【作者】 朱振亚；

【导师】 王树进；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 消费、投资和净出口被誉为拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”,在这三驾马车中,消费的作用是最主要的,因为无论是发达国家还是发展中国家,消费在一国的国内生产总值中所占的份额均最大。已有研究表明,中国居民消费率大大低于国际水平,其主因是中国农村消费市场疲软。因此,扩大内需其实重点是要扩大农村居民消费需求。特别是在全球金融危机仍然蔓延的时候,提高农村居民的消费需求显得尤为重要。在统筹城乡发展备受重视的今天,人们往往会忽视不同地域农村居民的消费差异。其实中国各地自然地理、经济发展和社会文化的不同,必然导致东中西部农村居民消费情况的不同。所以,研究东、中、西部地区农村居民消费间所具有的差异非常有意义一一通过对经济转型期东、中、西部农村居民消费的不均衡程度、消费水平、消费结构、与GDP的关系及造成地区间农村居民消费差异成因的分析研究,为有针对性地制定旨在提高农村居民消费、扩大内需的政策提供参考依据,也为统筹东、中、西部农村区域发展、统筹城乡协调发展提供智力支撑。本文主要研究内容是：(1)东中西部农村居民消费阶段划分,为后续的实证分析提供时间维度。(2)东中西部农村居民消费的不均衡程度的测度和比较分析。(3)东中西部农村居民消费水平和消费结构差异的实证研究。(4)东中西部农村居民人均消费对全国人均GDP的贡献度测定。(5)构建斜坡梯度模型分析造成东中西部农村居民消费差异的主要成因。论文共分九个部分。第一章：导言。提出要研究的问题,阐述所要研究问题的意义,在文献综述的基础上,提出论文研究目标和研究内容,并对论文研究方法、数据来源和处理及技术路线、相关概念界定、论文结构安排、可能的创新与不足等分别作了介绍。第二章：消费经济理论的简要回顾。第三章：农村居民消费阶段划分实证：消费和收入双重视角。这一章分别从消费和收入视角,分别对东、中、西部农村居民的人均消费支出对时间进行回归拟合,探究农村居民消费在经济转型期是否具有阶段性特征。另外,出于城乡消费对比需要,对城镇居民消费也做了同样的回归拟合。第四章：地区间农村居民消费不平等状况的Theil指数分解。本章主要运用Theil指数分解,对东中西部农村居民消费的不平等(不均衡)情况进行了分析,从时间和城乡两个维度探讨了农村居民消费的不平等状况到底是地区内部更甚还是地区之间更甚。第五章：地区间农村居民消费水平差异研究。本章主要从时间和城乡两个维度比较分析东中西部地区间农村居民人均消费支出差距及各单项消费支出间差距,具体比较分析了消费支出数额、消费增幅、消费增速等方面的情况。第六章：地区间农村居民消费结构差异研究。本章主要运用改进的ELES模型,从时间和城乡两个维度,分析比较了东中西部农村居民消费的边际消费倾向、收入弹性和自价格弹性等方面的差异。第七章：东中西部农村居民消费对GDP增长的影响差异研究。本章分别基于双对数经济计量模型和GDP支出法恒等式,测算了城乡居民消费、政府消费、资本形成和净出口对GDP增长的影响大小。第八章：地区间农村居民消费差异成因分析。本章主要构建了斜坡梯度模型,从理论角度定性地分析了造成东中西部农村居民消费差异的原因。第九章：主要研究结论及政策建议。总结归纳本学位论文的主要研究结论,并在第八章分析的基础上,提出了相应的繁荣农村消费市场、缩小地区间农村居民消费差异的政策建议。研究主要得到如下结论：(1)东、中、西部农村居民人均消费和收入在1993-2007年间均存在阶段性特征,1999年是拐点出现之年,消费(收入)增长率先减后增。而东、中、西部城镇居民人均消费和收入在同期没有出现阶段性特征,消费(收入)增长率一直呈上升趋势。(2)农村居民消费地区间差距大于地区内部差距,而城镇居民消费是地区内部(主要指东部)差距大于地区间差距,且农村居民消费的区域间差距明显大于城镇居民消费的区域间差距。无论是1999年前还是1999年后,城乡居民消费差异度由大到小的顺序均是：西部>中部>东部,即越是经济落后地区城乡居民间的消费差异越大。(3)在1993-2007年(经济转型)期间,农村居民年人均消费支出、年人均消费增幅、年人均消费增长率由大到小的顺序均是：东部>中部>西部。人均消费支出和消费增幅的相对差距是经济越落后的地区城乡差距越大,但城乡居民消费增速的相对差距则是经济越落后的地区差距越小,即经济落后地区存在一种使城乡居民消费支出间的相对差距缩小的潜在力量,且这种潜在力量在1999年后表现得更为明显。(4)如果规定某单项消费品消费增速快(大于9%)且边际消费倾向呈上升态势,则称其为消费热点。按照这个标准,1999年前东、中、西部农村居民的消费热点主要是交通通讯、文教娱乐和医疗保健三项,而1999年后东、中、西部农村居民共同的消费热点主要为交通通讯、医疗保健、居住和衣着四项,且交通通讯和医疗保健在1999年前后均是消费热点中的热点。1999年后与1999年前相比还有一个明显的变化就是——文教娱乐这个消费热点开始降温,因为1999年后东、中、西部农村居民的文教娱乐消费增速在七个单项消费中均为最小,这可能是由于国家义务教育免费导致农民教育负担下降的结果。(5)1999年前农村居民总平均消费倾向是：东部>西部>中部,1999年后是：西部>中部>东部,可见,1999年后农村居民消费欲望在经济越落后的地方表现得越强烈,而城镇居民不是这样。1999年后各地区内部城乡居民边际消费倾向间的差距缩小了,且西部城乡间缩小的幅度最大,中部次之,东部最小(6)东部、中部、西部地区农村居民所有类别消费品的需求收入弹性(即总需求收入弹性)在1993-2007年期间也表现出了阶段性特征,即1999年前先升后降,1999年后呈平稳上升趋势,且1999年后东中西部地区间收入弹性差距呈缩小趋势。这说明东、中、西部农村居民在经济转型期(1993-2007)内增加的收入用于消费的越来越多,而用于储蓄的越来越少。近年来,东部、中部、西部农村居民对所有消费品的平均收入弹性已经接近1,地区间差别很小,说明东中西部农村居民收入增加的部分几乎已经全部用于消费。另外,食品和衣着消费需求收入弹性与地区经济发达程度呈正相关,居住和交通通讯需求收入弹性与地区经济发达程度基本呈负相关,家庭设备及服务、医疗保健和文教娱乐需求收入弹性与地区经济发达程度关系不大。1999年后各地区内部城乡居民间总收入弹性差距均缩小了。(7)除交通通讯外,东中西部食品、衣着、居住、家庭设备及服务、医疗保健、文教娱乐的自价格弹性在1993-2007年期间的整体变化趋势均是逐渐增大的,这说明东中西部农村居民在经济转型期内对各类消费品的价格敏感度都增大了(尽管交通通讯的价格弹性在1999年前上升而1999年后下降,但交通通讯1999年后的自价格弹性仍然高于1999年前)。除了1999年后的交通通讯外,其它类别消费品的自价格弹性的绝对值无论是1999年前还是在1999年后均表现为：东部>中部>西部,这与15年期间的平均情况是一致的。1999年后对各地城乡居民而言均只有交通通讯属于富有弹性商品,其它均为缺乏弹性商品。(8)居民消费尤其是农村居民消费对GDP带动力量微弱(农村居民消费的带动力小于城镇居民,甚至比政府消费还要小)。1999年前和1999年后,相同地区城镇居民人均消费对全国人均GDP的贡献均大于农村居民人均消费对全国人均GDP的贡献。(9)通过构建斜坡梯度模型,从需求和供给两个角度分析了消费环境(主要是公共产品存量)、人均收入水平和城镇化水平引致东中西部农村居民消费差异的内在机理。分析得知,导致东中西部农村居民消费差异的主要因素是消费环境(公共产品存量)、人均收入水平和城镇化水平的不同。更多还原

【Abstract】 Consumption, investment and net exports are three carriages that can spur economic growth, and consumption is the most important carriage among these, because domestic consumption shares the greatest part in GDP both in the developed and developing countries. Studies have shown that Chinese consumption rates considerably below the international level, mainly because of weakness in rural consumption market. So, to expand domestic demand is to focus on expanding the rural consumption in fact. Increasing consumption demand of rural residents is very important, particularly in the global finance crisis is still spreading. When urban and rural development has being planned as a whole, people tend to ignore the differences of resident’s consumption among rural areas. In fact, natural, economic, social and cultural differences among rural areas will inevitably lead to differences on consumption of rural residents. So studying the differences on consumption of rural residents is very significant and meaningful. The meanings are:Through the analysis on non-equilibrium, level, structure, the relationship with GDP of dwellers’ consumption and the causes of regional differences in rural household consumption, we not only can provide a reference to the policy-making that can expand domestic demand and improve the consumption of rural residents, but also can provide intellectual support for harmonizing the development of the eastern, central and western rural areas and harmonizing the development of urban and rural.The main contents of the dissertation are:(1) A division of consumption stages during the year 1993-2007 for rural household in the east, central and western areas. This division provides a time dimension for the subsequent positive analysis. (2) Measuring and comparing the uneven degree of consumption of rural residents in each area and among the three areas. (3) Positive analysis on the differences of the consumption level and structure among the east, central and western areas. (4) Measuring the contribution of rural household consumption to GDP’s promotion in each area. (5) Constructing a slope and trapezia model to explaining the main causes of differences of consumption among different areas.The dissertation contains nine parts. ChapterⅠ: Introduction. ChapterⅡ: Brief review of economic theory of consumption. ChapterⅢ: Positive analysis on the division of rural household consumption:double perspectives of consumption and income. ChapterⅣ: Decomposition and comparison of regional inequality of rural household consumption using Theil index technique. ChapterⅤ: Regional differences in consumption level of rural residents. ChapterⅥ: Regional differences in the consumption structure of rural residents. ChapterⅦ: Differences on the contribution of the east, central and western rural household consumption to state GDP’s Growth. ChapterⅧ: Analysis the causes leading to the Regional differences in rural household consumption. Chapter IX:Main conclusions of the dissertation and corresponding policy suggestions.The main conclusions of the thesis are:(1) Consumption and income of rural residents in each area is existing phase feature during the years from 1993 to 2007 and the inflexions are all in 1999.Consumption (income) growth rate of rural residents decreases first and then increases. But the consumption and income of urban residents in each area is not existing phase feature in the same term. Consumption (income) growth rate of urban residents increases at all times.(2) The gap of rural household consumption among areas is greater than the gap within each area. While the gap of urban consumption within each area (the eastern area is representative) is greater than the gap among three areas. Rural consumption gap among areas is significantly larger than urban gap among areas. The descending order of the gap between rural and urban either before 1999 or after 1999 is:the west> the central> the east, that is, the more economically backward of the area is, the more of the gap between urban and rural residents’consumption in the same area is large.(3) The per capita consumption expenditure, the growing amount of expenditure, the growth rate of expenditure of rural residents, ranked by descending order is:the eastern >the central>the western. The relative gaps on the amount of consumption expenditure and consumption growth are much larger in the more backward area, but the relative gap on the growing rate of rural consumption is just opposite. That is to say, there is a potential strength in backward areas that can shorten the relative gaps between rural and urban residents’consumption, and the potential power is more obvious after 1999.(4) Consumption hotspot is assumed by the rule that if the growing rate of a single consumption is fast (more than 9%) and its MPC is increasing. According to this rule, the hotspots of rural consumption in each area before 1999 are mainly transportation and communication, cultural, educational and recreational articles and services, medicines and medical services, the hotspots after 1999 are mainly transportation and communication, medicines and medical services, residence and clothing. There is a significant change that cultural, educational and recreational articles and services began to cool after 1999, because the growth rate of it is the minimum in seven items, resulting from the free of charge in compulsory education.(5) The trend of total APC of rural residents before 1999 is:the eastern>the western >the central. The trend after 1999 is:the western>the central>the eastern. It obviously shows that rural residents’desire of consumption in backward areas is stronger than that in developed areas. But urban consumption is not the case as rural. The gap of MPC between rural and urban residents in the same area is narrowed after 1999. And what the narrowed range is:the western>the central>the eastern.(6) The whole income elasticity of demand of rural residents(WIED for short) either in the eastern, the central or the western area also shows phase feature during the period of 1993-2007.That is, the income elasticity of demand increases first then decreases later before 1999, the elasticity of demand rises steadily after 1999. And the gap of income elasticity of demand among rural areas shows a narrowed trend. It indicates that farmers consume their increasing income more and more, saves their increasing income less and less during the period of economic transformation. In recent years, the average WIED in each area is close to 1 and there is a small difference among three areas. So we can conclude that farmers consume their increased income more and save increased income less. In addition, income elasticity of demand of food and clothing relates positively with regional economic development, elasticity of residence and transportation and communication relates negatively with regional economic development, elasticity of household facilities, articles and services, medicines and health care, cultural, educational and recreational articles and services relates slightly with regional economic development. The gap of WIED between rural and urban residents in each area is reduced after 1999.(7) The whole trend of price elasticity of these items which contain food, clothing, residence, household facilities, articles and services, medicines and health care, cultural, educational and recreational articles and services, except transportation and communication, is gradually increasing during 1993-2007. It shows that price sensitivity of Chinese farmers turns to more evident. In addition to transportation and communication before 1999, absolute value of price elasticity of each of the other consumption items is always:the eastern>the central>the western, this is consistent to the average value of 15 years. After 1999, only transportation and communication is rich in elasticity, the others are all inelasticity.(8) Consumption, especially consumption of rural residents, possesses a weak driving force to GDP (the force is smaller than consumption of urban residents, even much smaller than the government consumption). Comparing the contribution to GDP, urban resident is greater than rural resident in the same areas before 1999 or after 1999.(9) The thesis analyses the inherent mechanism which leads to the differences among three rural areas from the perspective of both demand and supply by constructing a slope and trapezia model. The main factors which lead to those differences are consumption environment (the stock of public goods), income and the level of urbanization.更多还原