【作者】 田玉国；

【导师】 周志刚；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 “十一五”期间,我国道路交通管理工作取得了显著成效,在机动车保有量急剧增长、道路通车里程逐年攀升的情况下,道路交通事故有了明显下降,城市道路交通管理规划也越来越被重视和加强。在取得这些成绩的同时,我国城市道路交通管理规划在编制和实施中也面临着诸多问题。如何在借鉴国外先进管理理念和成功经验的基础上,进一步完善我国城市道路交通管理规划,力求通过规划来指导城市道路交通管理走向现代化和科学化,通过规划来提高城市道路交通管理水平,从而有效预防和减少道路交通事故,缓解道路交通拥堵,成了当下需要解决的重要问题之一。本文从国内外相关研究领域入手,在借鉴发达国家道路交通管理规划与道路交通事故预防成功经验的基础上,构建了基于道路交通事故预防的城市道路交通管理规划体系框架,辅以主成分分析法和重力模型分析法进行数据分析论证,并选取山东省青岛市为例进行个案剖析与实证研究。其中的研究重点主要体现三个方面:第一,从管理的角度,构建了基于道路交通事故预防的城市道路交通管理规划体系框架。包括:城市道路交通管理规划的总体设计,城市交通调查及交通信息数据库的建立,城市交通系统现状分析及问题诊断,城市交通系统交通需求预测,城市道路交通管理规划的方案制定,城市道路交通管理规划方案的评价,城市道路交通管理规划的调整与滚动,城市道路交通管理规划的主体内容与相互关系。第二,将中美道路交通事故数据进行了比较分析,进而从道路交通事故预防的角度总结了美国城市道路交通管理规划的成功经验,分析了我国城市道路交通管理规划的现状和问题,在此基础上提出了我国基于道路交通事故预防的加强城市道路交通管理规划工作的对策。第三,运用主成分分析法和重力模型分析法等数学模型,对城市道路交通管理规划中涉及到的数据进行分析论证。以青岛市为例,对城市交通管理规划建设体系进行了实证分析,构建城市道路交通管理规划体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 There have significant results in road traffic management during Eleventh Five-Year period in China. Traffic accidents have reduced significantly, the number of vehicles has grown steadily, the mileage of highway is increased each year and urban road traffic management plan has been strengthened and given more and more attentions. While, people faced many problems in urban traffic management planning (UTMP). How to improve the plan and management of urban traffic in our countrybecame an important issue immediate need to address based on learning from foreign advanced management, which might to guide the modernization and scientific of urban traffic management, improve the level of urban road traffic, provent and reduce road traffic accidences and ease traffic congestion efficiently Start from the domestic and foreign research, the dissertation proposed the framework of UTMP system, which is based on learning from the traffic management planning and the experiences of accident prevention in developed countries, supported by the principal component analysis and the gravity model of the data analysis method, and took Qingdao city as an empirical analysis case. One of the research focus is mainly reflected in three aspects:First, building the system framework of UTMP, including: the overall design of UTMP, the creation of the database which stores the data of urban traffic surveys or the traffic information, urban transport system analysis and problem diagnosis, the traffic demand forecasting in urban transport system, the establishments and evaluations of UTMP projects, the adjustment and rolling of UTMP, the constituent elements and their mutual relations in UTMP system.Second, introducing the experiences of the road traffic accident prevention in United States after comparing the data of the urban road traffic between China and United States. Analysis of the status of the traffic management plan in China, pointing out problems, and proposing countermeasures of UTMP base on road traffic accident provention.Third, Empirical analysis of UTMP by principal component analysis and the gravity model analysis. In the case of Qingdao City, the dissertation discussed her UTMP projects comprehensively and did some empirical analysis on her UTMP system with the methods above.更多还原