【作者】 张锋；

【导师】 胡浩；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,全国各主要湖泊、河流、近海水体的富营养化和地下水污染事件频发和农产品质量安全问题愈演愈烈,特别是太湖蓝藻事件的出现成为水体污染事件的转折点,引起了人们对农业生态环境的广泛关注。长期以来,伴随着经济社会的快速发展,中国农业集约化的压力持续加大,农业化肥的投入数量和施用强度不断增加,直接导致中国化肥投入的面源污染问题不断加重,而且在未来的一段时间内还会继续恶化。尽管环境保护者和政策制定者已经认识到化肥施用对农业环境的破坏和农业可持续发展的负面影响,但是人们还没有找到切实有效的控制与管理手段。因此,掌握中国化肥投入面源污染的变化规律及其驱动机制,并引导农民采用亲环境的施肥技术、降低农户化肥施用水平、优化化肥投入结构,进而提高化肥利用效率,有效降低并解决化肥过量和不合理施用所带来的面源污染问题,最终实现农业与生态环境的可持续发展。根据环境经济学理论,环境问题与经济发展密切相关,一方面,经济增长通过扩大经济规模、改变经济结构、提高亲环境技术的开发应用水平等途径影响环境,可以说,经济增长是影响环境问题产生和变化的决定因素；另一方面,农业是国民经济的基础,过量和不合理化肥投入所形成的面源污染问题能够对农业的可持续发展产生不利影响,最终通过产业关联的放大效应影响宏观经济的发展；第三,将农业环境污染的外部成本纳入生产函数和消费函数,进而对宏观经济增长产生作用。那么在现实中,中国化肥投入面源污染与经济增长之间的相互关系如何?中国化肥投入的面源污染是否已经对中国宏观经济产生了明显的负面影响?如何对二者之间在现实中相互关系的表现进行合理的解释。环境库兹涅茨曲线的理论假设表明,经济增长通过改变经济规模、经济结构、技术水平,通过改变公众和政府环境的需求弹性,通过促进政府制定并实施相应的环境政策和制度等方面对生态环境的变化产生一系列的影响。研究者(Grossman G M & Krueger A B,1995)认为经济增长与环境质量之间的关系类似于经济发展、收入分配之间的倒U型关系,也就是说,随着经济的发展,环境污染水平呈现出先上升后下降的倒U型曲线的变化特征。那么中国化肥投入的面源污染与宏观经济增长之间是否也存在这种耦合关系?如果存在,中国化肥投入环境库兹涅茨曲线变动规律的影响因素包括哪些方面?各因素的影响方向、影响机理与作用程度如何?。从本质上看,中国化肥投入面源污染产生并不断加重的直接原因包括两个方面：第一,农户在农业生产过程中的化肥投入过量,而且这种过量程度在不断提高,造成化肥养分大量过剩并流失；第二,农户化肥施用结构不合理,使得农业生产过程中化肥的利用效率很低。因此,减少农户化肥投入数量并优化化肥施用结构是控制并降低化肥投入面源污染的关键。基于中国农业生产主体是众多分散的超小规模经营农户的特殊性,这些农户的行为取向,也即他们在农业生产过程中的化肥投入行为和亲环境化肥施用技术的采用行为直接决定中国化肥投入面源污染控制政策的成效。只有在理清农户行为与化肥投入面源污染之间的关系,通过一定的政策来约束和优化农户行为,才能从根本上减轻化肥投入面源污染强度及其危害。因此,本研究以中国化肥投入面源污染的变化及其与经济增长之间关系的理论阐述和实证验证为逻辑起点,以亲环境化肥施用技术的推广应用为核心,利用基于单元调查的清单分析方法对中国化肥投入的面源污染程度进行测度,阐明中国化肥投入面源污染变化特征。利用上述测算结果,本文首先对中国化肥投入面源污染与经济增长双向作用关系及其表现形式进行理论与实证的分析,并对中国化肥投入面源污染环境库兹涅茨曲线进行了理论分析与实证的验证,并从理论和实证的对中国化肥投入面源污染时空演变规律的影响因素进行研究。最后,本文尝试从我国农业生产主体——农户的角度出发,理论探求中国农业生产主体化肥投入决策和亲环境施肥技术行为的主要影响因素,并利用调研数据进行实证分析,以期从引导农户减量施肥和优化施肥结构的角度为有效降低并控制中国化肥投入面源污染提供一个系统的框架。围绕上述研究内容,本研究的主要结论如下：1、整体来看,中国化肥施用总量持续增加,平均化肥施用强度已远远超过发达国家制定的225千克/公顷的施肥上限,且化肥施用的粮食增产效应越来越不显著,单纯依靠增施化肥来增加粮食产量的方式越来越行不通；化肥施用结构日渐优化,但仍然不合理,具体表现为化肥投入重氮磷而轻钾,造成化肥利用效率偏低；1990年,我国绝大部分省市的单位播种面积化肥施用强度在225千克/公顷以下,到2008年,几乎所有省份的化肥施用强度均超过这一标准,其中东部沿海发达省市的化肥施用强度更是超过了500千克/公顷的施肥水平。同时,与经济发展的梯度格局一致,中国化肥投入强度在东、中、西部地区呈现出逐渐降低的现象。与化肥施用强度的变化情况一致,中国化肥投入的面源污染呈现出不断加重的趋势。其中,东部发达省市化肥投入的面源污染程度总体上呈现出先上升后下降的现象,而中西部绝大部分省市化肥投入的面源污染程度则处于不断加重阶段,这就需要政府在经济发展和环境保护之间进行权衡。2、经济增长与化肥投入面源污染关系的实证分析结果表明：一方面,经济增长是中国化肥投入面源污染产生和变化的重要决定因素；另一方面,由于中国农户的超小规模经营和消费阶段的局限,以及政府化肥环境政策的不完善,使我国缺乏将化肥过量和不合理施用产生的面源污染效应进行内部化的基础,这使得中国化肥投入的面源污染对宏观经济增长的作用并不明显。3、中国化肥投入的面源污染EKC曲线的模拟结果表明：中国化肥投入面源污染与宏观经济增长之间存在典型的倒U型曲线的关系,也即随着经济的发展,中国化肥投入面源污染成相处先上升后下降的趋势,为了尽早实现EKC曲线的低值超越,需要在提高居民环境需求的同时,加大政府亲环境政策的制定和实施力度与亲环境施肥技术的开发推广力度。在影响中国化肥投入面源污染时空演变的诸多因素中,居民收入水平和环境需求水平的提高,有利于降低农业环境的污染程度；农民非农就业程度的不断提高和农民非农收入的不断增长加重了中国化肥投入的面源污染；城乡二元经济结构和环境管理政策体制,加剧了化肥投入面源污染的程度；近年来蔬菜和瓜果类等经济作物的播种面积大幅度增长,使得单位耕地面积的化肥投入强度快速加大的同时也加重了对环境的污染；复种指数不断增加,是造成化肥投入面源污染压力加剧的重要原因；农业技术进步有利于降低中国化肥投入的面源污染,但基于中国农户的超小规模经营和农业科技研发、推广和应用水平低下的现实,使得农业技术进步环境效应并未得到充分发挥。4、农户化肥投入行为与面源污染问题的分析结果表明：农户对化肥施用环境风险的认知、农户采用测土配方施肥技术、耕地细碎化程度、家庭耕地经营规模、农户耕地是否遭受过自然灾害对农户化肥投入数量决策和化肥投入的面源污染程度具有显著的正向影响。同时,政府支持和环境政策执行力度也是影响化肥投入面源污染的重要原因。虽然农户是否参加过科学施肥技术培训和是否购买过低质化肥变量的作用并不十分显著,但值得注意的是,其影响方向与预期是一致的,农户如果参加过科学施肥技术培训,会促使农户减少化肥的投入数量,进而降低化肥施用的面源污染。农户亲环境化肥施用技术采用行为与面源污染的实证结果表明：户主年龄、家庭耕地经营规模、购肥途径、非农就业状况、是否接受科学施肥技术的培训、有无购买低质化肥、政府支持与环境政策等对农户亲环境施肥技术的采用行为和面源污染效应改变具有显著的影响。根据以上研究结论,本研究提出制定并完善农业集约化经营与化肥投入面源污染控制相协调的环境管理政策,鼓励农户科学施肥、加强对种植农户环境意识的宣传和教育工作,提高农户环境保护意识并进一步推进农户适度规模经营的发展步伐,创新方式和加大力度推广测土配方施肥技术,提高农户亲环境施肥技术的采用率等政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, water eutrophication and groundwater pollutions have spread through major lakes, rivers, coastal water in China with high frequency. At the same time, food safety incidents has intensified, especially the event of the emergence of blue algae in Taihu Lake which was the turning point that attracted widely concern on the agro-ecological environment. Excessive and unreasonable investment of fertilizers is one of the main sources that cause agricultural nonpoint source pollution. For a long time, along with rapid economic and social development, pressure on agricultural intensification continues to increase as well as the number of agricultural chemical fertilizer and the application of intensity. All those above have directly resulted in a more serious situation of the non-point pollution. And this situation may get continue to deteriorate in the future. While environmentalists and policy makers have recognized the negative impact of application of chemical fertilizer on agricultural damage to the environment and sustainable agricultural development, they still have not found effective method to control and manage these. Therefore, we have to master the driving mechanism, guide the farmers to adopt environmental-friendly fertilization technology to reduce levels of farmers’applying fertilizer to optimize the structure of fertilizer inputs, thus improving fertilizer use efficiency, reducing and resolving excessive fertilizer and unreasonable application and ultimately make sustainable development possible.Environmental issues and economic development are closely related. On one hand, economic growth affect environment issues by enlarging economic scales, changing the economic structure, improving the environment-friendly technology, etc. in other words, economic growth is the key factors that affects the change of environmental problems. On the other hand, agriculture is the basic industry of national economy, nonpoint source pollution caused by excessive and unreasonable use of chemical fertilizer can adversely affect the development of agriculture, and finally do harm to the macroeconomic development through amplification effect. Taking external costs of agriculture environmental pollution into consideration, the production function and the consumption function have an effect on the macro-economic growth. So in reality, what’s the relationship between the non-pollution and the economic growth? Does the non-point pollution in China caused by fertilizer input has already brought significant negative effects on macroeconomic? How to give a reasonable explanation to the relationship between these two in reality?Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis indicate that economic growth produce a series of changes in the environment impact by changing the economic scale, economic structure, technological level, the elasticity of he public and government’s environments demand, promoting the government formulating and implementing appropriate environmental policies and eco-system, etc. Researchers hold the opinion that the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality is similar to that of economic development and income distribution, the inverted U shaped relationship. That is with the economic development and environmental pollution levels increased and then decreased showing the inverted U-curve variation. Then does the similar relationship between the Chinese nonpoint pollution caused by fertilizer input and the economic growth exist? If so, which stage is the point source pollution is in? Meanwhile, in order to analyze the existence regional differences of China Environmental Kuznets Curve fertilizer input, this paper will give in-depth analysis about the internal mechanism of the driving factors concerning how the non-point pollution is generated and changed during the procession of economic development. That is to sort out the drive factors of the fertilizer input non-point source pollution in China, and classify these factors working mechanism from the economic scale effect, structural effect, technological effect and regulatory policies effect is of great importance and practical significance to master the relationship with economic growth as well as to find the find policy instruments for pollution control.In order to achieve the environmental Kuznets curve turning point as soon as possible, appropriate policies and systems for guiding and regulating the peasants’producing activities are required to formulated and implemented. That is to explore micro policies that can control and mitigate Chinese fertilizer input non-point agricultural pollution. In essence, there are two aspects that result in the increasing non-point agricultural pollution. One is the over input fertilizers that was used in the agriculture production. The other is resulting in a large number of fertilizer nutrients excess and loss. The other is that farmer’s irrational structure of chemical fertilizer, makes very low fertilizer use efficiency in the agricultural production process. It is the farmers that should to be analyzed to solve the pollution. Guiding and limiting farmers’behavior is the key to reducing the quantity of fertilizers that used in production and optimize the structure of chemical fertilizer. As China’s main agricultural production is based on a number of scattered ultra-small scale farmers are unique, farmers’behavior, or their use of environment-friendly technology may directly determines the effectiveness of pollution control policies. Unless we clarify the relationship between agriculture fertilizer inputs and non-point pollution, while on the other hand limit and optimize farmers’behavior, can we fundamentally reduce the intensity and damage of non-point pollution.Therefore, with the theoretical explanation and empirical validation about the fertilizer input non-point pollution changes and is relationship with the economic growth, this study measure the non-point pollution and clarify the fertilizer inputs variation and character in china, using a list of surveys. Meanwhile, based on the environment-economic theory, this article firstly analyzed the binary relationship between theses two as well as its manifestations in the form theoretically and empirically. Then we text theoretically and empirically the environment Kuznets curve of chemical fertilizer input point source pollution. In order to clarify more intuitive EKC curve of fertilizer input non-point source pollution, this article will also analyze the drivers of spatial and temporal evolution and attempt to explore the main factors that affect farmers to make decisions and use environment friendly technology, with purpose provide a systematic framework on guiding farmers to reduce the use of fertilizer and change structure of fertilization.Based on the above analysis, combing the empirical analysis and normative analysis, the main conclusions of this research are as follows:1,Results from studying China’s current situation and problems of fertilizer input show that:Overall speaking, the total amount of fertilizer application in China continues to increase, the average intensity of fertilizer application has far exceeded the ceiling made by developed countries, namely,225kg/hm2. Simultaneously, the Chinese increase effect of grain yield based on chemical fertilizer is more and more inconspicuous, It is not workable enough as before to increase food production relying solely on increasing fertilizer inputs; Although fertilizer application structure optimizes, but is still unreasonable, concrete manifestation for chemical fertilizer investment diazonium phosphorus, but the light potassium, causes the chemical fertilizer use efficiency to be somewhat low; Looking from regional differences, in 1990, most provinces and cities of chemical fertilizer unit acreage strength is under 225 kg/ha,, however, intensity of chemical fertilizer application in most all provinces had beyond this standard by 2008, especially that in eastern coastal provinces and cities was more than 500 kg/ha. Meanwhile, like gradient pattern of economic development, China’s chemical fertilizer input intensity in the eastern, central and western regions showing a step reduction phenomenon.Results from measuring China’s chemical fertilizer input non-point source pollution show that:There is an increasing trend in China’s chemical fertilizer input non-point source pollution. Among them, non-point source pollution resulting from using chemical fertilizer in developed eastern provinces and cities generally showed the phenomenon of the first increased and then decreased, while that in the majority of central and western provinces and cities has been in the increasing stage, which requires government carries on the balance between the economic development and the environmental protection.2, Results from empirical analysis about relation between economic growth and fertilizer input non-point source pollution show that:on the one hand, economic growth is the key factor influencing produce and changes of China’s chemical fertilizer input non-point source pollution; on the other hand, as a result of the limitation of Chinese peasant household’s ultra-small scale management and consumer phase, as well as the fault of government chemical fertilize environmental policy, our country lacks the foundation to take internal effects of, non-point source pollution caused by he excessive and unreasonable application of fertilizer generated, which makes effect in China’s chemical fertilizer input non-point source pollution on the macro-economic growth insignificant.3, China-point source pollution inputs of fertilizer EKC curve simulation results show that:the chemical fertilizer input point source pollution and economic growth exists between the typical inverted U-curve relationship, that with economic development, the Chinese fertilizer into surface source pollution into increased and then decreased along the trend curve for the early realization of low EKC beyond the need to improve the environmental needs of the residents at the same time, and increase government pro-environmental policy development and implementation of strength and pro-environmental fertilization efforts to promote technology development. This is also the process of economic development, point source pollution of agricultural fertilizer input driver of a theoretical and empirical analysis, research findings show that income levels and increased levels of environmental needs, to improve the agricultural environment can form a strong binding help to reduce pollution in the agricultural environment; In recent years, farmers continue to improve the level of non-agricultural employment and the growing non-agricultural income of farmers increase investment in China’s chemical fertilizer-point source pollution; urban-rural dual economic structure and system of environmental management policies, increased point source inputs of agricultural fertilizer pollution levels; in recent years, such as vegetables and melons substantial increase acreage of cash crops, making the unit of fertilizer input intensity of the cultivated area increasing at the same time rapidly increased pollution of the environment; cropping increasing investment in agricultural fertilizers increased the pressure-point source pollution is one of the important reasons; general, technological advances in agriculture is conducive to reducing China’s chemical fertilizer input point source pollution, but China-based ultra-small scale farmers and agricultural science and technology research and development, low level of promotion and application of the reality, making the environmental effects of technological advances in agriculture have not been fully realized.4, Results from farmers fertilizer inputs and non-point source pollution analysis show that:farmers environmental risk perception on chemical fertilizer, formula fertilization by soil testing, land fragmentation, family land scale, farmers land suffered from natural disasters or not have a significant impact on farmer fertilization decision-making and agricultural chemical inputs into the point source pollution. At the same time, government support and enforcement of environmental policies are important reasons which affect agricultural fertilizer input non-point source pollution. Whether or not the farmers to participate in scientific and technical fertilization training and had bought low-quality fertilizer are insignificant, but these factors should be paid attention to. Because the effect is consistent with the expected direction, if the farmers have participated in the training of scientific fertilization, they will reduce fertilizer inputs, thus reducing fertilizer input non-point source pollution.Empirical results from farmers pro-environmental behavior of chemical fertilizer technology and non-point source pollution show that:the age of household head, family size of arable land management, ways to purchase fertilizer, non-farm employment status, whether to accept the scientific fertilization technology training, whether to buy low-quality fertilizer, the Government support for farmers and environmental policies has a significant impact on the adoption of pro-environmental fertilization and the effect changes in point source pollution.According to the above conclusions, this study puts forward to following suggestion: Our government should develop and improve environmental management policies aimed at coordinating intensive management of agriculture and controlling fertilizer inputs non-point source pollution, and then enhance environmental awareness of farmers planting propaganda and education for encouraging farmers to use scientific fertilization strengthen the environment protection awareness of household to further promote the development of appropriate scale farmers, innovative new approaches and take greater efforts to promote fertilizer by soil testing technology, and improve the rate of household adoption of pro-environmental fertilization.更多还原