【作者】 原继东；

【导师】 王树恩；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 本文运用现代企业成长理论、复杂科学理论和演化经济学理论的原理和方法,从我国出版企业系统成长的系统分析、成长动力与模式、成长机制等维度,来揭示我国出版企业系统成长的复杂性机理,并对我国出版企业系统成长进行了模拟仿真。首先,界定了出版、出版产业、出版企业等相关概念,从国内外有关出版企业成长的研究现状以及基于线性、非线性、复杂性科学的企业成长理论两个方面,对已有的研究成果进行整理与归纳,作为本文研究的理论基础。其次,系统分析了我国出版企业系统及其成长的概念。运用系统分析的方法描述了我国出版企业系统的系统环境、结构和行为,分析了我国出版企业系统的复杂性特征以及区别于一般企业系统的特征,构建了我国出版企业的复杂系统模型。定义了我国出版企业系统成长的概念并揭示其内涵,构建了我国出版企业系统成长的时间阶段模型,并从企业成长“量”“质”结合的角度建立了我国出版企业系统成长的表征指标体系。第三,对我国出版企业系统成长的动力问题和成长模式问题进行了剖析。考察了我国出版企业系统成长的动力系统构成,分析了成长动力作用的竞争与协同机制和创新机制。从构建我国出版企业系统成长的Logistic方程入手,分析了我国出版企业系统成长的分岔现象,提出了我国出版企业系统成长的路径选择方式和对应的成长模式选择。在此基础上,构建了基于复杂适应学习的出版企业系统螺旋式动态成长模型和基于惯例和规则的出版企业系统成长模型。第四,运用复杂性科学理论揭示我国出版企业系统的成长机制。论证了我国出版企业系统成长的复杂适应性学习机制,构建了复杂适应性学习能力景观模型;论证了我国出版企业系统成长涌现的协同机制、层次涌现模型和涌现路径的概念模型;并分别针对性提出了我国出版企业成长遵循复杂适应性学习机制和涌现机制应在管理上的变革与调整。第五,基于多主体系统建模与仿真方法,以复杂适应理论为基础,应用SWARM软件,构建了我国出版企业系统成长的仿真模型,根据实验结果提出了我国出版企业的成长路径选择策略。最后,选择一个出版企业──天津大学出版社做实证分析,验证及完善了理论研究成果。更多还原

【Abstract】 The dissertation uses the methods and principles of modern enterprise growth theory, complexity science and evolutionary economics to reveal the complexity growth mechanism of our country’s publishing enterprise system from the dimensions of system analysis, growth motive force, growth mode and growth mechanism, and researches on the modeling and simulation of growth of our country’s publishing enterprise system.Firstly, the dissertation defines publish, publishing industry and publishing enterprise, classifies and sums up the research results from two aspects, one of which is about the research status growth of publishing enterprise at home and abroad and another of which is about enterprise growth theories based on linear science, nonlinear science and complexity science. All the works are the dissertation’s theoretical basis.Secondly, the dissertation analyzes the system of our country’s publishing enterprise and the definition of our country’s publishing enterprise system growth systematically. Using the method of system analysis, it describes the system environment, system construction and system behavior of our country’s publishing enterprise system, analyzes the complexity characteristics and the special characteristics differing from the normal enterprise system of our country’s publishing enterprise system, and constructs the complexity system model of our country’s publishing enterprise. It defines and reveals our country’s publishing enterprise system growth, constructs the time phase model of our country’s publishing enterprise system growth, and builds the representation index system of our country’s publishing enterprise system growth from the angle of combination of quantity and quality.Thirdly, the dissertation illuminates the motive force problem and the growth mode problem of our country’s publishing enterprise system. It investigates the constitution of our country’s publishing enterprise motive force system and analyzes competition and collaboration mechanism and innovative mechanism that can make the motive forces work. Started with constructing the LOGISTIC equation of our country’s publishing enterprise system growth, it analyzes the bifurcation at the process of growth of our country’s publishing enterprise system and proposes the ways to select growth path and the correspondence selections of growth mode for our country’s publishing enterprise system. On that basis, it constructs the spiral dynamical growth mode of publishing enterprise system based on complex adaptive learning and the growth mode of publishing enterprise system based on routine and regulation.Fourthly, using complexity science, the dissertation declares the growth mechanism of our country’s publishing enterprise system. It demonstrates the complex adaptive learning mechanism and constructs the complex adaptive learning ability landscape mode of our country’s publishing enterprise system growth, and then proposes some pointed management revolution ways and adjustment ways that follow the complex adaptive learning mechanism. It demonstrates the cooperation mechanism, the level emerge mode and the emerge path conceptual mode of growth emerge of our country’s publishing enterprise system and also proposes some pointed management revolution ways and adjustment ways that follow those emerge mechanism.Fifthly, based on multi-agent modeling and simulation methods and complex adaptive system theory, using the SWARM software, the dissertation constructs the simulation mode and proposes the path selecting strategy of our country’s publishing enterprise system growth.Finally, the dissertation selects Tianjin university press as positive analysis, verifies and perfects the theoretical research results.更多还原