【作者】 莫纯政；

【导师】 赵磊；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 政治经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 2000年互联网泡沫破灭之后,美联储实施宽松货币政策,次级抵押贷款市场过度发展。后来开始加息,房价从2006年6月起连续下跌。2007年8月美国贝尔斯登对冲基金停止赎回,次贷危机开始爆发。2008年2月,英国北岩银行被国有化,标志着次贷危机传递至欧洲。2008年3月,贝尔斯登被’摩根大通收购。2008年9月,美国政府接管房地美与房利美,意味着美国金融市场爆发系统性危机。随后雷曼兄弟申请破产保护,美林被美洲银行收购,高盛与摩根士丹利转为银行控股公司,至此华尔街五大投行已经集体消失。此外,美国最大的保险公司美国国际集团(AIG)被美联储注资实施国有化。同时,美国、日本、欧元区等世界主要发达经济体在2008年下半年集体陷入衰退,发展中国家经济增长减速,世界经济整体低迷。危机影响下,欧洲还引发了以希腊、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、爱尔兰为代表的主权债务危机。源于美国的危机向世界蔓延,危机由国别危机演变为国际金融危机。当前国际金融危机是自20世纪30年代资本主义大萧条以来最严重的一次国际性危机。中国金融业遭受巨额投资损失,对出口冲击很大,巨额美元外汇储备资产面临极大的汇率风险。当前我国经济发展可谓内忧外患,在此背景下,有必要深入研究国际金融危机的根源,思考和探寻某些问题的答案：第一,当前危机如何定性,和以往危机比较有什么不同；第二,当前危机是如何发生、发展的,其最根本的原因是什么；第三,当前危机对世界造成了多大影响,中国受到了哪些冲击,中国应当采取怎样的办法应对危机。本文围绕以上问题展开了相关的考察和研究,一共分为五章进行论述：第1章为导论,首先简明扼要地描述国际金融危机的基本过程,介绍本文的基本框架结构,将以辩证唯物主义和历史唯物主义为基本方法,对金融危机进行考察研究。第2章为文献综述,总结和归纳国内外学者对当前国际金融危机根源的看法,并且进行分类和初步评析。研究结果可以分为两大类：外生论主要把危机根源归咎于“缺乏监管”、“低估风险”、“透支消费”、“新自由主义”等等；内生论主要把危机根源归咎于“人性贪婪”、“资本主义制度”、“资本主义基本矛盾”等等。以上观点有些是相对片面甚至是错误的,把单方面的原因、阶段性的问题、外部性的影响因素当作危机的根源。只有从马克思主义的角度出发,才能发现危机最深刻的根源。第3章以马克思主义危机理论和列宁帝国主义理论为基础,对当前国际金融危机的根源进行全面的考察和研究。1、首先介绍马克思的经济危机理论、金融危机理论以及列宁帝国主义理论。归纳马克思经典著作中金融危机发生的可能性条件、现实性条件,以及虚拟资本和金融危机的关系等；帝国主义理论主要将用于说明资本主义已经发展的新的垄断阶段,当前金融危机的爆发说明当代资本主义的寄生性和腐朽更加深化了。2、资本主义危机随着时代变迁和经济形态变化已经发生了转型。世界经济中服务业的比重上升,金融业成为资本主义国家利润的最主要来源,金融业占据主导地位。虽然资本主义危机不断发生,其实质还是资本主义生产相对过剩的危机,但是危机形式由古典周期性产业危机向现代周期性金融危机转型了,并且尤其以虚拟经济的极度膨胀为重要特征。3、信用膨胀和全球化是资本主义金融危机的催化剂。信用膨胀使资本主义的实体经济逐渐“空心化”,经济金融化、金融证券化、金融全球化趋势都在加速,这也使当代资本主义的矛盾不断地累积和深化。第4章通过对资本主义危机历史的回顾,并与当前国际金融危机进行比较,从而总结出当前危机的四个方面的特征：(1)生产过剩和“需求过度”并存；(2)虚拟经济与实体经济严重失衡；(3)危机对世界各国造成更加广泛的冲击；(4)充分体现了以美国为首的发达国家金融霸权的腐朽性。进一步把握这些特征,将会对各国应对危机采取的政策措施有参考意义。第5章主要探讨面对危机中国应当如何应对。当前国际金融危机对现实经济和理论界都造成冲击。对中国经济而言,解决问题的关键在于：(1)转变经济发展方式,继续推进扩大内需战略；(2)对内深化金融体系改革,对外积极探索人民币国际化、参与国际金融体系改革。另一方面,从批判当今资本主义依仗的经济理论、金融货币政策、复杂数理模型出发,提出要坚持马克思主义、科学对待马克思主义,继续坚定不移地走中国特色社会主义道路,探索可持续的包容性发展模式。本文在其他学者研究成果的基础上,力求在以下几个方面有所创新：第一,结合了马克思主义危机理论和列宁帝国主义理论,透过现象发现本质,既看到经济运行层面的具体原因,更看到危机背后最根本的矛盾。另外,运用列宁帝国主义理论,深刻认识到资本主义已经发展到国际金融垄断资本主义阶段。当前危机的条件和形式变了,但本质上并没有改变,而且更具寄生性和腐朽。第二,进一步总结资本主义“古典危机”与“现代危机”的联系和区别。资本主义历史上发生了多次危机,最突出的经济现象就是商品过剩、消费不足,这属于“古典危机”；但是当前危机突出的表现为“寅吃卯粮”、“需求过度”。所以,资本主义危机已经发生了转型,因而在理解和应对危机时,应该根据历史条件的变化情况作出新的政策调整,找到解决“现代危机”的良方。第三,比较完整地阐释了虚拟经济与当前危机的关系。当前危机的发展脉络为：实体经济问题深化造成利润率下降,资本增值途径转向虚拟经济和透支消费模式,随后违约率提高和虚拟经济泡沫破裂,金融系统爆发危机,继而扩散至全球。发达国家金融业已是主导产业,虚拟经济规模和膨胀速度历史空前,资本主义危机的催化剂和爆破点都集中于金融领域。第四,比较全面地考察了当前国际金融危机的传导机制。从纵向角度,链接实体经济问题、次贷危机、国际金融危机、欧洲主权债务危机的传导过程；从横向角度,考察了危机通过国际资本市场、国际贸易扩散到世界各国。同时,其他国家会逆向对发达国家施加反作用。本文认为当前危机是国际性的,因此,世界要走出危机也一定要充分考虑世界各国的利益诉求。中国既要积极参与国际合作,又要重点防范国际风险；既要继续发挥好国际市场的积极作用,更要解决本国国内问题。本文的不足之处有以下几方面：1、尚未设计出良好的数理模型对相关问题进行实证检验,涉及到金融证券方面比较艰深的理论模型、操作手段等等,理解不够透彻,运用过程中难免有不妥之处。2、马克思主义博大精深,本文对相关范畴、理论的理解不够,驾驭起来比较困难,用来考察当前危机,必定存在偏颇和不足。另外,掌握的文献资料难以实现全面覆盖,这在一定程度上影响了研究和判断的准确性和完整性。3、当前国际金融危机还在发展变化中,各种政策效果尚待观察,危机影响的深度和广度无法准确预测。因此,本文对于中国应对危机的政策建议并未形成全面、系统的应对方案,限制了其对中国现实经济的指导作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The current international financial crisis was the most serious international crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The financial investment of China suffered huge losses, exports decreased, and large assets of foreign exchange reserved, U.S. dollar, faced enormous risks. China’s economic development has been difficult. Against this background, it was necessary to study, in depth, the root causes of the global financial crisis, to think about some of the questions:First, how to determine the nature of the current crisis, and the current crisis has undergone important changes or not. The second, what factors have led to crisis, and how about development of the crisis. Third, the current crisis caused much impact on the world, what approach should be adopted in China deal with the crisis.This paper focuses on issues related to these questions above, and these questions were study and discuse in five chapters:Chapter 1 is an introduction. It descripts the basic process of the international financial crisis in brief, describes the basic framework of this papers, studys on the crisis of dialectical materialism and historical materialism.Chapter 2 is literature review. It sums up and generalizes the views on the root of current international financial crisis by domestic and foreign scholars, and then it classifies and comments these views. They can be divided into two categories:(1) Somebody said that the crisis has happened because of lack of supervision, underestimate the risk, overdraft consumption, neoliberalism and so on; (2) Somebody said that the crisis has happened because of the Human greed, capitalist system, the basic contradictions of capitalism and so on. Some of these ideas are relatively one-sided or even wrong. So it must be right to study on the root of the crisis by Marxism, to find the most profound causes of the crisis.Chapter 3 consists of three parts, studying on the crisis by Marxist crisis theory and Lenin’s theory of imperialism:(1) It introduces the Marx’s theory of economic crisis and financial crisis, and Lenin’s theory of imperialism. It summarises what conditions the financial crisis would happen possibly, and what conditions the financial crisis would happen definitely. It finds the relationship of fictitious capital and financial crises. (2) The crisis of capitalism has undergone transformation with the changing times and changing economic structure. The proportion of service industries of global economic output increased, and the financial industry become the largest source of profits in capitalist country. Despite the ongoing crisis of capitalism, the essence of crises is still capitalist overproduction, but the form of crisis has evolved industry crisis into financial crisis. (3) Credit expansion and globalization are catalyst of the capitalism financial crisis. The real economies of capitalist countries have become "hollow" because of credit expansion. And the financial globalization accelerated, which also made the contradictions of contemporary capitalism to accumulate and deepen.Chapter 4 summarizes four characteristics of the current crisis by reviewing the history of capitalist crisis, and comparing past crises to the current crisis:(1) Overproduction and "excess demand" coexist; (2) Fictitious economy and real economic imbalance; (3) The current financial crisis affected severely on the world economy. (4) The financial hegemony of developed countries led by the U.S. became much clear. This work is of great reference value which many countries deal with financial crisis.Chapter 5 focuses on how China should deal with crisis. (1) To transform the economic development mode, continue to expand domestic demand; (2) To promote the financial reform of financial system, and explore the internationalization of RMB, participate in the financial reform of international financial system. On the other hand, we will adhere to Marxism, and approach towards Marxism, continue to take the socialist road with Chinese characteristics.In this paper, I strive to be innovative in the following areas:First, to study on the international financial crisis by Marxist crisis theory and Lenin’s theory of imperialism.Second, to sum of the distinctions of capitalist "classical crisis" and "modern crisis". Overproduction and lack of demand can be seen, which is a "classic crisis"; but the current crisis has the performance of "excess demand". Third, to study on the relationship between the current crisis and fictitious economy. Profit-margin declined because of the real economy problems. Then capital gained into the fictitious economy until the crisis brok out.Fourth, to study on how the real economy problems lead to the sub-prime crisis, and how the sub-prime crisis lead to the international financial crisis.更多还原