中国居民储蓄主要结构性问题研究

【作者】 唐军；

【导师】 王红领；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 西方经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 2008年全球金融危机的爆发暴露了大量危机背后的深层次问题。如何反思危机、发现危机背后的深层次问题就成为后危机时期的重要课题。在储蓄方面，西方发达国家与债务负担大量累积相联系的低储蓄率可能是问题的关键。与此同时，中国则以较高的足以支持大规模投资计划的较高储蓄率水平为国内外经济学界所关注。研究中国的储蓄特别是居民储蓄问题对于解答中国经济增长及其未来走向有着重要的意义。本文以生命周期储蓄（消费）理论模型的构造为基础，从人口结构、收入增长、通胀水平、利率变化以及资产价格变化等方面对中国居民储蓄（消费）有关的主要结构性问题进行了探讨。本文共分为九章。第一章为绪论，主要就本文的研究背景、研究意义以及主要内容和方法等进行了介绍。第二章为文献综述部分，该部分从生命周期理论发展的脉络着眼，对国内外有关文献和研究进行了详尽的分析和回顾，并得出了结构性问题研究将成为生命周期理论研究重要方向的结论。第三章主要以生命周期理论为指引，对中国居民储蓄（消费）数据进行了调整，调整的范围主要包括城镇住户调查、农村住户调查以及资金流量表三种统计。第四章为在回顾经典生命周期模型的基础上构建了一个更具一般性的生命周期模型，为第五章开始的按不同因素的理论和经验研究做了铺垫。第五章分析了人口结构变化对中国居民储蓄的影响，重点从主要年份中国人口结构的特点与储蓄率变化之间的关系，证实了生命周期理论关于人口结构影响总量储蓄率的结论。第六章探讨了经济增长率对中国居民储蓄的影响，通过将预期收入增长率纳入经典生命周期模型增强了模型的解释能力。第七章集中讨论了居民财富积累对中国居民储蓄的影响，以第四章构建的一般化模型为基础，重点从实物资产价格增长率和利率两个决定财富积累的重要指标的角度对其影响机制和重要程度进行了分析。第八章同样以第四章构建的一般化模型为基础，重点从通胀率影响中国居民储蓄的理论方面对其影响机制和作用渠道进行了探讨。第九章为全文的总结部分，对本文研究写作的得失进行了概括，并对未来的研究进行了展望。本文的研究以生命周期储蓄（消费）理论为根本的理论工具，在研究的基础性和系统性方面在国内已有中国居民储蓄问题研究中均较为突出。本文的创新之处主要体现在三个方面。第一，以生命周期理论为基础，本文对中国居民储蓄的调整问题进行了理论和实践两方面的工作。第二，本文在经典生命周期模型基础上构建了一个能将利率、实物资产价格、通胀率等因素均纳入其中的一般化生命周期模型，对生命周期理论的发展有所贡献。第三，本文在生命周期理论关于预期收入处理模式的基础上将预期收入增长率引入经典模型的分析，增强了模型对总量储蓄率变化的解释能力。在统计资料的缺陷等客观因素之外，本文的研究还存在缺乏住户样本层面研究、未能在模型中纳入遗赠因素、部分因素的研究仍存在完善空间等缺陷和不足，尚待在未来的研究中加以完善。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Global Financial Crisis broke out in2008and exposed a number ofproblems in the core level behind the crisis. Since then it has been a matter ofimportance to rethink the crisis and search for the real source of the crisis. In termsof saving, the low saving rate born simultaneously with higher burden of public andprivate debt might be the key. In the meantime, China is under the focus of nationaland foreign economists for its higher saving rate capable of supporting large-scaleinvestment budget. It is of great importance for the solution of the apparent puzzle toprovide answer to the economic growth and its trends in the future.This dissertation is built on the bulk theories of life cycle saving (orconsumption), and it extends the discussion of Chinese household saving (orconsumption) to broader structural factors including demographic structure, growthof income, inflation rate, interest rate, and prices of tangible assets.This dissertation consists of nine chapters. The first chapter serves as a prefacewhich introduces the background of the research, the utility of the research, and themajor content and methods. The second chapter is a survey of national and foreigntheses following the line of development of the Life Cycle Hypothesis (LCH) ofsaving, and draws to the conclusion that the structural problems may becomeimportance direction of future research. In the third chapter, under the guidance ofLCH, Chinese survey data of urban and rural households together with the data inthe Fund Flow Statement. The fourth chapter, by revisiting the classical LCH,constructs a LCH model of with relaxed constraints, thus provides reserves for thefactor-wise research of determinants of aggregated saving rate. In the fifth chapter,demographic structure as one of the determinants of aggregated saving rate isdiscussed, and the relationship between demographic structure and aggregatedsaving rate in major years has confirmed the justification of the positive conclusiondrawn by LCH. The sixth chapter discusses the impact of economic growth onChinese household saving by integrating the expected growth rate of income as atool in the model with the expectation of enhancing the explaining ability of theoriginal model. The seventh chapter discusses the impact of household wealthaccumulation on Chinese household saving on the basis of the generalized modelintroduced in the fourth chapter; with the two indictors, growth rate of prices oftangible assets and interest rate, are observed in terms of their importance andmechanism of influence. The eighth chapter also builds on the general model fromthe fourth chapter to explore the mechanism of influence and functional channels forthe impact of inflation rate on Chinese household saving. The ninth chapter serves asa conclusion of the whole dissertation, summarizes the gain and the loss of the paper,and offers an outlook for future research.This dissertation employs the LCH as its basic theoretical tool, and enjoys aposition of infrequent study among the writings and theses of domestic researchers.This dissertation has done three pieces of innovative work in total. Firstly, based onthe LCH, it has contributed both theoretically and practically in adjusting theChinese household saving data. Secondly, this dissertation constructs a generalizedLCH which integrated interest rate, prices of tangible assets and inflation rate intothe classical LCH model, thus contributes to the development of the LCH. Thirdly,this dissertation introduces the expected growth rate of income to the classical modeland enhances the explaining ability of the original model.Besides the objective shortcoming of statistical materials, this dissertation alsohas more work to do in the future with the lack of household sample level research,not capable of integrating the bequest factor into the model, and research of part ofthe factors with space of improvement.更多还原