不确定环境下的高速公路PPP项目定价问题研究

【作者】 姚鹏程；

【导师】 王松江；

【作者基本信息】 昆明理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 基于政府和私人部门合作的PPP (Public-Private-Partnership)模式的实质是通过价格调节机制增加公共产品的有效供给,从而改进整个社会的福利,定价问题是高速公路PPP项目决策的关键问题。在当前PPP项目实践中不乏存在因定价不当而引起政府、私人部门和公众冲突,对项目产生不利影响的实例,同时理论上也缺乏一种有效适应高速公路PPP项目特点自身的定价理论,如何合理确定高速公路PPP项目收费水平,实现政府、私人部门和用户等利益相关者的利益均衡,对于保证高速公路PPP项目成功运作具有重要意义。论文以不确定环境下的高速公路PPP项目定价问题为研究对象,以实现政府、私人部门和用户等不同利益相关者的不同定价目标均衡为研究目标,提出两个需要解决的关键问题,包括：如何结合高速公路PPP项目自身特点选择合理的定价理论；如何在不确定环境下研究高速公路PPP项目定价。论文对高速公路PPP项目特点、公路定价理论及不确定环境下高速公路PPP项目定价研究等三个方面文献进行归纳总结,指出目前公路定价理论已取得了显著的成果,但还不足以解决高速公路PPP项目的定价问题,主要局限性在于：当前的定价理论往往针对一般收费高速公路,缺乏一种有效适应高速公路PPP项目自身特点的定价理论；缺乏不确定性环境下的定价研究。首先,论文从PPP项目决策特点角度,分析了高速公路PPP项目区别于一般收费高速公路的重要特征,并依此提出了高速公路PPP项目自身特点对定价理论的差异化要求,即：①定价需考虑用户目标,关注政府、私人部门和用户等不同利益相关者的多目标均衡问题；②定价需反映主从递阶决策结构特征。本文引入Stackleberg决策理论方法,建立了双层目标规划定价模型,指出Stackleberg决策理论可作为公路次佳定价理论的补充和完善,是一种与高速公路PPP项目自身特点相适应的定价理论。其次,论文运用模糊规划理论,解决不确定环境下高速公路PPP项目的定价问题。以OD间的潜在交通需求量dw为模糊变量,建立了三类不确定环境下的高速公路PPP项目双层目标规划定价模型,包括：模糊期望值双层目标规划定价模型、模糊机会约束双层目标规划定价模型和模糊相关机会双层目标规划定价模型。再次,论文结合政府和私人部门目标均衡问题,指出政府和私人部门之间的博弈模型存在纯策略Nash均衡,并结合不同定价模型,明确给出政府和私人部门间Nash均衡的定义；同时对于高速公路PPP项目定价决策的主从递阶结构特征,指出政府、私人部门和道路用户间的目标均衡可以用子博弈精炼Nash均衡定义,并结合不同定价模型,明确给出Stackleberg-Nash均衡的定义。然后,设计智能算法解决高速公路PPP项目模糊双层目标定价模型的四个主要问题：不确定函数求值；Nash均衡求解；下层目标的求解；Stackelberg-Nash均衡求解。最后,结合云南省目前已批准实施的《滇中城市群规划》,以包括昆明市、曲靖市、玉溪市、楚雄市等四个滇中核心城市的交通网络设计问题为案例,验证模型的代表性、适应性,并检验智能算法的代表性、信度和效度。更多还原

【Abstract】 The essence of Public-Private-Partnership (called "PPP" for short) model based on cooperation between the government and the private sector is to increase effective public goods supply through the price adjustment mechanism, and therefore to improve the whole social welfare.Pricing is key to highway PPP project decision.There is no lack of examples existed in the current project practice, which made conflicts among government,private sector and public,and produced adverse effects to the project because of improper pricing.In theory, there is not yet an effective pricing theory corresponded with highway PPP project characteristics. How to reasonably determine the highway PPP project pricing level and achieve benefit equilibrium among government, private sector and user etc project stakeholders, has important meaning to guarantee highway PPP project successful operation.This dissertation takes highway PPP project pricing problem under uncertain environments as research object,and takes benefit equilibrium among government, private sector and user etc project stakeholders as research target, puts forward two key problems to be solved, including:choose reasonable pricing theory combined with highway PPP project characteristics;research highway PPP project pricing problem under uncertainty environments.This dissertation summaries three aspects of literature,including:highway PPP project characteristics,road pricing theories and influence of uncertainty on highway PPP project pricing.The dissertation points out that the road pricing theory has achieved remarkable results but not enough to solve highway PPP project pricing issues.Major limitation lies in that the current pricing theory usually aims at general highway project, lack of analysis the influence of highway PPP project characteristics on pricing and influence of uncertainty on highway PPP project pr(?)cing.Firstly,this dissertation deeply analyzes the characteristics of highway PPP project, and points out:it not only has general highway project characteristics, still has other following important features:pricing decision problem of highway PPP project with concession cantract at its heart,is a multiobjective optimization problem involved multiple stakeholders including government,private sector and users,should consider not only influence of targets of government and private sector,and also influence of project users’target.; highway PPP project decision-making process has leader-follower hierarchical structure. The dissertation introduces stackleberg decision theory and points out it can be served as supplement and completement for second-best pricing theory, a kind of pricing theory corresponded with highway PPP project characteristics Achieving stackleberg decision-making goals has a variety of models,the most fundamental and applied mostly model is bilevel programming model, the dissertation defines highway PPP project pricing problem as a bilevel programming model,meanwhile introduces fuzzy programming theory to simulate uncertainties of pricing problem. The dissertation puts forward bilevel programming pricing model under uncertainty is a kind of pricing method accord with highway PPP project characteristics.Secondly, this dissertation uses fuzzy programming theory to solve highway PPP project pricing problem under uncertain environments, and taking OD potential traffic demand dw for fuzzy variable, establishes three types of bilevel programming pricing models under uncertainty,including:fuzzy expected value bilevel programming model,fuzzy chance-constrained bilevel programming model and fuzzy dependent-chance bilevel programming model.Thirdly, this dissertation, combined with the government and private sector objective equilibrium problem, points out that game between government and private sector has a Nash equilibria in pure strategy.The dissertation provides concept of Nash equilibrium between government and private sector combined with different pricing model.For leader-follower hierarchical structural characteristic of highway PPP project pricing decisions,the dissertation points out that different player’s objective equilibrium can use sub-game refined Nash equilibra definition,and provides concept of Stackleberg-Nash equilibrium combined with different pricing model.And then, the dissertation designes a intelligent algorithm to solve four main problems of fuzzy bilevel programming pricing models,including:evaluation of uncertain functions; evaluation of Nash equilibrium; evaluation of lower level objective evaluation of Stackleberg-Nash equilibrium.Lastly, combined with the approved "Urban Agglomeration Planning in the Central Yunnan Province", this dissertation takes network design problem including Kunming,Yuxi,Qujing,Chuxiong etc core cities in the central Yunnan Province as a case study, verifies the adaptability of the model, and inspects representativeness, reliability and validity of intelligent algorithm.更多还原