【作者】 关华；

【导师】 赵黎明；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 在能源-经济-环境系统中,能源可持续是基础,环境可持续是条件,经济可持续是最终目的。协调可持续发展是以人为本的科学发展,它要求能源-经济-环境复合系统稳定和健康发展,整个系统的协调发展对于我国转变经济发展方式、实现整个社会的可持续发展具有重要意义。本文在协调可持续发展理论分析的基础上,综合运用定性和定量方法,重点研究了能源-经济-环境系统的系统结构、组成要素、系统功能、运行机制、因果关系模型和主要反馈回路等问题,力求为我国能源、经济、环境的协调可持续发展提供科学的理论依据和适用的操作方法。本文的主要创新之处在于以下三点:第一,构建了能源-经济-环境系统的总体框架。运用系统动力学方法,提出能源-经济-环境系统是在特定的生态、经济、社会、制度背景下,各种能源-经济-环境要素在一定空间上有机结合,进而形成的能源-经济-环境的复合系统。能源-经济-环境系统由经济驱动系统、能源支持系统、环境承载系统和社会发展系统、政策调控系统等五个子系统构成,各个子系统又包含若干要素,五大子系统相互耦合、相互制约。第二,建立了能源-经济-环境系统运行的仿真模型。运用Vensim PLE软件绘制了能源-经济-环境系统的系统结构模型图,构建了该系统的仿真模型,并对模型进行了模拟检验。本文进行的系统运行仿真分析为研究河北省能源-经济-环境系统协调可持续发展提供了行之有效的方法:探索了用定性与定量相结合的方法探寻能源-经济-环境系统运行机制的方法,通过观测能源-经济-环境系统运行的特征,找到系统中起主导作用的反馈回路和政策作用点,为河北省制定能源-经济-环境发展政策提供了依据。第三,确立了能源-经济-环境系统协调可持续发展的最佳方案。根据控制变量的确定原则,结合系统自然过程的模拟,选择了若干指标作为调控变量,通过调整常量及表函数取值,以“十一五”、“十二五”以及2016-2020年为时间区间设定四种情景进行政策模拟,确立了能源-经济-环境系统协调可持续发展的最佳方案,为政府制定相关政策提供决策参考,并对实现能源-经济-环境系统协调可持续发展提出切实可行的对策建议。本文的研究结果对我国现阶段能源-经济-环境系统协调可持续发展具有一定的实践指导意义,同时,本文的研究思路与方法对于其他社会经济问题的研究也具有一定的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the Energy-Economy-Environment system, sustainable energy is the foundation, sustainable environment is the condition, and the sustainable economy is the ultimate goal. Balanced, sustainable development is the People-Centric scientific development, which requires the compound system of Energy-Economy-Environment to develop steadily and healthily, the balanced development of the overall system is important to the transformation of our national economic development pattern and the realization of the whole society’s sustainable development . Based on the analysis of the theory of balanced ,sustainable development , this context comprehensively uses qualitative and quantitative methods,focusing on the research of mode about Energy-Economy-Environment system’s structure , components, functions, operating mechanism, the cause-effect relations and the main problems such as the feedback loop, making every effort to provide scientific theoretic foundation and applicable operation.The main innovation of this context lies in the following three aspects:First, it constructed a general framework of the Energy-Economy-Environment system. Using the method of systematic dynamics,it put forward that the system is a compound system generated under particular ecological, economic, social, systematic background and combined all kinds of energy, economic and environmental elements. This system is composed by five branch systems:economic-driven system, energy-support system, environment-bearing system, social-developing system, policy-control system, each system contains several components. The five systems couples and restrains mutually.Second, it set up simulated model of the operation of the Energy-Economy-Environment system.It drew the model picture of the structure of this system and constructed the simulated model. By using Vensim PLE software, meanwhile, it carried out a mock test. Using this model predicated and analysed the future development of Hebei province’s Energy-Economy-Environment system, it also gave related advices.This analysis provided practical method for the sustainable development of the Energy-Economy-Environment system in Hebei province. It found out the way of searching the operating mechanism of the Energy-Economy-Environment system through qualitative and quantitative method. Through observing the characteristic of the operation of this system, this analysis found the feedback loop which playing the main role and the policy functioning point, providing foundation for Hebei province in making Energy-Economy-Environment developing policy.Third, it established the best solution of realizing the Energy-Economy-Environment system’s sustainable development. According to the established principle of controlling variable, it combined with the natural process of the simulation system, choosing several index as the controlling-variables, selecting value through adjusting the constants and the table function. It established the best solution by setting four scences of these time period:the "eleventh five-year period","the twelfth five-year period" and time during 2016 to 2020, providing reference for the government when making policies, provide feasible suggestions to the realization of this Energy-Economy-Environment system’s balanced and sustainable development.The research discovery has a certain practical guiding meaning to our national Energy-Economy-Environment system’s balanced and sustainable development, meanwhile,the train and way of though of this context provide reference to the research of other social and economic problem.更多还原