【作者】 朱映凤；

【导师】 傅强；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 本文主要研究了中国通货膨胀对宏观经济的门限效应和主要影响因素。其中门限效应包括三个方面:通货膨胀对经济增长的门限效应、对金融发展的门限效应以及对金融发展和经济增长之间关系的门限效应。通货膨胀对宏观经济的门限效应意味着,当通货膨胀超出门限水平就会对宏观经济造成显著的负面影响,又结合中国的物价走势,识别影响通货膨胀门限效应的主要因素对于通货膨胀的有效治理具有重要作用。以上问题的研究对于中央银行制定并实施有针对性的货币政策具有重要的应用价值。本论文主要包括以下有特色的研究工作:(1)以通货膨胀在何种水平下将对经济增长产生负面影响的通货膨胀门限值为研究对象,通过建立门限回归模型,估计了1978年至2009年中国通货膨胀对经济增长的最优门限水平。结果表明:通货膨胀对经济增长的最优门限值为5%,当通货膨胀超过5%时,会对经济增长带来显著的负面影响。研究结果不仅为中央银行实施货币政策提供了一个明确的数字目标:保持通货膨胀在5%以下,还拓展了通货膨胀目标制在我国实施的讨论,在技术层面完善了通货膨胀目标量化和预测的可操作性,为中国通货膨胀目标制的实施提供重要支持。(2)通过构建通货膨胀对金融发展的门限回归模型,估计了1978年至2010年中国通货膨胀对金融发展的最优门限水平。实证结果表明:根据所选金融发展指标的不同,1978年至2010年中国通货膨胀对金融发展的最优门限值为3%或5%,当通货膨胀超过5%时,金融发展受到全面抑制。研究结论不仅再一次强调了中国的货币政策目标:保持通货膨胀在5%以下,还证实了金融系统是非常重要的通货膨胀非线性影响经济增长的渠道。(3)以通货膨胀对金融发展和通货膨胀对经济增长的最优门限值为标准将1996年第1季度至2011年第1季度的样本划分为高通货膨胀和低通货膨胀两类,检验了金融发展和经济增长之间的关系是否会随着通货膨胀的高低而有所不同。结果表明:在低通货膨胀环境下,金融发展对经济增长有显著的促进作用,而在高通货膨胀环境下,金融发展的经济增长效应不显著,这就促使政府部门在研究有关金融发展政策时要充分考虑当时的通货膨胀水平。金融发展和经济增长在不同通货膨胀背景下表现出的非线性关系再一次证实了稳定物价、抑制通胀的重要性。(4)通过构建包括过剩流动性、需求拉动、成本推动以及国外通胀传递四类因素的通货膨胀动态模型,判断出各因素影响通货膨胀的相对重要程度,在实证判断的基础上,对现实经济中通货膨胀的形成机制进行逻辑上的因果关系阐述。结果表明:中国通货膨胀的主要影响因素为流动性过剩,需求拉动次之,成本推动排第三,国外通胀传递对通货膨胀的影响最小。究其根源,现有汇率体制下央行由于巨额外汇储备而向市场投放过量货币的货币被动超发以及信贷扩张是造成流动性过剩的主要原因。过度需求一方面来源于净出口扩大形成巨额外汇储备,而留在国内的庞大的纯购买力;另一方面,样本期间相对宽松的宏观经济环境推动总需求扩张。过剩流动性和过度需求相互影响,过度需求以市场上充裕的货币供应和宽松的宏观政策环境为条件,两者相互作用,共同推动物价上涨。更多还原

【Abstract】 The thesis mainly researches the threshold effect of inflation on macro-economy and the main influencing factors of inflation in China. Among the threshold effect, there are three aspects including threshold effect of inflation on economic growth, threshold effect of inflation on financial development and threshold effect of inflation on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. Threshold effect of inflation on macro-economy means when inflation exceeds threshold level, it will obviously exert negative impact on it. Combining it with Chinese price trend, identifing the main factors of influencing threshold level of inflation is very important for efficiently managing inflation. Researching the problems above has very important application value for central bank working out and implementing well targeted monetary policy.It mainly includes the following distinctive research work and conclusions.Firstly, regarding threshold level of inflation above which inflation will exert negative impact on economic growth as research subject, it estimates the threshold level of inflation in China from 1978 to 2009 using the threshold regression model. The result suggests that the optimal threshold level of inflation on economic growth in China is 5 percent. When inflation exceeds 5 percent, it will obviously exert negative impact on economic growth. The result not only supplies a specific digital target that keeping inflation below 5 percent for China’s central bank to implement monetary policy, but also helps to expand the discussion of implementation of inflation targeting in China, improves the operation of inflation target quantization and forcast, and provides important support for implementation of inflation targeting in China.Secondly, by building an threshold regression model, it estimates the threshold level of inflation on financial development in China from 1978 to 2010. Empirical evidence shows that the optimal threshold level of inflation on financial development is 3 percent or 5 percent depending on different financial development indices. When inflation exceeds 5 percent, financial development will be all-around depressed. This conclusion not only highlights Chinese monetary policy target which is keeping inflation below 5 percent, but also verifies financial development is an very important channel through which inflation affects growth in a nonlinear fashion.Thirdly, with threshold of inflation on financial development and threshold of inflation on economic growth as standards, it divides the sample from the first quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 2011 into high inflation and low inflation and investigates whether the relationship between financial development and economic growth varies according to inflation. Empirical evidence shows that on condition of low inflation, financial development exerts a significant positive effect on economic growth, while on conditon of high inflation, the growth effect of financial development appears to be insignificant. The conclusion can urge government department consider the level of inflation when they investigate relevant financial development policy. The nonlinear relationship between financial development and economic growth under different inflation circumstances verifies the importance of price stabilization once more.Finally, by developing an inflation dynamic model containing excess liquidity, excess-demand, cost-push and foreign inflation delivery, we verdict the factor’s relative importance on inflation. And on the basis of empirical results we articulate the logical causality of the inflation formation mechanism in real economy. Empirical evidence shows that among the four factors of inflation, excess liquidity has the most important effect, followed by excess-demand, and the cost-push, and the foreign inflation delivery has the least effect. Trace to its source, the main reason for excess liquidity are central bank’s passive money supply in order to hedge great foreign exchange under the existing exchange rate system and credit expansion. Excess demand comes from the following two aspects, on one hand, net exports expanding formulats a huge foreign reserve and stays pure purchasing power in demostic, on the other hand, the relatively loose macroeconomic environment to promote demand expansion. In a word, Excess liquidity and excess demand act or react on each other, excess demand is on condition of excess money supply in the market and loose macroscopic policy environment. They interact and push up prices.更多还原