中东能源因素对大国能源战略的影响

【作者】 黄琳；

【导师】 汪波；

【作者基本信息】 上海外国语大学 ， 国际关系， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 自从1993年中国成为石油净进口国以来,人们开始越来越多的关注石油安全问题,同时也开始关注“中东”这个似乎曾经离中国很遥远的地区。提起中东能源,人们首先会想起的就是石油。这是因为,在中东地区,几乎没有不与石油相联系的问题,不是起源于石油,就是归结于石油。在半个多世纪的时间里,中东石油以其巨大的储产量对世界经济政治和国际关系产生过巨大而深远的影响,不少西方发达国家以及发展中国家都高度依赖中东石油的供应。“9·11”事件以后,随着世界经济的发展,国际能源的供应也出现多元化趋势,中东地区不再像原来那样一家独大,非洲、中亚里海地区、俄罗斯均在国际能源格局中占领新的高地。但是中东仍在世界能源格局中占据重要地位,因此,中东的能源因素仍是影响各大国能源战略调整的重要变量,也必将对国际关系产生影响。本文除导论和结论部分外,共分为六章,分析结构及其框架安排如下:导论部分主要是对论文的研究背景、相关概念界定、国内外相关研究情况、理论基础和文章的写作思路进行简单的介绍。第一章主要是介绍中东在国际能源格局中不变的重要地位,主要是因为中东的地缘政治重心地位没有改变,中东油气的储产比远高于其他地区和国家,而且长期以来,中东一直主宰着全球石油生产和出口贸易,这一传统将长期保持下去,最重要的是中东地区石油不仅储量丰富,且开发条件优越。就本文选取的分析目标国(地区)来看,各国(地区)都对各自的能源战略进行了调整,且目标各不相同:第二章的内容是分析基于中东能源因素的影响,美国的能源战略的调整及其目标——通过牢牢控制中东的石油,为其建立全球霸权奠定基础。本章通过四个小节来梳理美国政府能源战略调整演变过程,可以看到:1973年以前的美国政府,其石油政策主要在于控制进口;而从尼克松到克林顿政府的30多年里,美国的能源战略一直是以保证中东石油稳定供应为目标;到了小布什政府时期,由于国际能源形势发生了变化,其能源战略也调整为增加储备,开拓新资源;奥巴马上台以后,首要任务就是在中东地区修复美国形象、确保美国石油供给,同时推行“新能源计划”。第三章分析欧盟。欧盟的中东能源战略的目标也很明确,就是为了保证其成员国能源的供应,在此基础上,能够保持其在国际事务中的独立性。目前由27国组成的欧盟是世界上最大的能源消费体和第二大能源进口方,是世界上最大的单一能源市场。中东石油价格波动对欧盟经济形成很大的冲击,同时,其他大国对中东能源的依赖也对欧盟能源需求形成威胁。基于此,欧盟《能源宪章条约》于1998年4月16日开始生效。《能源宪章条约》被设计为欧盟对外能源战略和政策的基础,主要内容包括保护和推动能源投资、能源自由贸易、提倡能源运输的管道和网点的自由化、降低能源使用对环境造成的负面影响,提高能源利用效率、设立争端解决机制。欧盟所采取的具体措施有:第一,建立中东地区“能源政策新秩序”,稳定中东石油供应;第二,保障来自俄罗斯的能源输入,与俄罗斯签署长期条约和合同,包括能源基础设施建设,给俄罗斯以长期稳定的投资保障,帮助俄罗斯实行内部能源市场调整和节能计划,并为此提供投资;第三,开拓中亚等新来源,将里海、中亚和非洲的能源作为欧洲能源的储备。第四章通过三个小节的内容来分析俄罗斯的能源战略的目标——复兴大国地位。在本文讨论的几个“大国”中,俄罗斯的油气资源状况是最为独特的。其他大国均为石油进口大国,对中东石油资源有着高度的依赖性,而俄罗斯本身即为能源大国。因此,中东的石油对俄罗斯有着特殊意义,俄罗斯的能源战略调整也有着与其他大国格外不同的目标定位。俄罗斯将能源产业视为刺激经济复兴的重要推动力,认为制定长期的能源发展战略和安全战略的意义不仅在于推动国内经济的发展,更重要的是,对俄罗斯恢复大国地位有着决定性的意义。俄罗斯的中东政策也经历了三个阶段,分别是俄罗斯“一边倒”时期的中东政策、20世纪90年代下半期对中东政策和普京时期对中东政策。同西方尤其是美国对中东政策的意图相比较,俄罗斯对中东政策经济色彩利益明显大于政治意图,俄罗斯考虑更多的是在中东的经济利益,其根本点在于利用自身的能源优势,逐渐恢复在中东地区的影响力,进而复兴自己的大国地位。众所周知,日本是世界第二大经济大国,同时也是一个能源消费大国和资源极度贫乏的国家。对于日本来说,能源安全问题不仅关系到其整个国家经济发展,甚至关系到其国家的生死存亡。第五章的内容是分析日本的能源战略目标——谋求国家生存,在此基础上谋求大国地位。相比较其他国家而言,日本更加倚重中东的能源进口,也相应的制定了更加完善的对内对外能源战略:一、谋求能源结构多样化,开发新能源,提高能源使用效率;二、分散石油进口来源,谋求能源进口多元化;三、重建与中东石油出口国的合作伙伴关系。同时,日本也注重发挥海上优势,确保能源运输安全。第六章分析中国的能源战略。中国的能源战略的目标也很明确,就是保护改革开放的经济成果,保证中国经济的可持续发展。但是,中国石油供应状况非常严峻,石油安全不容乐观,主要是面临三大挑战:第一、中国石油对外依存度过大;第二、中国石油进口空间紧缩;第三、石油运输的脆弱性明显,“马六甲困局”难以破解。在这样的能源基础上,中国把能源战略的重点放在了中东石油外交上,与沙特、伊朗、伊拉克还有海湾合作组织积极展开合作,确保中国在中东的能源利益。在这样的情况下,“中国石油威胁论”有所抬头,中国公平合理参与全球油气资源的竞争受到少数大国的误解。在中东地区,中国与各大国之间的关系也比较微妙,中美之间是竞争与合作的关系;中日之间理性交往,谋求互利共赢;中俄关系是合作大于竞争;中欧则是利益共同体。最后,对于中国能源安全战略有以下几点思考与建议:第一,要学会国际能源竞争的游戏规则,做到有的放矢;第二、要建立国家层面的统一的能源管理机构,加强能源立法并依法管理;第三、健全能源发展战略,使其长期化、全面化、指标化;第四、确定海外能源开发的战略重点;第五,通过加强国防建设,尤其是海军力量的建设,加强与韩国、日本的合作,并通过对新加坡、马来西亚和印度尼西亚的外交努力,来破解我国石油运输安全的“马六甲困局”,保卫我国的海外能源利益。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since China became a net importer of oil in 1993, people paid more and more attention on oil security. At the same time,“Middle East”appeared before us though it seemed to be a physically remote region from China. Speak to Middle East’s energy; oil is the first thing which can be mentioned. In the region of Middle East, almost every thing is related with oil. It is a reason of oil or it is a result of oil. In recent half century, Middle East’s oil has affected deeply on world economy and polity and international relations. Both developed countries and developing countries are depending on the supply of Middle East oil.After“9·11”event, international energy supply has the trend of pluralism with the development of world economy, Middle East is no longer as the only No. 1 as before. Africa, Central Asian and Russia have their own show in the pattern of international energy. But Middle East is still in the important position in international energy pattern. So the energy of Middle East will still affect the energy strategy of powerful countries.There are six chapters in this paper except introduction and conclusion. The structure and framework organized as follows:Part one is the introduction of the research background, definition of key words, researching condition in and out China, the theory basis etc.Chapter 1 is the introduction of the important position of Middle East in international energy pattern. Mainly because of the core position doesn’t change. The rate of reserves and production of Middle East’s oil and gas is much higher than any other region and country. And in a long time, Middle East is in charge of the global oil production and export. Most important is that it is much easier to exploit oil in Middle East.Chapter 2 is the analysis of the changing of the US energy strategy based on the impact of Middle East’s Energy. The US energy strategy in the Middle East objectives is to seek dominance in the Middle East and control its oil resources to manipulate the international oil market and maintain its global hegemony.There are 4 sections in this chapter. We can see the changing procession of American energy strategy. Before 1973, it is the controlling of import oil. During the more than 30 years from Nixon to Clinton , the goal of is to ensure the steady supply of Middle East’s oil. During the period of George W Bush , because of the changing of international energy, the American energy strategy changed to increase energy store and exploit new resource. After Obama became the President, his first duty is to fix the Image of America, ensure the oil supply to America and carry out“the New Energy Plan”.Chapter 3 is the analysis of EU. EU’s energy strategy objective is very clear too, which is ensuring the oil supply to its membership countries. Further on this base, it can maintain its independence in international affairs. The EU is the most energy consumer and the second great energy importer. The surge of the oil price in Middle East will shock EU’s economy. At the same time, the dependence of Middle East’s oil of other powerful countries is threat to EU too. So there are three measures carried on in EU: firstly, establishing a“new order of energy policy”in Middle East region to keep the stable supply of oil; secondly, ensuring the energy import from Russia, signing longtime treaties and contracts with Russia, which including the energy infrastructure construction, giving Russia longtime and stable invest guarantee, helping Russia to change its civil energy market and energy conservation plans; thirdly, developing as the new source, storing the energy of Caspian region, Central Asian region and African region.In chapter 4, there are three sections to analyze the goal of Russia’s energy strategy——Reviving. Russia’s energy status is particular because it is a big country which has abundant energy by itself. Other powerful countries have to depend on the Middle East’s energy. So the Middle East’s oil is special to Russia. Its energy strategy is quite different from other countries. There are three stages about Russia’s policy on Middle East, which are“only follow with the USA”stage,“the late half 20th century 1990 ages”stage and Putin stage. Russia’s Middle East policy is more focus on economic interests than political interests compare with America. Russia’s final goal in Middle East is to revive its old powerful status.As we all know, Japan is the second rich country in the world. At the same time, it’s a big energy consuming country while resource is badly poor. To Japan, energy security issue is about not only its economic development but also its survival. Chapter 5 is to analyze Japan energy strategy objective——to make living and then to pursue to become a powerful country. Japan is much more dependent on Middle East energy than any other country. So it focuses on establishing diversified energy structure, exploiting new energy, improving the efficiency of energy using, dispersing the oil import source and rebuilding the relationship with oil-exporting countries of Middle East.Chapter 6 is to analyze China energy strategy, which is to protect the achievements of reform and open and ensure the China’s sustainable development. There are three challenges to China which are highly dependent on import energy, reducing of oil import and weakness of oil carriage through the sea-route. The problems in the sea-route of Malacca are difficult to deal with. So China put its emphasis on Middle East oil diplomacy to cooperate with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Gulf Cooperation Committee.“Theory of Chinese oil threat”shows that there is misunderstanding on China’s seeking energy fairly and rationally. In Middle East region, the relations between China and other powerful countries are subtle.Finally, there are some suggestions: firstly, China must control the rule of international energy games; secondly, we should build a united energy management organization; thirdly, improving the energy development strategy to be more perfect; fourthly, determine the overseas energy strategy emphasis; lastly, strengthen Chinese Navy.更多还原