服务贸易与货物贸易互动关系研究

【作者】 卢仁祥；

【导师】 徐明棋；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 西方经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 服务贸易与货物贸易同是世界贸易的组成部分,两者共同构成了世界贸易。服务贸易与货物贸易关系密切:服务贸易起源于货物贸易,货物贸易在先,服务贸易在后;货物贸易的发展能够带动服务贸易的发展,服务贸易反过来又促进货物贸易的开展。由于早期服务贸易总体规模较小,在经济中的作用有限,因此人们往往用货物贸易指代世界贸易,服务贸易并不为人们所关注。但是,随着经济技术的发展和人们生活水平的提高,服务业和服务贸易的发展越来越为人们所重视。自20世纪70年代之后,服务贸易的增长速度超越了货物贸易的增长速度,其在国际贸易中的地位显著上升,对经济发展的拉动作用日益凸显,引起了各国政府和学界对这一领域的广泛关注。尤其自GATT乌拉圭回合谈判达成的服务贸易总协定(GATS)实施和世界贸易组织(WTO)成立后,服务贸易的发展受到了学术界和政策当局的广泛重视。但是,服务贸易的发展不论在理论上还是在实践上都落后于货物贸易。同时,服务贸易在各国间也表现出很大的不平衡性,货物贸易规模庞大的国家同样服务贸易规模也比较大,服务贸易发展在地区上很不平衡。而且,就一国内部来说,服务贸易与货物贸易的发展也存在不平衡的问题:很多服务货物顺差的国家,服务贸易却是逆差;货物贸易逆差的国家,服务贸易却是顺差。如何实现服务贸易与货物贸易的互动与均衡协调发展,对这些国家来说就显得比较重要。中国作为全球第二大货物贸易国,货物贸易发展迅速,具有一定的竞争优势,持续多年货物贸易顺差。相比之下,服务贸易发展却相对滞后,而且总体竞争力不强,多年来都是逆差。随着我国货物贸易的快速发展和持续的顺差,同其他许多贸易伙伴国的贸易摩擦也在加剧,加之近来金融危机的影响使贸易保护主义抬头以及低碳经济时代的来临,使中国的货物贸易发展受到了严峻的考验。如何实现外贸增长方式的转变,优化贸易结构,维持外贸对经济增长的拉动作用,是中国丞需解决解决的问题。这也为中国大力发展服务贸易,提升我国在国际分工中的地位,实现服务贸易与货物贸易的互动协调发展提供了良好的契机。正是基于上述考虑,本文把服务贸易与货物贸易的协调发展问题作为研究的主题。文章通过运用经济学、国际贸易学和计量经济学的相关理论,分析相对比较成熟的货物贸易理论,探讨其在服务贸易领域的适用性和服务贸易自身理论的发展情况,并在此基础上进行比较和综合研究,以深入剖析指导服务贸易与货物贸易协调发展的相关理论和具体机制,最后结合贸易发展的实际情况进行实证检验。文章具体研究的内容分为七章:第一章,引言。本章在简要介绍论文的选题背景和意义的基础上,对国内外关于服务贸易与货物贸易互动协调发展关系的相关研究成果进行总结和归纳,提出文章研究的基本内容和结构设想、拟采取的研究方法以及可能的创新之处。第二章,服务贸易与货物贸易发展的相关理论。本章首先介绍了服务的相关概念、特征和分类,对货物贸易理论发展脉络进行梳理,而后在此基础上结合服务贸易的特殊性分析货物贸易理论在服务贸易领域的适用性以及服务贸易自身理论的发展情况。第三章,服务贸易与货物贸易协调发展的理论分析。本章概括总结了服务贸易与货物贸易协调发展的相关理论,并重点介绍了研究服务贸易与货物贸易协调发展的Deardorff模型和生产区段与服务链理论,而后在此基础分析了服务贸易与货物贸易协调发展的具体机制和社会经济条件,指出货物贸易的发展能够从供给、需求和政策管理方面促进服务贸易的发展,而服务贸易主要通过为货物贸易提供便利化服务、促使交易流程创新、节约交易成本以及为服务于商品生产的全球布局而推动货物贸易的发展。第四章,服务贸易与货物贸易协调发展:一般性量化分析。本章简要介绍全球服务贸易与货物贸易的发展现状,并运用现代计量分析方法的协整分析法和误差修正分析法,基于全球和主要贸易大国的服务贸易和货物贸易出口数据,检验分析了全球和主要贸易大国的服务贸易与货物贸易的长期互动均衡发展情况和短期波动的自我修复机制。检验结果表明全球和部分主要贸易国的服务贸易与货物贸易发展之间存在长期互动的均衡机制,短期偏离长期互动均衡状态后能够进行自我修复,较好地支持了关于服务贸易与货物贸易协调发展的理论研究结论。第五章,服务贸易与货物贸易协调发展:结构性量化分析。本章主要基于货物贸易商品和服务贸易的出口结构数据,运用现代计量分析方法的VAR模型分析法,分析了全球和主要贸易国具体商品贸易与服务贸易以及主要部门服务贸易与货物贸易之间的互动协调发展情况,结果表明全球和部分主要的贸易大国的具体商品贸易与服务贸易以及主要部门服务贸易与货物贸易之间存在互动均衡的发展机制,尤其是工业制成品贸易和服务贸易以及生产性或新兴服务贸易与货物贸易之间的相互促进关系显著,并通过向量误差模型分析法分析了相应的短期波动机制。同时,运用运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解较好地测度了具体商品贸易与服务贸易以及主要部门服务贸易与货物贸易之间的交互影响关系。这些实证研究的结论有力地支撑了关于服务贸易与货物贸易协调发展的理论分析结果。第六章,中国服务贸易与货物贸易的协调发展分析。本章在对中国服务贸易与货物贸易发展现状进行分析的基础上,运用相关的具体商品贸易和主要部门服务贸易的出口数据,通过VAR模型分析法分析了中国具体商品贸易与服务贸易以及主要部门服务贸易与货物贸易的互动发展情况,并对其短期波动机制和交互影响情况进行分析,指出与主要贸易大国相比,中国服务贸易与货物贸易之间互动协调发展的程度有待提高,其领域有待拓展。最后,在上述分析的基础,对中国服务贸易和货物贸易协调发展存在的问题进行剖析,并提出一些对策思考,以期能够转变中国外贸增长方式,提升外贸竞争力,为中国服务贸易与货物贸易协调发展提供些许有价值的政策参考和借鉴。第七章,研究结论和后续研究展望。在前述各章研究分析的基础上,总结全文的主要研究结论和不足之处,并对后续的研究进行展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 World trade consists of trade in services and trade in goods. There are close contacts between trade in services and trade in goods. Trade in services derives from trade in goods and trade in goods arises before Trade in services. Moreover, the development of trade in goods can drive the development of Trade in services and conversely the development of Trade in services can also further the development of trade in goods. Early the scale of Trade in services is very small and its roles in the global business is relatively limited. So people often substitites world trade with trade in goods and ignores the importance of Trade in services. But with the economic and technical development and improving of people’s living standards, people pay more and more importance to the development of sevices industry and trade in services. Since 1970s,The growth rate of trade in services has exceeded the rate of growth of trade in goods, its position in international trade has increased significantly and its role in boosting economic development has become increasingly prominent, which catch the government and academic attention in this area. In particular, since the implementation of GATS (GATS) under the Uruguay Round of GATT negotiations and after the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the development of trade in services has gotten academic and policy attention widely. However, the development of trade in services, whether in theory or in practice, are behind the trade in goods. At the same time, trade in services between countries also showed great imbalance. The countries of Large-scale trade in goods have relatively large scale trade in services, which illustrates the development of trade in services is very uneven in the region. And to a country’s internal, thedevelopment of trade in services and trade in goods is also with the problem of unbalanced. Such as countries with surpluses of goods, they have a deficit in trade in services and trade in services in the nations of trade deficit of goods is surplus. How to realize the coordinated development between trade in goods and trade in services becomes vital to these countries.As the world’s second largest country of trade in goods, China has a rapid development, certain competitive advantage and a surplus in trade in goods for years. In contrast, the development of trade in services in China is more backward.Its overall competitiveness is not strong and balance is deficit for years. With the rapid development and sustained surplus of trade in goods, trade friction between China and many other trading partners is being aggravated, the recent financial crisis makes trade protectionism spread and the era of low-carbon economy is forthcoming, which makes China’s development of Trade in Goods face a severe test. It has being China Cheng problems to be solved that How to change the increasing model of China’s foreign trade, optimize trade structure and maintain the role of foreign trade in economic growth. This also provides China with a good opportunity to develop trade in services , enhance our position in the international division of labor and coordinate the development between trade in services and trade in goods.Based on the above considerations, this paper views the harmonious development between trade in services and trade in goods as a research subject. By the use of economics, theory of international trade and theory of econometrics, this paper analysises relatively more mature theory of trade in goods, Explore its applicability of the field of trade in services and the development of theory of trade in services and expand comparison and comprehensive study on the basis of this in oder to in-depth analysis the relative theory and specific mechanisms of guiding the coordinated development between trade in services and have an empirical study on it according to the actual trade situation. The specific contents of this paper is divided into seven chapters of:Chapter I, Introduction. This chapter briefly describes the research background and significance of the paper, summarizes the relevant research results on based on the coordinated development between trade in services and trade in goods at home and abroad and puts forward the basic content ,structure, research methods and innovations in this paper.Chapter II, the relevant theory of the development of trade in services and goods. This chapter introduces the concept,characteristics and classification of service-related, sort out the development of theory of trade in goods and then analysises the applicability of theory of trade in goods in the fields of trade in services acoording to the special nature of trade in services and its own theoretic development.Chapter III, the theoretic annlysis on the harmonious development between trade in services and trade in goods. this chapter Summarizes the relevant theory of the coordinated development between trade in services and trade in goods , focuses on the Deardorff model and service chain theory related to the coordinated development and analysises the specific mechanisms of their coordinated development on the basis of it. Also, this chapter shows that the development of trade in goods can promote the development of trade in services from the faces of the supply, demand and policy management and the development of trade in services can further the development of trade in goods mainly through the providing trade facilitation services with trade in goods, promoting innovation of transaction process, reducing transaction costs and serving the global layout of commodity production.Chapter IV, the analysis on the harmonious development between trade in services and trade in goods from the total trade amount. This chapter briefly describes the development status of the global trade in goods and trade in services and tests balanced development of long-term interactions and self-repair mechanism of short-term fluctuations between them from the export data of the global and major trading nations by using of modern methods of econometrics, cointegration and error correction analysis . Test results show that balanced development of long-term interactions between them in the global and some of the major trading nations exists and short-term deviation from the equilibrium state of long-term interaction can be self-repaired, which better supports the theoretic findings on t the coordinated development between them .Chapter V, the analysis on the harmonious development between trade in services and trade in goods from the trade structure. This chapter briefly describes the coordinated development status between trade in goods and trade in services of the global and major trading nations from export structure data through the use of VAR model method. Test results show that balanced development of long-term interactions between specific categories of merchandise trade and trade in services or key sectors of trade in services and trade in goods in the global and some of the major trading nations exists,especially between trade in manufactured goods and trade in services or emerging trade in services and trade in goods trade. Test results also show the corresponding mechanism for short-term fluctuations through the use of the vector error correction model. At the same time, this chapter better measures the specific interaction mechanism between Specific categories of merchandise trade and trade in services or Key sectors of trade in services and trade in goods by using of impulse response function and variance decomposition model.These results better support the theoretic findings on t the coordinated development between trade in services and trade in goods .Chapter VI, the analysis on the harmonious development between China’s trade in services and trade in goods. This chapter briefly describes the development status of China’s trade in goods and trade in services , annlysises the coordinated development status between China’s specific categories of merchandise trade and trade in services or key sectors of trade in services and trade in goods from China’s export structure data through the use of VAR model and points out their self-repair mechanism of short-term fluctuations and interaction mechanism. Compared with the major trading powers, this chapter also shows China’s degree of coordinated development between trade in services and rade in goods should be improved and their area of coordinated development should be expanded. Finally, based on these research results, this chapter annlysises the problems of the coordinated development between China’s trade in services and trade in goods and some countermeasures in order to change increasing model of China’s foreign trade, enhance its competitiveness and provide some valuable reference for China’s policy of foreign trade on the harmonious development between trade in goods and trade in services.Chapter VII, conlusions and prospects. based on research and analysis in the previous chapters, this chapter summarizes the Conclusions of the main research findings and inadequacy and points out the future research orientation.更多还原