【作者】 李宁；

【导师】 刘金山；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 国民经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 价格的变化会引起不同地区的相对利益调整，相对价格结构的变动引起生产要素的流动，改变不同产业的地理分布和行业分布，进而导致相对收入的变化，使得一些地区和经济主体受益较大而另一些地区和经济主体受益较小甚至受损，即产生价格波动的分配效应。由于面临的约束条件不同，价格波动的分配效应在不同地区、在不同历史时期的表现形式是多样化的。当前我国区域经济发展不平衡的客观事实以及各地区与全国总体经济的非同步性，使得中央政府统一的宏观调控政策在实际中对不同地区产生的影响并不相同，甚至可能出现对一些地区顺经济周期调控的失误。因此，价格波动的方式及其分配效应的客观存在及区域差异，是一个亟待解决的重要问题。首先，本文考察了各地区经济景气、价格变化的同步性与差异性。基于各地区有关指标如GDP增速、三次产业增速、CPI、RPI、PPI等数据，本文发现改革开放以来全国和各地区增速并不相同，明显呈东中西三级区域分布。各地区第二产业增速与全国的相关程度最高，第一产业和第三产业则次之。从价格层面来分析，无论是CPI、PPI还是其他价格指数，各地区与全国价格波动的相关程度明显高于有关经济指标的相关性水平，表明价格信号在国内统一市场的传播速度要比GDP增速、三次产业增速等实体变量迅速。紧接着，论文基于国际比较项目（ICP）购买力平价方法测算了我国各地区的价格水平差异，进而修正各地区名义经济增长数据，以此分析了剔除价格影响后的各地区经济发展真实差距。其次，本文考察了价格分配效应与收入流动性的区域差异。基于收入流动性的有关理论和方法，本文从各地区分行业平均工资的视角分析了我国1994年至2010年收入流动性的问题，研究发现我国居民收入流动性在逐渐下降，收入差距有固化倾向。东中西三大地带的收入流动性变化趋势与全国基本保持一致，但东部地区收入流动性明显低于中部和西部。之后，本文对影响收入流动性的有关因素进行了面板回归分析，发现由于经济发展模式的影响，经济增速和三次产业增速与收入流动之间呈负相关关系，固定资产投资增速与收入流动呈正相关关系，CPI增长则在一定程度上缩小了地区间和行业间的收入差距。再次，本文考察了价格波动分配效应与产业链分布的区际差异。本文通过对我国区际贸易规模的测度分析了区际贸易的变化特征，发现我国区际贸易的绝对数在逐步扩大，但各地区间贸易顺差和逆差的分布极度不均，顺差绝大多数多集中在东部，而中西部地区的区际贸易多为逆差。之后，本文应用我国省份间双边贸易的有关数据和区位商指标，研究了地区间的产业贸易关系，并对区域之间的价格传导效应进行了实证分析。随后，本文分析了开放经济条件下，人民币汇率波动对我国各地区产生的分配效应。本文结合各地区对外开放程度的差异，利用出口依存度、实际利用外资等经济变量分析了人民币汇率变动对不同地区经济增长的影响。考虑空间因素后的非参数局部线性回归GWR模型的实证结果表明，人民币汇率上升对不同地区经济增长具有不同程度的抑制效应，对东部地区作用最大，而中西部地区相对较小。因此，人民币汇率上升对我国总体经济增长有不利影响，但有利于调整我国各地区经济发展不平衡的现实。最后，本文基于以上研究内容的有关结论，考虑我国价格波动对各地区经济增长影响的不同表现，从理顺和改进价格的资源配置效应的视角，对统筹区域经济发展，促进我国各地区经济“又好又快”发展提出了一些有启示性的政策建议，并总结了全文的进一步研究方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 The price fluctuations will cause adjustments of relative benefits of different regions.The changes in the structure of relative prices may cause the flow of productionfactors, which will change the geographical distribution and industry distribution ofthe different industries. This will lead to change the relative income, to make someregions benefit more while some others benefit less. That is what so calleddistributional effects of price fluctuations. Due to the different constraints, thedistributional effect varies in different regions and in different historical periods. Theobvious imbalance of Chinese regional economic growth and non-synchronizationbetween the regions and the whole nation may cause different results of macro-controlpolicies of the central government. Therefore, this is an important issue that needs tobe solved in the analysis of macroeconomic performance.Firstly, this paper examines the synchronization of economic and pircefluctuations between every regions and the whole nation. Based on relevant indicators,such as growth rate of GDP, growth rate of the three industries, CPI, RPI, PPI etc.,we find that since the reform and opening up, the economic growth of the nationa andevery regions isn’t same, clearly exist the east,the middle and the west three zones.The growth rate of the secondary industry between regions and the country is the mostrelevant,conpared with primary industry and tertiary industry. When it comes to theprice, whether it is the CPI, PPI, or other price indices, the correlation is significantlyhigher than that of the economic indicators. It means the price signals spread fasterthan GDP growth and three industry growth and other same kinds of variables.Subsequently, based on purchasing power parity of the International ComparisonProgram (ICP) method, this paper calculates the price differences of the variousregions in China, and then fixes the name regional economic growth data, andanalyzes the real gap in all areas of economic development after discounting price.Secondly, this paper examines the regional differences of the price’s thedistributional effects and income mobility. Based on the theories and methods ofincome mobility, we analyzed income mobility in1994-2010by the average wage ofthe industry in every regions. The result shows that income mobility in China isgradually decreased. Income mobility of the three zones remained the same, but theeastern part of income mobility is significantly lower than the central and western.Subsequently, the income mobility panel regression analysis found that due to themode of economic development, economic growth, the growth of secondary andtertiary industries and fixed asset investment growth has a negative correlation withincome mobility, while CPI to some extent, narrowing the income gap betweenregions and between industries.Again, this paper examines the inter-district differences in the effects of pricefluctuations allocation and industrial chain distribution. Analysis of the variation ofinter-provincial trade through the measure of the scale of inter-provincial trade inChina, we found that the absolute number of inter-provincial trade in China isgradually expanding, but the distribution is extremely uneven across regions trade.The vast majority of multi-surplus concentrated in the eastern, while central and western regions have trade deficit. Subsequently, using the bilateral trade data andlocation quotient index, the paper studied the regional industry trade relations andregional effect of price transmission between.Subsequently, this paper analyzes the conditions of an open economy, the RMBexchange rate fluctuations on the distributional effects of the various region. Thepaper analyzed the impact of the RMB exchange rate changes on economic growth indifferent regions by using export dependence, the actual utilization of foreigninvestment and other economic variables. The GWR model shows that the RMBexchange rate will inhibit economic growth,but the eastern part will suffer more whilethe central and western regions are relatively small. Therefore, the RMB exchangerate has adverse impact on China’s overall economic growth, but it may be beneficialto adjust the imbalance of China’s regional economic development.Finally, based on the research conclusion, this paper give some pieces of advicefor promoting regional economic " good and fast "growth, and make summarizes forthe further research.更多还原