【作者】 陈俊良；

【导师】 沙基昌；

【作者基本信息】 国防科学技术大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 战争设计工程是一种对未来战争复杂系统进行分析与设计的工程化方法。战争设计工程的基本思路是综合集成各领域专家的智慧,采用定性与定量相结合的方法,对未来信息化战争的干预策略进行设计,为未来可能发生的战争提出装备与战法建设的决策建议。专家群体研讨是战争设计工程的重要组成部分,是实现专家群体智慧集成的重要方式。战争设计问题的解决主要采用专家集体研讨的方式,发挥人的创造性对干预策略进行设计。专家群体研讨贯穿了战争设计工程整个流程,从战争设计问题与目标的确定,到干预策略的设计等各个阶段都需要专家群体的协作研讨。因此,专家群体研讨是战争设计工程理论与方法研究的一个重要内容。国内外学者对专家群体研讨展开了许多研究,但是某些方面的问题还需进行深入研究,例如如何设计研讨过程、专家群体如何在研讨中达成共识等。本文在相关研究成果的基础上,针对战争设计工程专家群体研讨的实际需求,结合战争设计的工程化特点,对战争设计工程专家群体研讨的组织与共识达成方法以及研讨信息的组织与分析展开研究。本文的研究不仅丰富了战争设计工程的基础理论,而且使得战争设计专家群体研讨更具操作性,有助于提高研讨的质量和效率,对于推动战争设计工程理论和方法的发展具有重要理论意义和实际价值。本文的主要贡献与创新如下:首先,分析了战争设计工程专家群体研讨的概念和基本要素。在介绍战争设计工程基础理论的基础上,阐述了战争设计工程专家群体研讨的概念,给出了战争设计工程专家群体研讨的整体框架,论述了战争设计工程中专家群体研讨的基本要素,包括研讨主体、研讨对象、研讨的组织等,分析了系统工程师在战争设计工程专家群体研讨中的协助任务。其次,提出了基于ThinkLet的战争设计规范研讨过程设计方法,并给出了面向战争设计工程专家研讨的ThinkLet。基于ThinkLet的研讨过程设计方法利用ThinkLet的概念将群体研讨交互方式、研讨行为规范和主持人的协助任务进行规范描述,将其作为规范研讨过程的基本构建模块。该方法是一种自上而下的模块化设计方法,首先根据研讨目标设计研讨活动序列,然后确定完成每个研讨活动的群体协作模式,最后根据协作模式选择合适的ThinkLet。ThinkLet序列构成了规范研讨过程。设计适合战争设计工程专家群体研讨的ThinkLet是该方法的基础。为此,分析了研讨过程中不良群体思维及其应对措施和群体研讨的有效互动形式,并结合战争设计工程专家群体研讨的特殊需求,给出了面向战争设计工程专家群体研讨的ThinkLet。在此基础上,利用提出的方法设计了战争设计工程中问题约束研讨和干预策略研讨的规范研讨过程。第三,研究了基于语义关系的研讨信息组织模型及其分析技术。阐述了基于语义关系的研讨信息组织的基本思路、主要作用、应用方式和适用范围。基于语义关系的研讨信息组织模型是根据发言间的语义关系将研讨发言进行组织,其关键在于研讨发言的分类以及发言间语义关系的分析与定义。本文在分析研讨对话发言分类相关理论的基础上,结合战争设计工程中专家研讨发言的行为特征,定义了研讨发言类型和发言间的语义关系,给出了研讨信息组织模型的基本结构及其数学表示。本文提出的研讨信息组织模型是由提问发言节点、陈述发言节点和论证发言节点构成的研讨网络。在此基础上,研究了基于语义关系的研讨信息的分析与评价技术,包括关注程度评价、研讨充分程度评价、发言意见归类分析和研讨共识度评价。第四,提出了基于辩论的共识达成方法。针对战争设计工程中专家群体共识达成的特点,提出了基于辩论的共识达成方法。基于辩论的共识达成方法是面向过程的方法,方法的基本步骤包括:1)意见分歧点的识别,2)引导专家群体针对意见分歧点展开辩论,3)确定分歧的观点、主张或意见是否被群体所接受,4)判断群体是否达成共识。针对方法的第二步和第三步,研究了群体辩论的形式描述模型,提出了一种扩展双极辩论框架,给出了可接受论证集的确定方法和判定分歧观点是否被群体接受的基本规则。第五,案例研究。以获取制空权的战争设计为例,展示本文所给出的战争设计工程专家群体研讨的组织与共识达成方法以及研讨信息组织模型在战争设计工程中的具体应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 War Design Engineering (WDE) is an engineering-method for analyzing anddesigning the future war complex system. The basic idea of WDE is to design thestrategies for future information war by integrating the wisdom of domain experts andutilizing combination quantitative and qualitative method, in order to propose thedevelopment advce of equipment and tactics for the war that be likely to happen in thefuture. Expert group discussion is the importance part of WDE, and is the importantorganizational form of expert wisdom synthesis. It is used to take up the expert groupdiscussiontosolvethewardesignproblemandtoinspireexpertscreativitytodesignthestrategies. The expert group discussion fills up the whole flow of WDE. Each stage oftheprocessofWDE,fromthestageofspecificationofwardesignquestionsandobjectstothedesignofstrategies ofequipment and tactics,needs the collaborational discussionof domain experts. So, the expert group discussion is an important research content ofthetheoriesandmethodsofWDE.The scholars have done many researches about the expert group discussion. Butsome aspects of it need deep research, such as how to design the discussion process,how the expert group to reach consensus in the disucussion and etc. On the basis ofrelative research fruits, and aiming at the demand of expert discussion in WDE, andwiththeengineeringcharacteristicofwardesign, theorginazationmethodofdiscussion,the consensus reaching method and the structureing and analyisis of discussioninformation were researched in this paper. To research the above issues ont only enrichthe fundamental theory of WDE, but also enable the organizer or facilitator to organizeand manipulate discussion more easily. And it benefits the improvement of discussionquality and efficiency. The research has the theory signification and realistic value forpomotingthedevelopmentoftheoryandmethodofWDE.Themaincontributionandinnovationofthispaperareasfollows:Firstly, the concept and basic elements of expert group discussion in WDE wereanalyzed.OnthebasisofintroductionofthebasictheoryofWDE,theconceptofexpertgroupdiscussioninWDEwas addressed, andthe frameworkof expert groupdiscussionin WDE was given. After that, the fundamental elements of expert group discussion inWDE were addressed, including the subject of discussion, the object of discussion andtheorginizatoinofdiscussion,etc.ThefacilitationtasksofsystemengineerintheexpertgroupdiscussioninWDEwereanalyzed.Secondly, the formal discussion process design method for WDE based onThinkLet was proposed, and the ThinkLets for the expert group discussion in WDEwere given. The proposed method utilizes the concept of ThinkLet to formally discribethe goup discussion interaction form, discussion behavior criterion and the facilitation task of facilitator as the basic construction block of formal discussion process. Theformal discussion process design method based on ThinkLet is a block-based designmethod from up to bottom which at first to design the sequence of discussion actionaccording to discussion object, and then to determine the group collaboration mode foreach discussion action and select proper ThinkLet according to the collaboration mode.The sequence of ThinkLets make up of the formal discussion process. The basis of thismethod is to design the proper ThinkLets for expert group discussion in WDE. For thispurpose, the think mode emerging in the group discussion and the effect interactivemodel of multi-realm expert were analyzed. On this basis, and with the specialrequirement of expert group discussion in WDE, the ThinkLets for expert gourpdiscussion in WDE were given. By using the proposed method and ThinkLets, theformal process of the discussion of war design question and the discussion of strategiesofequipmentandtacticsweredesigned.Thirdly, the discussion information structuring model based on semantics relationand its analysis technique were researched. The basic theory issues of discussioninformation structuring mode based on semantics relation were addressed, includingbasic idea, main function and application scope. The discussion information structuringmodel based on semantics relation structures the discussion utterances based on thesematic relation between the utterances. On the basis of analyzingthe relative theoryofdialog utterance classification and the characteristic of speak action in the discussion ofWDE, the utterance types and semantics relations between them were defined in thispaper. And upon this work, the basic structure and mathematical representation ofdiscussion information structuring model were given. The discussion informationstructuring model proposed in this paper is a discussion network consisting of questionnode, statement node and argument node. On this basis, the analysis and evaluationtechniqueofdiscussioninformationbasedonsemanticsrelationisresearched,includingthe evaluation of focus degree, the evaluation of discussion enough degree, the analysisofopnionclassificationandtheevaluationofconsensusdegree.Fourthly, the consensus reaching method based on argumentation was proposed,according to the characteristic of group consensus reaching in WDE. The consensusreaching method based on argumentation is a process-oriented method, which consistsof four steps, that is: 1) recongnization of opnion difference; 2) guid expert group toargue the opnion difference; 3) determine whether the view, claim or opnion acceptedby the expert groups; 4) judge whether the expert group reaching consensus. Aiming atthe step two and three, the formalization model group argumentation was researched,and a extened bipolar argumentation framework was proposed. The determinationmethod of accepted argument set was given. On this basis, the basic rule to determinetheopnionwhetheracceptedbygroupwasgiven.Fifthly, a case was studied. The case of obtaining the air control right is analyzed todemonstrate heapp lication of the organization and theconsensusrea chingme thodinWDE and discussion in for mationstructuring model for WDE porposed in thepaper.更多还原