should be classfied, and the transfer system of urban land development rights could be tried out; Finally, the various types of urban land should be distributed rationally by scientific urban planning, and the concept of using land must be improve in local government.更多还原