外空安全战略研究

【作者】 张泽；

【导师】 苏浩；

【作者基本信息】 外交学院 ， 外交学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 本文以外空安全为研究对象，在回顾“天权论”由来、定义和内涵，以及归纳外空安全主要理论流派的基础上，提出“外空安全区间分析体系”。综合运用不同理论流派的合理内核，结合对影响各国外空安全战略决策正向、负向要素的分析，提出了外空安全三种相对稳定、且最具现实可能的前景，并针对中国的外空安全战略提出设想和决策思考。本文在绪论部分开宗明义介绍选题目的与理论和现实意义，简要综述国内外与本文选题相关研究的现状，针对本文涉及的包括外空、外空武器、外空军事化等重要概念进行讨论与界定。然后，概括性地介绍本文研究思路，分析可行性并提出研究方法。绪论部分还介绍了本文的创新之处与撰写难点，并介绍本文框架和章节设计思路，为展开进一步研究奠定了基础。第一章和第二章是本文的理论建构部分。第一章在回顾战略和地缘政治理论演进基础上，系统介绍“天权论”的由来、定义和内涵，尝试着归纳性地介绍国际关系理论有关外空安全的四个主要理论流派，并定性探讨外空安全的定义、内涵及主要外空安全威胁。这一章是本文进一步研究的理论基础。第二章是本文理论创新重点，对外空武器战略价值、影响外空战略的正向、负向因素做了深入、系统分析，从理论角度对外空安全前景做了分析，提出了“外空安全区间分析体系”，即：在不同国际关系理论和战略取向共同作用下，外空安全将呈现出在“全面毁灭性战争”与“确保外空永久和平法律秩序”两极之间的安全区间分布状态。从第三章起本文进入实证推理部分。第三章探讨外空大国的安全战略与外空能力，涉及美国、俄罗斯、欧洲国家及新兴空间国家等。第四章全面介绍外空多边安全论坛相关情况，并分析面临的主要问题，包括联合国、裁谈会等外空安全多边论坛。第三、四章进一步印证第二章提出的“外空安全区间分析体系”。第五章论述中国的外空安全战略选择，重点围绕外空安全战略目标、战略能力、战略途径等分析论证。通过本文研究可以发现，“天权论”在人类进入外空时代后正成为主流的战略思想。外空安全受制于诸多因素，外空安全前景将是动态的区间体系。中国必须做好外空安全顶层设计，以维护本国“天权”和全球安全为总目标，相应地在战略能力、战略途径等方面做好设计。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper focuses on space security. With historical reviews over the root, definitionand nature of the space power and general reflection on major schools of the internationalrelations on space security issue, the author creates a “space security spectrum analysis model”.In that model, the author absorbs rationales from major schools of international relations, givesfull analysis over both positive and negative elements regarding space security strategy-makingprocess, and raises three most probable scenarios for space security. Based on that, the authorraises his own perspectives on China’s national strategy for space security.In the Introduction, it is openly stated the issue of focus to this paper, that is, the spacesecurity strategy for China, briefly reviews are given to domestic and international studies onthis topic, and several key definitions and terms, such as the outer space, outer space weapons,the weaponization of out space, etc., are discussed in this part as well. The author alsopresents in this part his research approach and methodology, the new thinking in this paper anddifficult point for research, as well as basic structural settings for the paper.Chapter One and Chapter Two are devoted to establishing the “spectrum analysis model”for space security. In Chapter One, reviews are given over strategic and geo-political theoriesand four major schools of space security analysis, focusing on the root, definition and nature ofthe space power, and reflecting also on the definition and nature of space security. In ChapterTwo, a new model for space security study is established, which reveals that different status ofspace security would compose a spectrum allocation with “completely destructive space war”as one end and the “legal framework ensuring eternal peace in space” as the other. The statusof space security would not stay in still, on the contrary, as a result of joint influence ofdifferent national strategic approaches, the space security situation may move vividly along thatspectrum between those two ends.Based on this model, the paper keeps researching over major space-faring nations’ strategyfor space, their space capabilities, and those major international fora on space security issue,such as the UNGA, the CD and the COPUOS. With further findings on reasonableexplanation over often aggressive national space security approaches and internationalinstitution building stalemates, the paper proves its spectrum analysis model for space security.In Chapter Five, which focusing on China’s national space strategy, the author gives a fulldiscussion over strategic goals, capabilities, approaches and major elements respectively. It isproposed that China now is in great need to carry out a roof-setting strategy in the field of spacesecurity and space development.As some major findings and conclusions, the paper rules that the space power theory hasbeen upgrading for itself since mankind entered into the space, thus it will become a majorstrategic theory. The space security is determined by many elements, and different spacesecurity scenarios would appear to the world a spectrum with two defined ends in this paper.It is of vital importance for China, under current circumstances, to set up its own national spacestrategy, with maintenance of national space power and international space peace as the finalgoals, and to design for itself regarding indispensable strategic capabilities and approaches toobtain those capabilities and fulfill those goals.更多还原