【作者】 袁迎菊；

【导师】 才庆祥；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学 ， 资源开发与规划， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国能源消耗的快速增长，煤炭产量也不断增加。煤炭在生产和消费过程中排放大量温室气体，对环境产生严重影响。本文从低碳经济和征收碳排放税的政策下，对煤炭产业链的现状进行了深入研究，得出了以下结论：通过对煤炭产业链低碳演化进程的综合分析，分析了现有煤炭产业链结构，基于PICC标准，提出了煤炭产业链碳排放的度量方法——原煤生产、瓦斯逸散、外购能源消耗、煤矸石发电等环节碳排放的度量方法，分析了影响煤炭产业链低碳技术与影响演化过程的内部和外部因素，给出了煤炭产业链演化过程。通过分析煤炭产业链的生产成本组成，设计了不同碳排放税下煤炭产业链交易的经济实验，建立了煤炭产业链生产成本传导模型，分析了碳排放税在煤炭产业链传导规律，基于对实验数据的回归分析，得出了煤炭产业链各个环节向其下游传递成本的意向，其利润高的环节消化生产成本能力越大，验证了煤炭产业链不同层级的选择倾向。基于自组织理论、交易费用理论、博弈理论和路径依赖理论，详细分析了不同低碳经济下煤炭产业链路径形成的过程，得出了煤炭产业链关键节点并辨识获取了关键节点的关键参数，最终获得了人、机、料、法、环五个方面的具体参数，包括人力成本、设备维修成本、管理成本、环境修复成本、煤炭资源转化率及二次回收率等几个方面的关键参数。依据运用多Agent的复杂自适应系统的基本概念，根据煤炭产业链的生产、洗选、粗加工、精加工、消费这五个环节，建立多Agent的复杂自适应系统的煤炭产业链的决策模型，基于网络的煤炭产业链成本传递假设和点线容量归一化假设，实现了现实世界和数学模拟的联系。通过分析，得出了煤炭产业链上的各个环节追求整体利益的同时，也追求各自更高的个体收益。向下游转移成本的比例，受限于整体的利益。以潞安集团煤炭产业链为例，依据集团发展的经济效益及目标，分析其在低碳经济下的煤炭产业链存在问题，并给出了优化调整方案。潞安集团应该从产业链整体角度进行调控，避免成本过多转嫁；逐步退出发电、水泥行业，以降低赋税；进一步增加产业链的链长，以提高煤炭本体加工业的经济效益。验证了研究内容、方法与结果的正确性和有效性，为我国煤炭产业链低碳化发展提供了理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Volumes of coal production increase rapidly with the growth of domestic energyconsumption. Large amount of greenhouse gas is discharged in the process of coalproduction and consumption, which makes serious influence on environment. Thedissertation made a research on the current situation of coal industry chain underpolicy of low carbon economy and carbon discharge tax, and drew the followingconclusions.This research analyzed current chain structure of coal industry according tocomprehensive analysis of low carbon evolution process of coal industry, and hasbrought about measurement methods of carbon discharge in coal industry, includingthe chains of coal production, gas dissipation, outsourcing energy consumption, coalwaste fired power and so on. This dissertation has also made a study on the internaland external factors which have influences on the low carbon technology andevolution process in coal industry, and come up with the evolution process of coalindustry chain.According to the analysis of production cost components in coal industry chain,this research designed economic experiments of coal industry chain transaction underdifferent conditions of carbon discharge tax, established production cost transmissionmodel in coal industry chain. Based on regression analysis of experimental data, thisresearch has concludes that each link tends to transfer production cost to thedownstream one in the whole coal industry chain. A link with higher profits appearsmore powerful in digesting production cost, which confirms there is a choicetendency of different levels in coal industry chain.Based on the theories of integrated organization, transaction cost, game and pathdependence, this dissertation analyzed the formation process of coal industry chainpaths under different low carbon economies, produced key notes in coal industrychain and identified five specific parameters in human, machine, materials, law andenvironment aspects, including key parameters in costs of human, equipmentmaintenance, management, and environmental restoration, as well as coal resourceconversion rate and secondary recovery rate.According to the basic concept of multi-agent complex adaptive system, thisresearch established the determination model of coal industry chain in multi-agentcomplex adaptive system, based on the five links of production, washing, rough machining, meticulous machining and consumption. Through hypotheses of costtransmission and point-line capacity normalization in coal industry chain, thisdissertation made a connection between real world and mathematical simulation.Analyses showed each link in coal industry chain pursues higher individual incomewhen they target for the overall benefits. Proportion of cost transferring todownstream link is restricted to the overall benefits.This research took the coal industry chain of Lu An Group as an example,analyzed the existing problems in coal industry chain under low carbon economy andbrought about optimal adjustment plan, based on the economic profit and target ofgroup development. It is concluded that Lu An Group should conduct regulation andcontrol from overall industry chain aspect to avoid more cost shift, gradually quitpower generation and cement industries to reduce taxes, and further increase thelength of industry chain to improve the economic benefit of coal processing industry.This case study validates the correctness and validity of research contents, methodsand results, which provides a theoretical basis for low carbon development ofdomestic coal industry chain.更多还原