【作者】 陈志奎；

【导师】 岑况；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 资源产业经济， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 旅游业的蓬勃发展促进了当地经济的快速增长,生态旅游为旅游业注入了新的活力、打开了新的篇章。舟山群岛地处泛太平洋海域,邻近沪、杭、甬等大中型城市;夏无酷暑,冬无严寒,气候宜人;岛上旅游资源丰富、种类齐全、分布广泛;为生态旅游业的发展提供了无比的优越条件。舟山群岛已正式确立为首个以海洋经济为主题的国家战略层面的新区,而旅游业又是当地经济的重要组成部分;生态旅游是当地旅游业的重中之重、发展的未来与方向。生态旅游资源是一种环境资源,具有不可分割的特性;对其价值的评估,应借助于非市场产品的评估方法。本文应用了条件评价法,来估计消费者的最大支付意愿;在评价中运用了支付卡和二分式问卷调查,采用了线性回归、半对数回归、二元Logistic回归的分析方法。应用了旅行成本法,来估计景区的消费者剩余;考虑到旅游的季节特性,将旅游淡季和旺季单独计算,并求总和。基于环境库兹涅茨曲线,结合存量损害型污染的特征,对区域经济发展给环境施加的影响进行建模分析,建立了污染存量与年生产总值之间的函数关系。针对特定的生态景区,构建指数化的环境分析模型,建立了污染指数、旅游收入、治理成本之间的函数关系;分析并证明了景区容量与治理成本的对应关系、景区供给的转移支付税率、景区容量均衡时不论收费与否其消费者剩余不变。引入了SUW统计量,可将景区客流细分为三部分;构建了SUW分析模型,给出了预测参数估计的计算方法。出于景区资源配置效率的考虑,分给出了主/客观的综合评价参考流程,以及理性预测的方法。本文对采用的评价方法和建立的分析模型,均做了实证分析。普陀山景区的实证分析结果,简述如下:CVM分析,得WTP约为320元。TCM分析,(不考虑拥挤)得每年的总MCS是2.95x109元。景区环境分析,得净化系数为0.055,景区供给的转移税率26.34%。SUW分析,得年平均留宿比例是28.5%。景区的旅游压力指数呈现逐年递增的趋势,景区容量是一个相对的软指标。更多还原

【Abstract】 The thriving development of tourism has contributed to the swift growth of local economy. The ecotourism has injected a flow of fresh vitality into the tourism and opened a new chapter. Zhoushan islands are located in Pan Pacific waters, adjacent to Shanghai City, Hangzhou City, Ningbo City and so on. No cold here in winter, summer without heat, the climate is quite agreeable. Tourism resources in Zhoushan Islands are rich and widespread and cover all kinds. The islands have tremendous advantages to develop ecotourism. Zhoushan islands had been established officially the first new district at national strategic level with the theme of marine economy. Tourism has played an important and significant role in local economic growth. Ecotourism has a top priority and is the tendency in the future, considering how to develop tourism industry.Ecotourism resources are a kind of environmental resources and have a feature of inseparability. Evaluation methods of non-market goods are usually applied to evaluate the value of environmental resources. The author applied CVM to estimate the WTP of visiting customers with payment-card and dichotomous choice questionnaires, combined with linear regression, semi-log regression and binary-logistic regression. The author also applied TCM to estimate the total MCS of a tourism-oriented park and separately computed the MCS in off-season and peak seasons.In order to analyze the impact on local environment due to economic growth, the author built an evaluation model between pollution stock and regional GDP, based on EKC and stock-damage pollution. For a given tourism-oriented eco-park, the author also built an environmental analysis model among the pollution index, tourism revenue and governance cost. The environmental model shows the relationship between eco-park capacity and governance cost and offers the method of how to calculate the transfer payment rate of the park. On capacity equilibrium, the model proves that the MCS is same whether the park is charged or not. The author introduced a method of SUW and built a SUW analysis model. The SUW model can divide the visitors into three parts and offer a method of how to estimate the parameters of rational forecast. Considering the efficiency of resources in the park, the author offered objective and subjective comprehensive evaluation methods for reference and offered a method of how to forecast rationally the basic information of the park in future.The author offered positive analyses for all given evaluation methods and all given analysis models. The result of positive analysis of Putuoshan Park showed in brief that the WTP was about 320RMB based on CVM and that the MCS was about 2.95 billion RMB based to TCM without regard to congestion. The result of environmental positive analysis showed that the coefficient of environmental purification was 0.055 and the transfer payment rate was 26.34%. The positive SUW analysis showed the average of stay overnight rate among visitors was 28.5%. The tourism pressure index of the park has been increasing year by year, so the eco-park capacity is a soft target relatively.更多还原