【作者】 韩瑞玲；

【导师】 佟连军；

【作者基本信息】 中国科学院研究生院(东北地理与农业生态研究所) ， 人文地理学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 自新中国成立以来,东北地区一直是我国的重工业发展的核心区域。但由于以前粗放的发展模式,造成了一些资源和生态环境问题：环境污染欠账多,治理难度较大,经济发展与环境污染的矛盾异常突出。尤其是,近年来随着城市化与工业化的加速、高质量转变,有些过去未引起重视的环境问题逐步显现。沈阳经济区作为东北老工业基地的核心区和典型代表,其工业体系主要以机械、冶金、石化、煤炭、电力、建材为主体。在重工业比重占主体的工业结构中,其环境破坏也较为突出。本研究从区域和市域2个尺度上运用多种研究方法对沈阳经济区1990年以来经济—环境系统的时空演变格局进行全方位、多角度分析,以期对沈阳经济区可持续发展提供可资借鉴的有益参考。论文的主要研究内容可分为5个部分：(1)经济—环境系统时空格局与协调发展研究的理论基础分析。基于已有研究成果,认为经济—环境系统时空格局与协调发展研究所涉及和可供借鉴的基本理论包括：可持续发展理论、人地关系理论、循环经济理论、协同学理论、环境与经济协同发展理论；并对新型工业化战略的内涵、特征、目标、约束条件进行全面阐述。(2)对沈阳经济区经济—环境系统的发展条件、时空演变做以详细分析。对沈阳经济区的资源、产业、经济结构、发展束缚等条件进行了详细分析,并判定其作为新型工业化综合配套改革试验区的发展条件、发展优势及发展必然性。对沈阳经济区经济发展、环境演变状况进行总结；以环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)为研究工具,对该区域经济与环境相互作用的程度、特点及表现进行综合评价；以DEA作为实现工具,对沈阳经济区及区内8个城市的经济—环境的发展效率进行了判定。(3)沈阳经济区各城市经济、环境发展的区域差异分析。主要利用空间数据探索分析方法,从市域尺度上对该区经济发展与环境质量的区域差异进行分析,计算各地区发展变化值,并对各地区发展类型进行划分。(4)沈阳经济区经济—环境系统区域尺度演变研究。此部分内容对沈阳经济区经济—环境协调发展程度做以综合度量。首先,选择耦合协调度模型、剪刀差方法、动态耦合模型,分别从宏观、微观方面反映了评定了经济系统与环境系统相互作用的状态及阶段性差异。其次,将静态研究与动态研究结合,同时将传统经济与环境关系的测度方法与计量经济学方法相结合,选择完全分解模型和向量误差修正模型(VEC),分别从区域问横向的空间作用、纵向的时间作用角度出发,将经济与环境关系的变化分解为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应,并对沈阳经济区经济与环境作用的关系进行了长期修正与短期校正。再次,选择计量经济学的预测模型,对沈阳经济区经济—环境系统的运行进行了短期预测。(5)沈阳经济区新型工业化发展的支撑系统及其对策建议。对沈阳经济区实行新型工业化实践过程中的软系统支持,包括政府政策、基础设施建设、区域制度、经济要素等。通过分析沈阳经济区支撑系统的现状,提出对其支撑系统的创新和转型改进。研究发现：(1)沈阳经济区经济—环境系统时间上的演变特征表现为在保持经济持续增长的同时,综合环境质量有所提高,但在主要污染物排放量等方面表现不佳。综合来看,沈阳经济区经济发展速度较快,人民生活水平和城市化进程都在快速提高,但产业结构仍然有待改进。沈阳经济区的工业废弃物排放量总体呈现出增长的趋势,区域经济—环境发展的综合效率呈现不断优化的态势。(2)1990-2009年,沈阳经济区经济系统的经济差异呈波动缩小的趋势,体现区域内部各城市发展逐步协调,区域之间的差异逐步缩小,区域不断走向一体化共同发展趋势。沈阳经济区环境水平差异呈波动缩小的趋势,但区域内各城市的环境发展水平的空间差异呈现逐步扩大趋势。(3)沈阳经济区经济—环境系统的耦合协调发展状态不断完善；经济发展与环境保护之间存在的剪刀差不断缩小证明了二者发展速度差异的缩小,有助于协调发展；耦合度模型表现出经济与环境系统的发展趋势朝着二者共同发展的方向演进。(4)沈阳经济区经济—环境时空研究表明,技术效应发挥了最突出的减量作用,经济效应的增量效应凸显,空间结构效应的作用不明显；保持GDP与工业废气排放、工业废物产生各自的均衡关系,对各变量的增长有促进作用,而保持GDP与工业废水排放的均衡关系,则对各变量的增长有抑制作用。(5)通过预测,2010-2015年,沈阳经济区经济类数据总体呈现不断增长的趋势。各环境类指标,原正向指标(指标越大越好)均有不同程度增长；原负向指标(指标越小越好)则有不同程度的下降。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the foundation of New China, Northeast China is still the core area of ourheavy industry development. However, because of the extensive development modebefore, some resources and environmental issues are caused. Such as, amountingowing debts from environmental pollution, governance is difficult and thecontradictions between economic development and environmental pollution isprominent exception. What s more, with the increasing change of industrialization andcivilization to quality oriented, some non-attention environmental problems in thepast are increasingly become apparent. Shenyang Economic Zone as the core area andtypical representative of heavy industrial region of Northeast China, its industrialsystem s body mainly depends on machinery, metallurgy, petrochemical, and coal,electricity as well as building materials. It is an important equipment manufacturingand raw material industrial base with the earliest establishment, the largest scale, acomplete sort and equipment of our country. In the proportion of heavy industry is thedominant industrial structure, its environmental destruction becomes more prominent.In this paper, Shenyang Economic Zone was taken for an example to analyze theenvironmental problems in the development process since1990. We employedseveral methods to investigate the spatial temporal evolvement process ofeconomic-environment system from area scale and city scale in order to bring forwardsome useful advice for the sustainable development in Shenyang Economic Zone.Main contents of the thesis are as followed:1. The basal theories about the research.Basing on the existing researches, we think that the correlative theories about theresearch including the sustainable theory, human relations theory, circular economytheory, synergetic theory, environment and economic collaborative developmenttheory, and make comprehensive exposition to the connotation, characteristic, targetand constraint of the New Industrialize Strategy. 2. Making detailed analysis of the development conditions, the space-time evolutionof economic and ecological system in Shenyang Economic Zone.Making detailed analysis about the resources, industries, economic structures,developing bounds and other conditions as well as space-time evolution of ShenyangEconomic Zone, then justifying the developing conditions, developing advantages anddeveloping necessities as a newly industrialization comprehensive reform pilot area.Concluding the economic development of Shenyang Economic Zone and the status ofenvironmental evolution, EKC as a research tool, making an evaluation about theregional economy and the environment, the extent of interaction, characteristic andperformance. Using DEA as a tool, then determine the development effectiveness ofeconomic and ecological system of Shenyang Economic Zone and the eight cities in.3. Regional differences analysis of the cities economic and environmentaldevelopment of Shenyang Economic Zone.In this part, we are using spatial data analysis methods, analyzing the regionaldifferences from the scale of the city in the area of economic development andenvironment quality, then calculating the change value of the area s development, anddividing the developing sorts of all parts.4. Regional-scale evolution of the economic and ecological system of ShenyangEconomic Zone.In this part, we are taking comprehensive measures to the coordination level ofeconomic and ecological system in Shenyang Economic Zone. Firstly, we choose thecoupled coordination model, scissors method and dynamic coupling mode whichreflecting the state of interaction and phase difference between economic system andecological system separately. Secondly, we are combining with static studies anddynamic studies as well as traditional economic and environmental relation witheconometric methods, choosing the complete decomposition model and VEC, fromthe view of the horizontal space between the role in the region and the longitudinaltime effects separately, decomposing the relationship between economy andenvironment into scale effects, structural effects and technology effects then makinglong-term fixes and short-term correction in the relationship between economy andenvironment of Shenyang Economic Zone. Thirdly, selecting the econometricforecasting model, and making a short-term forecasts for running the economic andecological system of Shenyang Economic Zone.5. Support system and suggestions for new industrialization development inShenyang Economic Zone. Implementing the new industrialization practice of process of ShenyangEconomic Zone, this is including government policies, infrastructure, regionalsystems and economic factors. By analyzing the support system status of ShenyangEconomic Zone, then proposing innovation, transformation and improvement to theirsupport systems.Main conclusions including the follow ones:(1) the economic and ecologicalsystems of Shenyang Economic Zone in time evolution characteristics, with theeconomic development, comprehensive-environmental quality were improving.However, in the missions of major pollutants and other aspects are poor performances.On the whole, although the developing speed of Shenyang Economic Zone is faster,the living standard of people and the process of urbanization is rapidly increased, theindustrial structures is still room for improvement. The overall industrial wasteemission of Shenyang Economic Zone shows a growth trend and the situation ofregional economic and ecological development efficiency presents a continuousoptimization.(2) From1990to2009, the economic differences of ShenyangEconomic Zone were fluctuations in the trend of shrinking, which reflecting theprogressive harmonization of urban region development, the differences betweenregions were gradually narrowing and moved towards integration as well as commondevelopment trends. However, the environment level differences of ShenyangEconomic Zone were fluctuations in the trend of shrinking, the difference of spacelevel development within the urban environment in the region were showing a gradualwidening.(3) The coupled coordination degree of the economic and ecological systemof Shenyang Economic Zone is continuously improving; the scissors betweeneconomic and environmental systems continue to narrow proving that both thedevelopment paces differences are shrinking, which is helpful to coordinatedevelopment; coupled model demonstrate the economic and ecological systemsdevelopment trends toward the common development direction of evolution.(4)Economic and ecological time and space study of Shenyang Economic Zone showingthat the technical effects has played a most prominent role in the reduction, theincremental effect of the economic effects highlights, while effects of spatial structureis not obvious; to maintain the GDP and industrial emissions, industrial waste abalanced relationship can promote the growth of each variable, while maintaining abalanced relationship between GDP and industrial wastewater discharge can inhibitthe growth of each variable.(5) By predicting, from2010to2015, ShenyangEconomic Zone economy class data overall shows a growing trend. From every kindof environmental categories of indicators, growth in varying degrees of the originalpositive indicators (the bigger, the better), decline in varying degrees of the originalnegative indicators (the smaller, the better).更多还原