【作者】 李翀；

【导师】 刘思峰；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 系统工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 供应链管理不仅是现代企业管理中不可缺少的核心组成部分，也是提高企业绩效、增强企业竞争力的重要手段。供应链管理的效率在某种程度上能够决定企业的成败兴衰。牛鞭效应的存在不仅导致需求信息的失真，使得供应链上游节点企业无法准确把握市场需求，扰乱了正常的企业生产计划，降低了企业应对市场需求波动的能力，使得整个供应链运作失调，导致企业运作成本、管理风险的增加，客户服务水平的降低。面对时刻变化的经济环境以及日益激烈的市场竞争，加深对供应链牛鞭效应的产生条件、影响因素以及演变机理的研究，深入研究牛鞭效应的控制策略和方法，缓解牛鞭效应对企业的冲击，对于提升供应链效益、增强企业竞争力、防御外部冲击、实现经济的健康稳定发展有着重要的现实意义。本文从供应链库存网络系统的视角展开，针对牛鞭效应问题，深入分析研究了牛鞭效应产生的内部机理、主要影响因素以及其动态演变规律，从库存控制的角度设计牛鞭效应的抑制策略和方法，并进行对比分析，主要研究工作有：(1)供应链网络系统牛鞭效应的形成因素识别。系统梳理造成供应链网络系统牛鞭效应的社会、经济、文化等各种因素，按照因素间的相互关系和对牛鞭效应的影响强度，进行因素分类，从中提取出影响供应链网络系统稳定性的关键因素；进一步界定关键因素的内涵、作用方式和影响范围，为供应链网络库存模型的构建奠定基础。(2)不确定性因素对牛鞭效应影响的研究。针对供应链系统运作中存在的各种不确定性因素，依据因素间相互关系和它们对供应链系统的影响作用方式，对不确定性因素进行分类；提取造成牛鞭效应的关键不确定性因素，界定其内涵和不确定性范围。在此基础上，进一步分析不确定性因素对供应链系统的影响方式和作用强度，为研究不确定性环境下的供应链库存系统状态演变规律创造条件。(3)供应链网络系统牛鞭效应的模型构建与研究。基于前两个研究内容，采用结构化的分析方法，综合需求、供给、制造三个层面，构建供应链网络系统的数学分析模型。在模型基础上运用定量分析方法，分析各类确定性因素、不确定性因素对供应链系统运作效益的影响。首先，在供应链网络系统节点企业层面上，研究企业的库存策略、生产能力、市场响应能力、资源配置能力等对企业自身供应链管理效果的影响；其次，在整个供应链网络系统层面上，考虑各节点企业的相互关系，汇总节点企业的供应链管理表现，研究分析牛鞭效应的系统内部生成机理以及演变规律特征，并借助数学模型加以描述。(4)供应链不确定性因素对牛鞭效应的影响研究。首先，提出基于库存水平状态波动的牛鞭效应量化方法；其次，综合运用系统动力学方法和数学推理方法，从库存管理、信息技术的使用和信息共享、风险预测与管理、供应链灵敏性等方面详细研究了供应链系统内外不确定性因素以及不同因素组合对牛鞭效应影响范围以及作用强度的影响。(5)牛鞭效应的控制方法和策略研究。在分析牛鞭效应的成因和系统内部动力学演化机理的基础上，从主要影响因素着手，针对不同的社会经济环境，从信息共享、敏捷供应链建设、企业的风险应对能力、库存管理、成本管理等几个方面研究牛鞭效应的控制方法和相应的库存策略设计问题，分析对比不同的库存策略的作用效果，最终形成供应链库存管理的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Improving the supply chain performance and achieving agility in supply chain management,namely, quick and high-quality response to demands, increasing products variety, reducing productlife cycle etc, become essential to enterprises. To a certain extent, the supply chain managementdetermines the final success of enterprises. The Bullwhip Effect (or Whiplash Effect) has beenrecognized as one of the most problematic issues to be faced in supply chain management. It not onlyindicates the vulnerability of supply chain system to external interference, especially the demandfluctuations, but also imposes great human, financial and resource burden on supply chain participants.It is clear that studying the endogenous dynamical mechanism and dynamical characteristics ofbullwhip effect will not only improve our understanding of supply chain operations but also providesome theoretical basis for policy making. This paper studies the bullwhip effect problem from theviewpoint of supply chain networks and focuses on the formation mechanism of bullwhip effect andtheir dynamic control strategies. The main research work includes:(1) Identifying the factors contributing to bullwhip effect in supply chain networks. First, thevarious social, economical, cultural influences that contribute to bullwhip effect are analyzed.According to the impact strength of these factors on bullwhip effect and the relationship betweenthem, the key factors are identified and their mode of actions and effect on supply chain performanceare studied. These make preparations for the supply chain inventory network model construction.(2) Analyzing the uncertainties in bullwhip effect. The main uncertaint factors of bullwhip effectare identified and classified according to their relationship between each other and their effect on thesupply chain system. These uncertain factors are descriped in mathematical variable forms in thesupply chain inventory network model construction. This paper mainly focuses on the uncertainfactors of market demand, information transmission, production process, supply chain systemstructure, inventory policy implementation and lead time delays. These uncertainties also playimportant role in the bullwhip effect control policy making.(3) Supply chain inventory networks system modeling. Applying the structured method, the systemstate transition models of supply chain inventory networks are built, which contain the levels ofdemand, supply and manufacturing. Based on these system models, the various certain factors anduncertain factors of bullwhip effect in supply chain systems are analyzed. Firstly, on the level ofsupply chain network node enterprises, the effect of uncertainties of demand, production capacity,lead time delays and the supply chain network structure on bullwhip effect is analyzed. Secondly, on the whole supply chain system level, considering the relationship between supply chain members andtheir management polices, the endogenous dynamical mechanism and dynamical characteristics ofbullwhip effect are descriped using mathematical models.(4) Analyzing the effect of uncertainties on bullwhip effect in supply chains. Firstly, themeasurement of bullwhip effect based on the inventory position fluctuations is proposed. Then, theeffect of uncertainties on bullwhip effect is studied, which includes the inventory management, theinformation transmission and sharing, risk prediction and management, ordering sensitivity analysis,and so on. Methods used in this study include the system dynamics analyzing and mathematicalreasoning.(5) Inventory control strategies and policies that aim to reduce the bullwhip effect are proposed.Based on the endogenous dynamical mechanism and dynamical characteristics of bullwhip effect insupply chain networks, the strategies and control methods of bullwhip effect are designed, whichmainly focuse on the major causes of inventory position fluctuations, such as the limited informationsharing, the change of supply chain topology and the capacity to respond to market demand changes.Further, simulation studies are carried out, which shows the effect of the inventory control methodsdesigned in this study on reducing the bullwhip effect and improving supply chain performance.These provide new methods for supply chain managers, allowing them to find the weak links insupply chains, design better inventory control strategy and improve SC performance.更多还原