【作者】 李升；

【导师】 张社荣；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 水工结构工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 我国建坝数量达8.6万余座,病险水库达40%左右,1982~2000年年均溃坝率为2.782×10-4,高于世界平均水平(1.92×10-4),可见传统大坝安全管理模式在管理大坝安全方面还有待改善;随着下游居民增多、社会经济快速发展,大坝安全不仅包括工程安全,更应关注下游公共安全,所以风险管理模式是我国社会发展的必然。因此本文研究大坝安全风险管理理念及其关键技术,并将整套体系系统化,开发了一套大坝安全风险管理系统,有很好的理论价值和实践意义。首先对大坝安全风险管理理论体系进行了研究,确定了管理对象,建立了管理框架及流程,全面总结了研究方法,并建立了全生命周期风险管理模型,初步探索我国大坝安全风险管理模式,提出总体战略,并就如何实现现代大坝安全管理模式提出了六条建议。对我国大坝安全管理体系的完善有着很好的参考价值。基于风险管理理念,主要对下游公共安全的管理过程(溃坝洪水分析、溃坝风险评估、应急疏散)进行技术研究。考虑水库调蓄作用,建立侵蚀模型模拟溃口发展过程;基于双扫描耦合方法建立一、二维耦合数学模型模拟洪水演进过程,最后利用自主开发程序和粒子技术实现溃口洪水可视化,利用自主开发的GIS系统实现溃坝洪水演进的可视化。基于支持向量机(SVM)理论,考虑影响溃坝生命损失的13个因素,建立了改进SVM模型,其精度优于考虑5个因素的SVM模型和改进Graham法;总结了大坝风险标准、溃坝概率分析、经济损失估计以及社会环境评价的实用方法;并利用二次开发技术实现了基于GIS的溃坝损失评估全过程分析及其可视化。考虑山区洪灾特性,提出了山区洪灾避难场所选取方法,基于风险理念进行居民撤离顺序评价,考虑是否与源点直接相连提出了路线权重的分情况计算方法,并建立了山区洪灾疏散速度模型;考虑居民撤离顺序和避难场所容量,对Dijkstra算法进行了改进,并基于GIS研究了山区洪灾应急疏散过程的实现和可视化。对两河口土心墙堆石坝最大可能洪水下四分之一逐渐溃情况进行了风险分析、评价和处理。分析结果为生命损失可容忍,经济损失不可容忍,社会与环境影响可容忍。河口镇居民可在1.14小时内安全疏散到避难场所。以高级编程语言Delphi为开发工具,结合数据库管理、地理信息系统、图形图像处理、虚拟现实、专家系统、二次开发等技术,引进各种先进算法,开发了大坝安全风险管理系统,可视化、系统化、数字化地实现了大坝安全全过程风险管理,为相关人员提供了方便、快捷、高效的工作和信息交流平台,为今后管理工作提供一种新模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are about 86000 dams in China,40% of which are sick and dangerous.The average leak rate is 2.784×10-4 from 1982 to 2000 in China,which is higher than the world average level (1.92×10-4),So the traditional management mode has much time to improve;Along with the more people and the rapid developments downstream,what we need to care is not just the engineering safety,but also the public safety,so the risk management mode is necessary to China.The paper researched the idea,the main techniques and the system of dam safety risk management which has great theory value and practical significance.The paper researched the system info of dam safety risk management,which contains the objects,the frame and the process,the methods and the model of life cycle risk management.The article also desked study the mode of dam safety risk management in China,and came up with the total strategy and six suggestments to realize the mode.Based on the modern mode, the paper paid close attention to the processes of public safety downsteam which includes the dambreak flood analysis,the risk evaluation and the emergency evacuation.Considering the reservoir regulation function, erosion model was established to simulate the burst development process. Based on double scanning coupling method , a one-dimensional and two-dimensional coupling mathematics model was established to simulate the flood evolution process. At the last, own system and particle technique are used to display the burst development process visually,and GIS is used to display the floods evolution process visually.Based on support vector machine (SVM) theory, considering 13 factors which affect loss of life, the improvement SVM model was established which was superior to the SVM model considering five factors and improved method of Graham; The dam risk standard, probability analysis, calculation of economic loss and social environment evaluation method were summarized;At the last, second development technology was used to achieve the whole process of loss estimation in GIS system.Considering mountain flood characteristics, the method for selecting mountain flood shelter was put forward; Based on risk concept, residents evacuated sequence were evaluated; Considering whether directly connected with the point of origin,the route weight calculation method were proposed , and a mountainous area flood evacuation speed model was established; Considering residents evacuated sequence and shelter capacity,Dijkstra algorithm was improved, and the mountain flood emergency evacuation process was implemented and visualized based on GIS. the article analysed ,evaluated and treated the risk of LiangHeKou soil core wall rockfill dam in quarter gradually collapse situation of the largest possible flooding.The loss of life can tolerate, economic loss is intolerable, social and environmental impacts can tolerate. It is need 1.14 hours for residents in HeKouZhen to evacuate to shelters.With a high-level programming language Delphi as a development tool, combining database management, geography information system, image processing, virtual reality, expert system and second development techniques, with introduction of advanced algorithms, the article realized the whole dam safety risk management visually systemically and digitally,which can provide a convenient, quick and efficient work and information exchange platform for related personnel,and suggest a new management mode for future.更多还原