开放条件下我国货币政策应对经济周期波动的有效性研究

【作者】 吴金友；

【导师】 连平；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 世界经济， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 经济周期在经济学领域是一个古老的命题,对经济周期问题的研究本身随着宏观经济周期波动而呈现周期性;货币政策是现代经济运行中重要的宏观经济政策之一,其对于经济周期而言,是否产生影响是经济理论界关注的焦点之一。本文首先采用横向比较和纵向比较的分析方法,对国内外有关经济周期波动理论、以及货币政策应对经济周期波动有效性等理论进行分析总结,并将其作为论文进一步研究的起点和基础。紧接着,论文采用不同的滤波分析方法对中国改革开放后至2009年的经济周期运行进行划分,并对划分后的经济周期的波动性、协动性、持久性、非对称性、持续期依赖五个特征进行了详细分析。在对开放条件下的中国经济周期进行一般性的认识之后,论文随即从外部冲击和内部失衡两个角度对中国经济周期产生的原因和传导机制进行了深入分析,其结果显示外部冲击逐步成为开放条件下中国经济周期波动的重要原因,而以消费和投资为主要内容的内部失衡是开放条件下中国经济周期波动的主要原因。与此同时,对开放条件下中国经济周期波动传导机制实证分析结果,也进一步解释了长期以来,宏观政策在应对经济周期波动时,主要采取扩大投资、刺激出口政策措施的主要原因。对开放条件下中国经济周期的深入全面认识,是进一步分析中国货币政策应对经济周期波动有效性的前提和基础。中国真正意义上的货币政策是自1984年中国人民银行专门行使中央银行职能以后才逐步形成的。由于中国货币政策本身处于一个不断发展过程中,所以对中国货币政策框架、以及货币政策应对经济周期波动的历史实践进行归纳和分析是必要的;在此基础上,论文采用协整分析和误差修正模型两种方法,对开放条件下中国货币政策应对经济周期波动进行实证分析,实证分析结果显示,总体而言,中国货币政策在应对经济波动上是有效的。但由于存在某些方面的障碍,如体制方面、技术方面的障碍,也制约了中国货币政策有效性的发挥。因此,论文在中国货币政策有效性实证分析基础上,进一步从外汇管理体制、货币政策传导机制两个方面分析了制约中国货币政策有效性发挥的主要障碍;与此同时,随着中国经济与世界经济一体化的进一步深入发展,论文也从人民币汇率形成机制改革、资产价格波动、人民币国际化、国际金融体系改革等几个方面指出中国货币政策面临的新挑战。最后,为适应开放条件下的新挑战,构建有效的货币政策框架体系,论文从制度层面、市场层面、技术层面以及操作层面提出相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Business cycle is a traditional of economics. The study of business cycle varies with the cycle itself changes. Monetary policy is one of the most important macroeconomic policies for the modern economy. It is one of the economic focuses in the civilized world that whether the monetary policy has an effect on the business cycle or not.Firstly, with analytic techniques of the latitudinal and the longitudinal comparisons, this paper analyses the theories home and abroad concerning business cycle and the efficiency of monetary policy coping with it. Taking the conclusions as another start point and a foundation for further studies, this paper divides sections of business cycle with different filtering analytic in the time frame from reform and opening up till 2009. It also studies the business cycle’s five features including volatility, co-movement, durability, asymmetry and duration dependence in great depth. After a general description of China’s business cycle in an open condition, this paper digs deeply into the causes of the business cycle and the transmission mechanism in the aspects of external shock and internal unbalance. The results demonstrate, in the open environment, the external shock has gradually become a vital cause for China’s business cycle. Meanwhile, the internal unbalance aroused by consumption and investment change is still a major reason for China’s business cycle. In addition, the empirical research on the transmission mechanism of China’s business cycle in an open economy further explains the main reason why the macro-policy mainly expands investment and stimulates export to deal with the business cycles.For further Chinese monetary policy efficiency analysis, fully and thoroughly understanding of China’s business cycle in an open economy is necessary.China’s real monetary policy has just formed since 1984 when People’s Bank of China exclusively exercised the central bank functions. China’s monetary policy itself develops gradually, so it is essential to induce and analyze the framework and the historical practices of the monetary policy coping with business cycle. On the basis of it, this paper conducts an empirical analysis on China’s business cycle in an open condition handling business cycle with two methods of co-integration analysis and error modification model. The analysis illustrates that China’s monetary policy is generally effective dealing with economic fluctuations. There are, however, some drawbacks in China’s monetary policy due to some institutional and technological barriers. Therefore, on the basis of such analysis, this paper further studies the main barriers that restrict the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy from two aspects such as foreign exchange administrative system and the monetary policy transmission mechanism. In the meantime, this paper also discusses several challenges such as reform of RMB foreign exchange rate, asset price fluctuations, RMB internationalization and reform of international financial system aroused by the deep going globalization of China’s economy.Last but not least, this paper raises some appropriate proposals concerning institutional frameworks, market conditions, technological objectives and operational matters in order to meet new challenges in an open economy and construct effective monetary policy system.更多还原