【作者】 姚奕；

【导师】 倪勤；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 全球气候变化问题是一个全球广泛关注的焦点问题。二氧化碳等温室气体排放的快速增长，以及由此而引起的全球气候变暖已经影响到能源、国际贸易以及国家安全等诸多领域，成为全世界共同面对且亟需解决的问题。作为负责任的大国，中国政府已经明确将发展低碳经济作为国家长远战略，提出了到2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%—45%的减排目标，并将这一目标纳入国民经济和社会发展中长期规划中，以实际行动表明中国应对气候问题的决心。改革开放以来，外商直接投资是中国经济持续稳定增长的一个重要推动力。外商直接投资在带动中国经济发展的同时，也代替发达国家生产了大量的高碳含量产品，年转移碳排放高达10亿吨，外商直接投资造成的“转移性碳排放”不容忽视。因此，碳排放的研究应该考虑到国际投资和贸易引发的转移性排放。另一方面，研发和推广气候友好型技术对于发展绿色经济、低碳经济至关重要。技术进步和科技创新是提高能源利用效率、减少二氧化碳排放的重要途径，而外商直接投资技术溢出是发展中国家技术进步的主要来源之一。外商直接投资对中国碳强度到底产生了怎样的影响呢？基于此，本文从外商直接投资技术溢出角度，研究外商直接投资与二氧化碳排放之间的关系，研究内容主要包括：1.从经济水平、产业结构、能源消费结构、人民生活水平等方面进行分析，将国际投资和贸易引发的转移性排放等因素综合考虑，建立了碳排放评价指标体系，运用改进的投影寻踪分类模型对中国1996-2008年碳排放影响因素进行分析，研究结果表明外商直接投资是影响中国碳排放的重要因素。分析还指出，中国碳排放的区域差异较大，空间因素起了一定的作用。2.利用面板数据的单位根检验和协整检验证明外商直接投资与碳强度之间存在长期的均衡关系，然后从时间的角度出发，运用动态面板回归模型分析外商直接投资与碳强度的动态关系。3.针对中国碳排放变化呈现明显的地区性差异、碳排放省际差异较为显著的特点，从空间的角度出发，运用空间计量经济学考察中国各地区碳强度的空间相关性；在此基础之上，通过建立空间面板回归模型，研究外商直接投资对碳强度的影响。4.从结构分析的角度出发，通过对数平均迪氏指数分解法从外商直接投资的规模效应、结构效应和技术溢出效应三方面对碳强度进行因素分解研究。研究结果表明:外商直接投资是影响碳排放的重要因素，外商直接投资技术溢出能有效降低中国的碳强度。因此，应当扩大外商直接投资的力度和规模，优化外商直接投资的投资结构，增加中国科技研发投入，提高中国自主研发水平，同时，优化产业结构，大力发展低碳特征的第三产业，以确保碳减排目标的实现。更多还原

【Abstract】 The global attention is concentrating in the global climate change. The rapid growth of emissionof carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas and the global warming have already affected the energy,international trade and national security and other areas, so the emission of carbon dioxide hasbecome the problem which the whole world must face and solve. As a responsible big country, theChinese government has developed made low-carbon economy as a national long-term strategy, andhas proposed the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP of2020will be down40%-45%than of2005to show that China’s determination to tackle climate problem, which has been brought in thelong-term economic and social development plan.Since the reform and opening up, the foreign direct investment is an important driving force topromote economic development of China. Foreign direct investment in driving China’s economicdevelopment, at the same time, China also develops a large number of high-carbon content productsdue to foreign direct investment. So the metastatic carbon emissions can not be ignored. Therefore,the research on carbon emissions should consider the international investment. On the other hand, R&D and climate-friendly technologies is essential for the development of the green economy andlow-carbon economy. Technological progress and technological innovation are important ways toimprove energy efficiency and to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, while the spillovers of foreigndirect investment in developing countries is the major source of technological progress. So, which akind of impact foreign direct investment on China’s carbon intensity produced?So, technology spillovers from foreign direct investment are considered to study the relationshipbetween foreign direct investment and carbon dioxide emissions, and main contents include:1．The evaluation index system of carbon emissions is established considering the economiclevel, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, people’s living standards, internationalinvestment and trade. According to Projection Pursuit classification model, the carbon emissionsfactors are analyzed in China from1996to2008, which shows foreign direct investment is animportant factor in China’s carbon emissions. The result also points out spatial factors play animportant role on China’s carbon emissions.2. The long-term equilibrium relationship between foreign direct investment and the carbonintensity is proved by panel data unit root tests and co integration tests. Then from the perspective oftime, dynamic panel regression model is adopted to analyze the dynamic relationship between foreigndirect investment and the carbon intensity.3. The regional spatial correlation of carbon intensity in China is tested by the spatialeconometrics on the basis of significant regional differences of carbon emissions in China. Then thespatial regression model is established to study the relationship between foreign direct investment andthe carbon intensity.4. From the perspective of structural analysis, the carbon intensity factors are decomposed fromeconomies of scale, structure, technology spillover effects of foreign direct investment by the indexdecomposition method.The results show that: foreign direct investment is an important factor affecting carbon emissions, and the technology spillovers of foreign direct investment can effectively reduce the carbon intensityof China. Therefore, we should expand foreign direct investment in the scale and optimize theinvestment structure of foreign direct investment. At the same time, R&D investment must beincreased in China to improve China’s own R&D level. Finally, in order to ensure carbon emissionreduction goals, the industrial structure should be optimized to develop the tertiary industrycharacterized by low-carbon.更多还原