【作者】 赵毓婷；

【导师】 徐建中；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 船舶工业是综合工业之首,对一国的经济、技术、管理等方面的发展有着重要的战略作用和意义,可以体现国家的综合国力。我国造船业发展势头强劲,在国际市场上占有重要地位,在国内也是影响社会经济发展的关键产业之一,因此,造船市场的特征、市场走向以及我国造船行业、企业可能面临的发展问题和潜在风险,都是我国政府及造船业关注的焦点。造船订单是政府和船舶工业研究人员重点分析和参考的指标,长期以来我国造船行业及企业就选取新接订单、手持订单、完工量作为最主要的参考标准,通过对我国造船订单的波动变化情况来分析造船市场的变化规律以及发展趋势,还通过其波动情况来衡量行业企业的业务水平和实力,为制定经营策略以及风险的管理提供依据。为此,本文以研究我国造船订单波动为基本点,对其波动的特征、趋势,以及波动可能带来的风险进行分析,并提出了我国造船订单波动及其风险管理的对策。1.论文对造船订单波动进行识别研究。借鉴物理学中的“波”理论测度我国造船订单波动状态,通过对“波”的理解和波理论的分析,确定衡量造船订单随时间变化属于波动变化的标准是波形态的存在以及波动能量传递效应存在的双维度分析、测度。论文对以修正总吨为单位的我国造船订单的历史数据绘制波动图表,通过对照波形态的标准以及对波动能量传递的检验进行了度量验证。2.论文对我国造船订单波动的特征、发展趋势以及风险进行了分析和度量。对于波动特征分析,对我国造船订单波动的基本特征从波峰、波谷、波幅、周期、波频等方面进行了刻画；同时,运用灰色关联分析方法对我国造船订单波动的结构特征进行了定量刻画,得出了影响我国造船订单波动的关键船型。对于波动发展趋势,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测了我国造船订单波动的未来趋势,并在对比波动特征的基础上总结出未来4-5年波动的趋势特征。在清晰了解了订单波动趋势特征的基础上,从订单波动引发的风险可能性以及风险发生后果两方面,对我国造船订单波动趋势发展中面临的潜在风险进行了分析。3.论文对造船订单波动产生的风险进行评估。采用调查问卷法,从影响波动风险可能发生的因素及风险的后果对我国造船订单波动风险的影响进行了专家咨询后,运用集对分析方法从风险发生可能性和风险后果两方面对其波动风险发生程度进行了评估。4.论文最后从强化我国造船订单波动风险管理出发,提出切实可行的风险规避措施。为了保证措施的切实可行,从影响波动风险程度高的关键因素和我国造船企业能掌控的因素角度,提出有针对性的规避措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Shipbuilding industry is one of the first important comprehensive industries. It is not only has an important role in the development of a country’s economic, technical and management, it also can reflect the country’s comprehensive national strength. China’s shipbuilding industry develops very fast; it occupies an important position in the international market and impacts socio-economic development in domestic country. Therefore, shipbuilding market characteristics, market trends, as well as China’s shipbuilding industry enterprises may face in development issues and potential risks, all are within our government and industry focus.In response to the above concerns, the shipbuilding-orders indicator is the key indicator which government and researchers analyze and see as a reference. As we all know, China’s shipbuilding enterprises to select indicators of new orders, orders and deliveries as reference standards. Through these reference indicators’fluctuation situation, China’s shipbuilding market of development trend can be reflected, moreover, enterprise business situation and strength level also can be measured, that is in order to develop business strategies and implement risk management. So this article is to study China Shipbuilding-orders fluctuation as basic point, analyze the existence fluctuation of the characteristics, trends, and related fluctuation risks. At the same time, made a guiding framework for the research:1. First, to analysis and recognize about shipbuilding-orders fluctuation. Drawing physicists Wave Theory, determine measure standards of fluctuation are wave form existence and the energy transfer effect of fluctuation. Through China Shipbuilding-orders historical data of CGT unit to draw wave chart, and then compare with wave form standard to recognize the fluctuation and analyze the energy transfer effect of fluctuation by Granger.2. Second, to analysis and measure fluctuation of China Shipbuilding-orders, including the characteristic pattern, trend and related fluctuation risks. For characteristic pattern, to analysis general characteristics of China Shipbuilding-orders in wave crest and trough, amplitude, cycle and wave frequency; to measure marketing structure by using grey relational method and find what order is the key order influent fluctuation of China Shipbuilding-orders. For fluctuation trend, using GM (1,1) model to predict the future trend of Chinese shipbuilding-orders and comparing characteristic pattern to know its characteristic in future. Finally, in a clear understanding of Chinese shipbuilding-orders of future characteristic pattern, from both happening probability of related fluctuation risks and occurrence of related fluctuation risks to analysis potential risks related to fluctuation.3. Third, to assecc the level of China Shipbuilding-orders fluctuation occurrence risk.Using questionnaire method to determine the impact from both the risk factors and risk occurrence. After that, by using the set pair analysis method to give the exactly answer about the degree of the China Shipbuilding-orders fluctuation occurrence risk.4. Finally, to manage the fluctuation risk problem. Aiming at China shipbuilding-orders fluctuation risk, this paper promotes the feasible risk aversion. In the promotion of the risk management measures, in order to guarantee measures proposed feasibly, this paper considers the factors of the fluctuation risk for once more, and the paper points out well-founded avoidances from the key factors which influence the fluctuation risk and the factors which China Shipbuilding firm can control.更多还原