【作者】 李恩临；

【导师】 孙东生；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 对于任何航运企业来说,船舶是其生存和发展的根基,在某种程度上,航运企业的规模实际上就是船队的规模。作为航运企业,船舶投资是其不可避免的经济行为,近年来,随着二手船交易量的逐步增大,二手船交易在船舶交易中所占比重逐步增加,二手船的购买决策逐渐成为众多航运企业所面临的主要问题之一。然而,航运企业是选择订购新船还是购买二手船,受很多因素影响,甄别这些因素成为解决购船决策问题的首要任务。另外,价格作为影响二手船购船决策的重要因素之一始终处于波动之中,通过研究我们发现,这一波动极具规律性。准确预测未来价格波动趋势,并将预测结果用于二手船购船决策,将大幅度提高航运企业决策的科学性和可操作性。本文首先系统地分析了二手船购船决策影响因素。从船舶自身因素、航运企业内在因素、外在市场因素和中介方因素四个方面分析了影响二手船价格的24个因素,并利用层次分析法构建模型对各因素的重要程度进行了分析,最终甄别出影响购船决策的关键因素。随后,全面地分析了二手船价格波动特征及原因。收集了超过三十年的二手船价格数据,对价格波动的波幅、波频、周期、梯度进行详细分析,归纳出主要波动特征。从二手船价格自身周期性波动与突发事件影响两个方面分析波动原因,对历史波动数据做出解释,对价格波动的特征和成因进行了系统的梳理和分析,并构建模型对未来二手船价格走势做出了预测。最后,构建了基于价格波动的二手船购船决策模型,并进行了实证。基于二手船购船决策结果对相关企业提出了保障措施与建议,其中包括了购买二手船的基本要求、购买二手船的时机选择等内容,为相关企业的购船决策提供了有效参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 For any shipping enterprise, ship is its foundation of survival and development. We can even regard the fleet scale as enterprise scale. As a shipping company, ship investment is one of its inevitable economic behaviors. In recent years, with the second-hand ship trading volume gradually increased, trading second-hand vessels gradually increase the proportion in ship trading, second-hand ship purchase decision has become one of the very important problems faced by many shipping companies. However, it is affected by many factors for shipping companies to choose of ordering new ships, or choose to buy second-hand ships, screening of these factors becomes the top priority task of solving ship acquisition decision-making problem. In addition, second-hand ship prices as one of the most important impacting factor in purchase decision-making is always fluctuating, by studying we found that this fluctuation is very regular. Accurately predict the future price fluctuation, and use the predicted results for the second-hand ship purchasing decision-making will greatly improve scientific and operational of the decision-making for shipping companies.Second-hand ship purchasing decision-making factors are systematically analyzed,24 factors are found divided into four categories, then the key factor is identified through the decision-making model based on AHP.The characteristics and causes of second-hand vessels price volatility are comprehensively analyzed. More than three decades of second-hand ship price data are collected. A detailed analysis of the volatility, wave frequency, period, gradient of price fluctuations has been done to summarize the main fluctuating characters. The characteristics and causes of price fluctuations are systematically organized and analyzed, and build predicting model to forecast second-hand ship prices.Second-hand ship purchasing decision-making model is constructed based on price fluctuations, and an empirical is conducted. Associated shipping companies safeguard measures and recommendations are proposed based on the results of second-hand ship purchasing decision, which include the basic requirements to purchase second-hand ship, the timing of buying second-hand ship etc.更多还原