【作者】 李超；

【导师】 覃成林；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 区域经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 追求现代化和发展现代产业是后发国家和地区经济发展的共同目标。由于历史和现实的诸多因素，发展中国家和地区普遍存在一种现代产业发展的“潮涌现象”，即地方政府、企业、金融机构纷纷在较短时期内，对一些新兴产业同时抱有很高的回报预期，大量的投资像潮水般涌向这些产业，出现“非理性繁荣”。当一轮社会投资完成之后，产能过剩将不可避免，企业大量亏损甚至破产、政府的政策性负担加重、银行呆坏账急剧上升。本文认为，这种“潮涌现象”的背后，暗含的是偏离比较优势的产业政策以及不适宜的技术选择。在理论模型部分，本文分别通过要素禀赋结构的微观分析框架和两部门模型的宏观分析与动态演化，研究发现，现代产业的发展模式和技术选择归根到底是由经济体的要素禀赋结构所内生决定的。从哲学意义上看，其发展历程是一个“量变引起质变”的演化过程。结合空间计量模型的实证分析表明，我国现代产业发展呈现出较为显著的空间集聚特征，东部沿海特别是长三角、珠三角和环渤海城市群成为我国现代产业的高度聚集区，而中西部地区现代产业发展水平则相对滞后。这种空间分布格局的形成主要可以从两个方面进行解释：一是由于各区域之间的要素禀赋结构存在巨大差异，二是因为各区域所推行的产业政策不同程度地遵循或违背了比较优势。全文的核心结论和主要观点可以概括如下：第一，要素禀赋是任何开放竞争条件下的经济体在面临产业、技术选择时最重要的约束条件。经济体若选择符合比较优势的产业发展政策，不但可以获得最快的资本积累速度，也可以获得最大的产出。第二，现代产业的发展绩效在很大程度上取决于该地区高端要素的丰裕程度。因此，后发国家和地区的政府应该把注意力放在如何促进要素禀赋的结构升级上，而不是单纯地以追求现代产业和先进技术为目标。第三，政府若无视本地的要素禀赋结构，继续选择偏离比较优势的政策，对于现代产业的发展而言效果将会适得其反。所以，政府在现代产业发展过程中，最为理想的状态应是“因势利导型政府”。第四，违背比较优势的政策成本存在区域差异。相比较而言，由于违背比较优势引致的对最优技术选择的偏离，将会导致经济发展水平较好和要素结构水平较高的地区反而会承担更大的边际成本。第五，现代产业空间组织的调整与完善，节点和枢纽功能的发挥，技术本地化趋势，以及建立在要素禀赋结构基础之上的产业结构演进和价值链治理模式，都能有效改进现代产业体系的空间运行效率。更多还原

【Abstract】 To pursue modernization and develop modern industry is the common goal of developingcountries and areas in economic development. Due to multifarious factors in both history andreality, there generally exists a “wave phenomenon” in developing countries and areas, whichis, in a short period, the local government, enterprises and financial institutes simultaneouslyhave high return expectation in some emerging industries. Large investment wave to thoseindustries and irrational exuberance appears. When this round of social investment completed,excess capacity is inevitable. Enterprises suffer losses or even bankruptcy, the governmentaggravate policy burden while the banks have more bad and doubtful debts. According to thecore opinion of this paper, behind the “wave phenomenon” imply the industrial policies thatdepart comparative advantage and inappropriate technology selection.In part of the theoretical model, this paper through micro framework of the factorendowment structure and macro-analytical of the two-sector model with the dynamic evolution,which find that the development style of modern industry and technology choice areendogenously decided by the economy’s endowment structure. To the Philosophical sense pointof view, the development process in modern industry also follows the principle “Quantitativecause a qualitative change”. Combined with spatial econometrical models, we find that modernindustry in our country presents a more significant characteristic of cluster. Eastern coastal areasespecially Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Bohai Ring Megalopolis have become intoChina’s modern industry accumulation region, while the central and western regions are laggingbehind. This spatial distribution pattern can be explained from two aspects: On the one hand, theendowment structures between the regions are divergent. On the other hand, regions′industrialpolicies following or contrarying to the comparative advantages.The core conclusion and main opinion is as follows: firstly, factor endowment is the mostimportant constraint factor for economy confront with industry and technology selection underany open and race condition. If the economy choosing industrial development policiesaccordingto its comparative advantage, it can not only get the fastest pace of capitalaccumulation，but also get the maximum output. Secondly, how modern industry developsgreatly depends on the abundance degree of high-end elements. So government of developingcountries and areas should pay attention to how to promote structure upgrade of factor endowment rather than merely pursue modern industries and advanced technologies. Thirdly, ifthe governments ignore local factor endowment structure and continue to select policiesdeparting comparative advantage, the modern industry development will just get the oppositeeffect. As a result, in modern industry development, the most ideal condition is to be a flexiblegovernment. Fourthly, policy cost for violating comparative advantage has regional differences.In comparison, the departing in selecting the best technology due to violating comparativeadvantage will cause the areas with better economic development and higher factor structurelevel to undertake higher marginal cost. Fifthly, modern industry spatial organization adjustmentand perfection, the realizing of node and hub function, trend of technology localization, andevolution of industrial structure and value chain governance mode based on factor endowmentstructure, will effectively improve modern industry operating efficiency.更多还原