【作者】 黄启才；

【导师】 刘义圣；

【作者基本信息】 福建师范大学 ， 西方经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 利率对一国经济具有极为重要的影响。现之,市场经济国家纷纷把利率作为宏观经济调控的主要工具,当经济过热,物价持续上升时,便会升息,而当经济衰退和通货紧缩降临时,又开始降息。因此,关于利率变动与操作的理论和实践一直是国内外研究的热点。目前,关于货币政策的操作规范主要有“相机抉择”和“按规则行事”两大类型,其中,凯恩斯的流动性偏好利息理论为各国央行实行“逆经济风向行事”的相机抉择货币政策实践提供了理论基础,但Kydland-Prescott(1977)及Barro-Gordon(1983)的研究表明,相机抉择型的货币政策具有较多不足,容易产生“时间不一致性”和通货膨胀偏差。20世纪90年代后,西方学者和政策制定者开始逐步放弃相机抉择的货币政策调控思想,转而主张实施规则性货币政策。在此背景下,利率规则于是成为一些国家央行货币政策操作的主要原则,并在实践中日益被各国央行所采用。鉴于此,本文以利率变动及其操作规则为主题,分析其理论基础,考察其具体实践,通过对我国利率变动、平滑操作特征、央行目标偏好以及宏观经济结构等进行深入分析检验基础上,证明了我国利率操作的最优目标模式应该是采取非线性利率规则,并以通货膨胀率作为政策开关变量,运用结构转换回归模型,构建了一个符合我国国情的包含利率平滑、货币供给、资产价格和汇率因素的非线性利率规则,同时对该规则在我国应用中的掣肘因素进行了分析,末后为我国利率政策的有效实施有针对性地提出了自己的一得之见。更多还原

【Abstract】 Interest rate has extremely important implications on a country’s economy. Currently, the market economy countries apply interest rate as the main tool of macroeconomic regulation and control. When the economy is overheating, prices continue to rise, interest rate will rise. When the recession and the deflation come, it will begin to decline. Therefore, the theory and practice of interest rate change and its operational rule has been the research focus both at home and abroad.At present, the operating specifications of monetary policy have the two types of "discretionary" and "by the rules". Although Keynes’s liquidity preference theory provides the discretionary monetary policy practice——i.e. " act against the economic winds"—by central banks a theoretical foundation, the study by Kydland-Prescott (1977) and Barro-Gordon (1983) shows that the discretionary monetary policy easily leads to "time inconsistency" and the inflation bias. After 90 years of the 20th century, Western scholars and policy makers began to gradually give up the discretionary monetary policy thinking, instead advocating the implementation of monetary policy rules. In this context, interest rate rule thus becomes the main operational principle of central banks’ monetary policy in some countries and is increasingly being adopted in practice.View of these, the paper chooses interest rate change and operating rules as the theme of its research. Based on the depth analysis and tests of Chinese interest rate change, central bank’s smooth operating characteristics and target preferences and Chinese macroeconomic structure, this paper proves that the goal of China’s interest rate operational mode should be non-linear interest rate rules, which uses the rate of inflation as a policy switch variable in a structural change regression model and contains such factors as interest rate smoothing, money supply, asset prices and exchange rates. While there are some constraints factors in the application of the rule, this paper proposes some corresponding measures for the effective implementation of the rule at last.更多还原