【作者】 张晖；

【导师】 胡浩；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 畜禽养殖业污染是农业面源污染的主要来源之一,随着我国畜禽业快速发展,我国畜禽养殖污染问题日益严重,而且在未来一段时间内还会继续恶化。这是畜禽养殖业发展与资源环境压力之间的矛盾,也是经济发展与环境保护之间矛盾的具体体现。因此如何在畜牧业稳定发展的同时保护好生态环境,确保畜牧业可持续发展是当前及今后一个相当长的时期行业内外的一项基本工作内容。关于经济增长和环境质量影响的研究大多集中在环境库兹涅茨曲线上(EKC),根据EKC曲线自身的理论假设,经济增长最终会带来环境质量的改善并不是自发形成的,而是由于经济发展所带来的诸如经济结构的改变(Crossman & Krueger,1992)、科技进步(Selden　& Song,1994)、国际贸易(Lopez,1994)、环境奢侈品(McConnel,1997)以及政府的环境政策的制定和实施(Torras-Boyce,1998)所带来的曲线形状的改变。那么,中国在经济发展的过程中畜牧业面源污染情况是否也存在着这种“倒U型”的曲线关系?如果存在,结合中国经济发展的地域不平衡的特点,存在的机理又是什么?对于这些问题的回答有助于我们从宏观层面上把握我国畜牧业面源污染的现状及其特征,并有助于正确选择调控手段以实现畜牧业的可持续发展。为解决经济发展过程伴随的污染问题,Pearce and Palmer (2001)发现OECD国家随着经济成长,政府逐步提高环境保护支出。Antle and Heidebrink (1995)和Komen etal.(1997)等实证文献曾提出EKC成立的原因可能来自环境商品的奢侈品特征,使得经济成长过程中政府环境规制政策和环境保护投入快速增加,污染才会逐步减少。但是基于中国畜牧业生产主体是众多分散农户的特殊性,政府环境政策规制的主体是众多的农户,因此农户应该是我们分析和解决畜牧业面源污染问题的基本单位。这些农户的行为取向,也即他们对粪尿处理环节的不同方式的选择将决定畜牧业面源污染控制的成效。只有在理清农户行为与畜牧业业面源污染之间的关系,通过一定的政策来约束和优化农户行为,才能从根本上减轻畜牧业面源污染强度。因此,本文以经济增长和环境质量之间的环境库兹涅茨曲线关系的作用机理作为逻辑起点,以曲劳的养分平衡法理论作为计算畜牧业污染总量的基础,理论分析畜牧业面源污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在基础、实证分析我国畜牧业面源污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征,并尝试从我国畜牧业生产的主体——养殖户的角度出发,运用行为理论探求我国畜牧业生产主体对畜牧业环境污染的认知、进行畜禽粪便无害化处理的意愿以及影响其进行实际处理行为方式选择的主要因素,以期为我国畜牧业面源污染的防治提供一个系统的框架。围绕上述分析框架,本文采用规范研究和实证研究相结合的方法,主要研究内容如下：第一章导论。依次论述本研究的研究背景、问题的提出、研究目标及假说、数据来源、研究方法及框架、研究创新点和不足之处。第二章概念界定与文献综述。主要界定本研究中的相关概念和对国内外的相关研究文献进行总结和梳理。第三章理论基础和分析框架。在对相关理论进行总结后,提出本文的理论分析框架,主要包括基于养分平衡法理论的畜牧业面源污染指标过剩氮测度模型的构建、畜牧业面源污染与经济增长的环境库兹涅茨曲线验证模型构建、并分别从政府部门的环境质量需求收入弹性、地方政府的不同环境政策选择博弈等角度探求畜牧业面源污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线存在的理论基础,并根据政府环境政策对农户家庭决策的传导机制分析建立农户畜禽粪便处理行为选择决策模型。第四章中国畜牧业面源污染现状分析和畜牧业面源污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线估计。在分析了我国畜牧业发展现状的基础上,介绍了畜牧业面源污染的种类,根据畜禽粪便发生量的计算公式测算近年来我国各地区畜禽养殖污染物的排放量(1990-2007)、在此基础上根据养分平衡法理论测度我国各地区畜禽粪便氮素污染的总量及地区分布特征。根据即经济增长——环境污染曲线具有“倒U型”特征,运用养分平衡法计算结果作为污染物的衡量指标,运用面板数据进行畜牧业面源污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线验证,并计算其理论的转折点。第五章不同类型农户对于畜牧业污染认知研究。主要根据crosstabs列联表分析和卡方检验分析不同经营规模及生产特征的农户对畜牧业面源污染认知行为并找出其差别。第六章不同类型农户参与畜禽粪便无害化处理意愿的影响因素分析。主要据实地调查,运用二元logit模型对养猪户畜禽粪便无害化处理意愿行为进行实证分析。第七章不同类型农户进行畜禽粪便处理行为的影响因素分析。在对调查地的现有处理方式进行总结后,根据国家环保总局的规定和各地方政府的法规总结并对现有处理方式进行排序,根据调查数据,运用有序logit模型对养猪户畜禽粪便处理行为选择进行实证分析。第八章结论和政策建议。在对全文进行总结的基础上提出相关政策建议。围绕上述研究内容,本研究得到的主要结论如下：1、随着畜牧业的迅速发展,畜牧养殖业粪便废弃物的产量迅速增长,污染严重。按流失率30%计算,2007年仅全国畜禽粪便流失进入水体的COD(化学需氧量)这一项指标就达到1784.2215万吨,远远超过2007年全国排放的工业废水中化学需氧量排放量511.06万吨和全国排放的生活污水中化学需氧量排放量870.753万吨,甚至超过两者之和1381.813万吨。根据曲劳(Truog)的养分平衡法理论计算结果也表明2007年全国总的过剩氮量已经达到2911.85万吨。对全国经济发达和经济落后地区的比较分析则表明：在经济发展落后的地区,污染总量呈现出一定的增幅趋势,而经济发达地区污染总量呈现出下降的趋势。2、畜牧业面源污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线验证结果表明人均“过剩氮”排放量与人均GDP之间存在显著的“倒U型”曲线关系,转折点出现在人均GDP12639元(1990年不变价格)的临界值处。从全国平均水平来看,2007年的人均GDP为8561.171元,远未达到转折点12639元的水平,这说明畜牧业面源污染的危害在相当长的时间内仍有继续增加的趋势。仍然处于EKC的左半段,则必须在经济发展和控制畜牧业污染排放之间进行权衡选择。3、本文验证了环境库兹涅茨曲线存在的理论基础：政府环境质量需求的收入弹性为正,并进一步验证了污染水平地区间差异的原因。同时本文分析政府职责与畜牧业生产主体的静态博弈过程,通过比较发现如下结论：一是政府是否采取环境管制以及环境管制的力度对畜牧业生产主体的畜禽粪污处理决策有着非常重要的影响；二是如果政府部门能够承担起管制失职的责任时,政府的行为将会带来积极的效果,主要表现在可以提高畜牧业生产主体进行畜禽粪污处理的概率。据此本文认为随着收入水平的不断增加,对于环境质量的需求也日益增加,因此政府部门必须承担起管制失职的责任,在这样的前提下,相对于经济发展落后的政府部门,经济发达地区的政府实施环境管制的概率也就越大,这有助于环境质量的改善,同时也为环境库兹涅茨曲线存在的地区差异情况给出了一个新的解释。4、列联表分析(crosstabs)和卡方检验的统计分析结果表明农户的受教育程度、养殖年限、养殖规模与农户对于畜牧业污染认知之间关系显著,但各地区的农户对于畜牧业生产会带来臭气和污水污染都较认同,对于畜牧业生产会带来氮磷污染导致土壤和水体富营养化的污染种类几乎没有认知。二元logit模型分析农户畜禽粪便无害化处理的意愿结果表明,农户的养殖规模、农户对畜牧业引起的环境污染认知程度、可控态度以及政府补贴对农户畜禽粪便无害化处理的意愿的概率具有显著影响。地区间的经济发展水平、自然禀赋条件、社会文化环境、养殖传统等都有较大的差异,这些差异都有可能对农户进行畜禽粪便无害化处理的意愿产生影响。有序logit模型分析农户的畜禽粪便处理行为选择的结果表明,农户的养殖规模、养殖年限、养殖场所所在区域以及政府补贴对农户畜禽粪便处理行为的概率具有显著影响。虽然农户对污染的认知程度和进行无害化处理的意愿对农户禽粪便处理行为的影响方向都为正,但均未通过统计检验。这也符合计划行为理论的分析,即农户的最终行为选择会受到农户对于污染的认知程度以及农户进行无害化处理的意愿的影响,但没有理由证明农户具有污染的认知和参与无害化处理的意愿就一定会进行最优化处理。根据以上的研究成果,本研究提出制定和完善实现畜禽养殖业发展与污染防治一体化的环境政策,实施对畜禽养殖业的全方位环境管理、制定科学的补贴方案,实施对畜禽粪便处理技术推广的财政补贴政策、加强对养殖农户环境意识宣传和教育和环境,提高养殖主体环境保护意识以及进一步推进农户的适度规模养殖建设,强制实行畜禽粪便处理等政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Pollution of livestock husbandry is a major source of Agricultural non-point source pollution. With the rapid development of China’s livestock industry, the problem of pollution is getting worse, and continues to deteriorate in the future. This is the conflict between development of livestock industry and environmental restrictions, and it is the concrete embodiment of the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection. So how to realize a equilibrium between stable growth in livestock husbandry and harmonious ecological environment, to ensure the sustainable development of livestock industry, should be concerned as the basic job both inside and outside the industry in a fairly long period of time.Most literatures on economy growth and environmental quality focus on the environmental Kuznetz-curve (EKC). According to the original hypothesis of EKC, the quality of environment won’t improve with the economy growth until transformation of economic structure (Crossman & Krueger,1992), scientific and technological progress (Selden & Song,1994), international trade (Lopez,1994), environmental luxury (Mc Connel,1997) and implication of environment-friendly policy(Torras-Boyce,1998), which are induced by the booming economy. The question is if there is a inverse-U relation between economic development and livestock husbandry in China. And if exists, what is the mechanism, especially under the situation of geographical imbalance in China’s economic development? Though answering these questions, we can grasp the status and characteristics of China’s livestock husbandry on the macro level, and take correct choice of macroeconomic regulation and policy instrument to make sure the sustainable development of livestock industry.To solve the problem associated with economic development, there can be seen often the government put into prevention work. Pearce and Palmer (2001) found that the governments from OECD countries had gradually raised public expenditure on prevention as economic growth. Some empirical EKC literatures have proposed the establishment of the reason that may come from the luxury features of environmental goods, making the process of economic growth with rapid increase in expenditure on environment protection and control, and decrease in pollution step by step (Seldon and Song,1994, Antle and Heidebrink,1995, Komen et al,1997). As most production units in China’s livestock industry are breeding farmers, they should become the basic ground of our research. The choices they choose to treat the waste will determine the effectiveness of livestock husbandry non-point source of pollution control. Figure out the relation between farmers behavior and livestock husbandry non-point source of pollution, and then restrict the behavior through a set of policy, is the fundamental way to reduce non-point source pollution intensity of livestock husbandry.Therefore, this paper take the mechanism of EKC as logical origin, using nutrition balance of Truog to calculate the sum of livestock industry pollution, to analyze theoretically the ground of livestock non-point source pollution and EKC and empirically state the features of EKC in China, while try to use behavior theory to investigate the breeding farmers’cognition and wish to waste treatment, in order to propose a systematic framework for livestock non-point source pollution control in China.Through the combination of normative research and empirical research, the major content of this paper are arranged as follows:Chapter 1: Introduction. Study background, put forward the issue, objectives & hypothesis, data resources, research methods and framework, Research Innovations and deficiencies.Chapter 2:Definitions and summaries. Define the major concepts in the research and review and sort out literatures from domestic and international.Chapter 3:theory basis and analyzed framework. Based on the summaries of relative theories, put forward the theoretical framework, including estimating model of nitrogen surplus according to the nutrition balance by Truog, EKC which tests the relation between livestock non-point source pollution and economic growth, as well as income elasticity of demand to environmental quality and policy choice of identical local government. Furthermore, establish the decision-making model of farmers’waste control according to the transmission mechanism from government environmental policy.Chapter 4:analysis the current situation of livestock husbandry non-point source pollution in China, estimation of EKC. Based on the analysis of status quo of livestock industry development in China, introduce the categories of livestock industry non-point source pollution, estimate the emission of livestock waste recent years by using the formula for calculating the amount of manure, and then describe the sum and region distribution of nitrogen surplus quantity. According to the inverse-U shape of economic growth and environmental pollution curve, test the EKC of livestock husbandry non-point source pollution through panel data, and calculate the theoretical turning point.Chapter 5:study on cognition of livestock pollution by different farmers. Test whether farmers with different scale and productive characteristics have diversity in pollution cognition through crosstabs andχ2 tests.Chapter 7:factors which will influence the wish of the livestock and poultry manure harmless treatment on different types of farmers. According to the surveys, establish the empirical analysis on pig breeding farmers’wishes to do the harmless treatment through binary-logit model.Chapter 7:factors which will influence the action of the livestock and poultry manure treatment on different types of farmers. After summarizing the existed treating methods in survey region, sort the methods by regulations from State Environmental Protection Administration and local governments. Establish the empirical analysis on pig breeding farmers’actions to do the manure treatment by ordered-logit model.Chapter 8:conclusions and policy recommendations. Based on the summary of the paper, relevant policy recommendations are made.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:1. The amount of livestock husbandry manure has rapidly grown and made serious pollution. Calculate the wastage rate of 30% by 2007, only the loss of the national livestock and poultry manure into water bodies of COD (chemical oxygen demand) that an indicator reached 1784.2215 million tons, far exceeding the 2007 national emission of industrial waste water chemical oxygen demand emissions of 5.1106 million tons and the national sewage discharge of chemical oxygen demand emissions of 8.70753 million tons, even more than the sum of 13.81813 million tons of both. According to Truog nutrition balance theory, calculation results also show that in 2007 the country’s total nitrogen surplus has reached 29.1185 million tons. The national results show that livestock husbandry waste continued to grow in developing regions while began to decline in developed regions.2. The result of EKC of livestock husbandry non-point source pollution shows that there is a significant inverse-U relation between nitrogen surplus emission per capital and GDP per capital, and the turning point is at 12639 yuan(1990 constant prices) of GDP per capital. From the point of national average view, GDP per capital in 2007 is 8561.171yuan, far lower than the turning point. The result told us harm caused by livestock husbandry non-point source pollution will remain in a quite period of time, and we must choose the equilibrium between economic growth and livestock industry emission.3. This paper tests the theoretical basis of EKC:the income elasticity of demand to environmental quality is positive, furthermore, gives the reason to explain the diversity of regions. At the same time, the paper analyzes the static game between government and breeding farmers. Then, the paper had come to some conclusions:firstly, whether the government takes regulations or to what extent to implicate the regulations influence the breeding farmers’ decisions on manure treatment. Secondly, if government takes responsibilities of negligence, the regulations would affect positive, especially not only improve the possibility of treatment, but also the regulation duty. According to this, with income growth, the demand for environmental quality would increase, and the government has to take the responsibility. Under this condition, developed regions are more possible to implicate regulations than developing regions, and improve the environmental quality. It also support the diversity of region in EKC.4. Crosstabs and χ2 tests all show that education and scale appear to have significant relation with livestock pollution cognition. Farmers from different regions have common sense on ugly smell and dirty water, but they have no idea about Soil and water eutrophication caused by nitrogen and phosphor surplus.The results of binary-logit model show that scale, cognition of pollution, attitude, subsidies have significant influence on possibility of wish to manure harmless treatment. Economic level, natural resources, social and cultural environment vary in different regions, and these differences would influent the wish to manure harmless treatment.The results of ordered-logit model show that scale, breeding years, location and subsidies have positive effects on the possibility of treat actions. Cognition of pollution and wish to take actions has positive effect, but cannot pass the statistic tests. These results are consistent with the analysis of theory of planned behavior, as farmers final decisions would be affected by cognition and wish, but there is no definite reason to take the optimal treatment no matter if farmers have the cognition and wish.According to our research, the paper had made some policy recommendations for the end. For example, the implementation of the livestock manure processing technology, financial subsidies plans, strengthen on environmental awareness and education, and further promoting the building of large-scale breeding, moderate imposing the livestock manure treatment.更多还原