【作者】 李钊；

【导师】 赵金楼；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 海洋工程装备是用于海洋油气资源开发的大型工程装备和辅助性装备。目前,我国海洋工程装备行业的现状是：发展潜力巨大,市场前景良好,但项目管理技术较为落后,尤其是在进度管理方面,缺少较为系统的进度监控与预警模式的理论研究与软件支持。基于此,本文探讨和研究了海洋工程装备项目进度监控的MWC模式,从监控、预警、控制等三个环节阐述了海洋工程装备项目进度监控的理论模型与具体应用,并初步设计项目进度预警DSS,以满足项目进度管理的信息化需求。具体研究内容如下：(1)阐述了海洋工程装备项目进度计划及其与进度监控的关系。鉴于海洋工程装备项目的特殊性,以及进度计划对于进度监控的参照作用,阐述了海洋工程装备项目的概念、建造模式、建造工艺流程,总结了海洋工程装备项目的总建造计划体系,并对进度计划的编制原则与具体流程等进行了研究和阐述,最后分析了进度计划与进度监控的关系,为后文研究进度监控与预警问题打下了知识准备与铺垫。(2)研究了海洋工程装备项目进度监控模式及总体框架。提出了海洋工程装备项目的MWC监控模式,并研究和探讨了监控模式的数学模型与总体框架；在总体框架中,针对Monitor环节,提出了基于集合“Δ”的进度监测数学模型；针对Early-Warning环节,研究了进度预警模型；针对Control环节,研究了基于PDCA循环的进度动态控制模型。这些监控模式与模型起着总领全文的作用。(3)研究了基于SWBS模型的海洋工程装备项目进度监测。在WBS基础上,提出了进度工作分解结构(SWBS)的概念模型；构建了基于SWBS的海洋工程装备项目进度监测体系；通过对进度值的计算与偏差分析,实现对海洋工程装备项目进度的监测。(4)研究了基于KPI的海洋工程装备项目进度预警。研究了海洋工程装备项目的KPI体系及其预警原理；阐述了海洋工程装备项目的KPI的数学公式与数值统计过程；建立了海洋工程装备项目进度预警影响因素指标体系,并采用AHP法对各影响因素的重要性进行了评估。(5)研究了海洋工程装备项目进度的动态控制。首先,阐述了项目进度动态控制的五项原理；其次,通过对横道图、S形曲线、香蕉形曲线与前锋线法的研究,阐述了如何对海洋工程装备项目进度情况进行测量与比较；接着,针对实际进度与计划进度出现偏差的情况,从产生原因和对总工期与后续工作的影响这两个方面进行分析与研究；最后,采取纠正措施,调整进度计划,以实现对海洋工程装备项目进度的动态控制。(6)初步设计了海洋工程装备项目进度预警DSS。进度预警决策支持系统(DSS)是海洋工程装备项目实现进度监控与预警管理的软件系统。首先对预警DSS进行了需求分析；从管理架构和技术架构两个方面对预警DSS进行了总体设计；设计了进度预警DSS的系统原型,并以实例介绍了系统原型的运行效果。(7)研究了海洋工程装备项目进度预警DSS的知识管理。知识管理是进度预警DSS的重要内容。分析了海洋工程装备项目进度预警DSS进行知识管理存在的障碍；从组织结构、企业文化、项目管理、技术实现等四个层次建立了海洋工程装备项目的OCPT知识管理模式；采用模糊综合评价方法,对预警DSS的知识管理能力进行了评价研究。通过对海洋工程装备项目进度监控模式与预警DSS研究,不仅提出了进度监控的MWC模式与诸多理论模型；而且更重要的是,将监控过程分为进度监测、进度预警与进度控制等环环相扣的三个阶段,通过对进度值与KPI值的偏差监测、异常预警与动态控制,保障项目进度的顺利实施；同时,分析与研究了海洋工程装备项目进度预警DSS的总体设计及知识管理,为项目进度监控信息化和智能化提供了指导与参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Offshore equipments are large engineering equipments and auxiliary equipments for offshore oil and gas resources development. At present, the status of offshore equipment industry of China is:development potential and market prospects are good, but project management level is lagging behind, especially in project schedule management, schedule monitoring and early-warning mode is lack of more systematic theoretical research and software support. Based on this, the MWC mode of offshore equipment project schedule monitoring and control is explored and studied here, describing its theoretical model and specific application from three aspects of monitoring, early-warning and control. The DSS of project schedule early-warning is designed to meet needs of project schedule management information. Specific contents are as follows:The content of offshore equipment project and its planning is described. Given the special nature of offshore equipment projects, and the reference of planning for progress monitoring and control, the concepts、construction models and construction process of offshore equipment projects is described. The total project construction planning system is summarized, how to plan is researched, and the relations between of schedule and progress monitoring are studied. Those supply knowledge preparation for following study of progress monitoring and early-warning.The mode and its architecture of offshore equipment project progress monitoring and control is studied. The MWC mode of progress monitoring and control is explored and studied. In the architecture, for the Monitor part, progress monitoring model is proposed based on the collection" A"; for the Early-Warning part, the progress early-warning model is studied; for the Control part, the progress dynamic control model based on PDCA cycle is researched. Progress monitoring mode with its model plays a full role of Consulate General.Offshore equipment project progress monitoring is studied based on SWBS model. Based on the WBS, the conceptual model of schedule work breakdown structure (SWBS) is proposed. Offshore equipment project progress monitoring system is constructed based on SWBS. Through the calculation and deviation analysis of progress value, the monitoring of project progress is achieved.Offshore equipment project progress early-warning is studied based on KPI. The KPI System and its early-warning principle is described; the KPI mathematical formulas and numerical statistical process is explained; the factor indicator system of offshore equipment project KPI early-warning is established, and the importance of factors is evaluated, using AHP method.The project progress dynamic control of offshore equipment project is studied. Firstly, the five principles of project progress dynamic control are overviewed; secondly, through the Gantt chart, S-shaped curve, banana-shaped curve and the front line method, this paper describes how to measure and compare the progress status of offshore equipment project; then, according to the deviation of the actual and planned progress, both causes and influences upon total duration and follow-ups are analyzed; finally, corrective measures are taken and schedules are adjusted to achieve the subjective of project progress dynamic control.The DSS of offshore equipment project progress early-warning is designed. The project progress early-warning decision support system (DSS) is software for offshore equipment project progress monitoring and early-warning. The needs of DSS are analyzed; both management structure and technical architecture are overall designed; the prototype of DSS is designed and developed, and operating results of prototype is also introduced.The DSS knowledge management of offshore equipment project progress early-warning is studied. Knowledge management is an important part of progress early-warning DSS. According to the barrier analysis, OCPT mode of knowledge management in progress early-warning DSS is studied from four levels of the organizational structure, corporate culture, project management, technology; the knowledge management capacity of DSS is evaluated, using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Through study of progress monitoring mode and early-warning DSS of offshore equipment projects, not only MWC monitoring mode and other theoretical models is proposed, but also the process of progress monitoring and control is divided into three stages of monitoring, early-warning and control, where the deviation and exception of progress values and KPI values is monitored, early-warned and dynamic controlled. Besides, the DSS overall design and its knowledge management are studied, providing guidance and reference for the information and Intelligent of project progress monitoring and control.更多还原