【作者】 赵璐；

【导师】 郑新奇； 象伟宁；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 土地资源管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 土地可持续利用与土地资源优化配置是当前土地科学和土地资源管理工作面临的重要课题。如何将二者相结合、制定科学合理的土地资源优化利用方案,是土地利用优化配置需要研究和解决的关键问题。本研究围绕土地可持续利用数量结构优化与空间布局优化这一研究目标,开展了以下研究工作。基于可持续性科学、三重底线发展原则、土地可持续利用机理等考虑,基于扩展PSR模型建立了土地可持续利用评价体系框架,从单目标评价、多目标评价、现状评价、动态评价等多角度分析区域土地可持续利用程度,为区域土地可持续时空利用方案的优化和选择提供决策支持。土地利用优化配置主要需要解决土地利用变化的定时、定量、定位问题。本研究主要借助SD模型与CLUE-S的混合模型来解决上述问题,SD模型可以从宏观层面解决定时与定量的问题,CLUE-S模型从微观层面实现对土地利用需求的空间定位。通过设定不同土地利用情景模式,研究区域土地利用的时空变化,并结合前述土地可持续利用评价方法采用情景分析的方法对结果进行方案对比分析,从而保证土地可持续利用的目标与土地利用时空优化目标相辅相成,数量结构约束和空间格局约束共同作用,达到整体优化的目的。最后,本研究以济南市为例开展了实例研究。首先,分别采用不同的空间统计方法和土地可持续利用评价PSR体系框架对实验区1996年—2005年土地利用时空变化特征等以及土地可持续利用程度进行了分析评价;然后,借助混合模型得到济南市2006年—2020年不同情景模式下土地利用时空变化的模拟和预测结果,对其进行情景对比分析和相关评价,分析济南市今后土地利用时空变化的特征及尚且存在的主要问题,为管理规划等提供决策依据,并验证了本研究提出的土地可持续利用时空优化方法体系的可行性。本研究中,土地可持续利用不仅仅是土地利用时空优化的重要目标,也是在土地利用时空优化方案对比的重要依据。同时,对于模型的空间定位结果开展基于土地适宜性和土地利用继承性的分析评价,弥补了模型本身对此两个方面考虑的不足,更有助于土地可持续利用目标的实现。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sustainability and optimal allocation of land resources are the two important issues for the current land resources management. Generally the sustainability of land use is the final objective of optimal land-use allocation, and the optimal allocation is the main way to achieve the sustainable land use. To address the combination of these two issues, this paper mainly focused on the optimization of quantity change and spatial pattern of land use and carried out the following studies.Based on the considerations of sustainability science, mechanism of sustainable land use, this paper analyzed the mechanism of social, economic and environmental factors’response to the change of land use, and developed the framework for sustainability evaluation of land use based on a modified Pressure-State-Response model, which could assist the decision-makers figure out the sustainability from the aspects of single-objective, multi-objective, the status quo, and dynamic developing.The issues of temporal change, quantity problem and the spatial allocation should be addressed during the optimal allocation of land use. The coupled model of system dynamics model and CLUE-S model was applied to figure out the above three issues. Based on the complicated relationships among economy, population and land use, SD model could simulate the land-use change in temporal level in specific scenario which is also the future land-use demand. For the spatial factors which are hard to be expressed by SD model, they could be well described in CLUE-S. Moreover, it is the spatial supply for land use that CLUE-S provides. The balance between land demand and supply links the temporal simulation and spatial allocation as a whole. Then planners or decision-makers could carry out scenario analysis according to the results to choose an optimal land-use plan.Finally, this case study was carried out in Jinan City. First, the study analyzed the dynamics of the temporal and spatial land use change in Jinan during 1996 to 2005, and evaluated the sustainability of local land use based on the framework. Then the simulations of the regional land use change for the period of 2006-2020 was carried out based on the coupled model. Through the contrast and evaluation of the simulating results under different developing scenarios, the main temporal and spatial characteristics of regional land use change and the current points that could be addressed for local land use were figured out.In this study, the sustainability of land use is not only the basic goal of spatio-temporal optimization of land use, but also the main principle to figure out the better optimization scenario. Moreover, the evaluation and analysis of the spatial allocation, which is based on CLUE-S model, based on the suitability and inheritance of land use could make up the insufficient considerations for the model itself, and it could help achieve the goals of sustainable land use.更多还原