【作者】 黄凌；

【导师】 钟登华；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工程管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 我国大坝数量众多，其中，病险水库大约占40％。溃坝是一种高危害的社会致灾因素，大坝溃决后将会对下游社会和环境带来灾难性的影响。基于三维洪水演进数值模拟的溃坝损失评价与对策研究，为水库大坝的安全运行管理，制定防洪直急预案具有重大意义。通过溃坝三维洪水数值模拟，提取了溃坝损失评价与对策研究的关键水情信息，进行了溃坝经济损失、生命损失、社会及环境影响分忻，选取了溃坝洪水避难方案，并实现了溃口洪水演进可视化分忻。主要获得如下研究成果如下：(1)建立了耦合vOF法的七F紊流三维溃坝洪水演进数学模型。针对溃坝突发性强，水流量大等特点，运用耦合vOF法的K-e紊流三维溃坝洪水演进数学模型，模拟了溃坝洪水向下游演进的过程，实现了溃坝洪水水面线的动态追踪。通过建立研究区域的数字地形模型，在三维溃坝洪水演进模拟基础上，实现了溃口洪水演进的三维可视化分忻，为溃坝损失评价与避难迁安对策研究提供了理论依据。(2)构建了基于洪水演进三维数值模拟的溃坝损失评价模型。结合洪水演进三维数值模拟获取的关键水情信息，分忻了溃坝导致的经济损失、生命损失、社会及环境影响，克服了传统溃坝损失评价中关键参数依靠经验公式确定的弊端；其中，下游研究区域中的生命损失采用采用Dekay&Mcclellfdl]d法、改进Qallfdlll法和几工神经网络模型计算，通过比较，改进Qallfdlll法为符合实际的方法；同时，采用一维水质模型，分忻了溃坝洪水对下游河道水质的影响。(3)探讨了溃坝洪灾避难迁安对策分忻方法。基于耦合vOF法的三维溃坝洪水演进数值模拟结果，采用“点线结合型”洪灾避难分忻思想，结合路权计算模型和Dijkstra算法，对大坝下游影响区域的避难方案进行了分忻，制定了洪灾避难迁安路径，并提出了溃坝洪水防灾减灾对策。(4)实例研究。以深圳市公明水库溃坝损失评价与对策研究为例，研究了公明水库三维溃坝洪水演进过程；探讨了溃坝损失，包括经济损失、生命损失、社会及环境影响；选取了公明水库下游避难迁安路线，并分忻了相直的溃坝洪水管理措施，为水库大坝的安全运行管理，防洪直急预案的制定等提供了理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are a large number of dams in China,and about forty percent of the totaldams face serious safety problems．Dam break is a serious social disaster,whichcaused a great deal of damage to the society and environment．The study ofdam—break loss evaluation and countermeasure based on 3D flood propagatingnumerical simulation has great significance for the safety operation management ofdam and flood control forecasting．On the basis of the 3D simulation results ofdam—break flood propagating，the key parameters of dam—break flood are obtained．And then the dam-break loss is analyzed，which contains the economic loss，loss oflife，as well as social and environmental impact．The evacuation countermeasure isproposed，and the visualization of dam breach flood propagating is realized．The mainachievements ofthis thesis are listed as following：(1)A 3D k-E turbulence model coupled with the Volume of Fluid(VOF)methodfor the dam—break flood propagating is established．On the basis of the dam—breakcharacters such as strong abruptness and large water flow,the flood propagating issimulated using the 3D k-E turbulence model coupled with the Volume of Fluid《VOF)method,and the dynamic tracing of flood water surface profile is realized．Thedigital elevation model《DEM)of the study area is developed．According to thesimulation results of dam-break flood．and the visualization of dam breach floodpropagating is achieved．The study on dam—break flood propagating provids thetheoretical basis for dam-break loss evaluation and flood evacuation countermeasurestudy．(2) An evaluation model for dam—break loss based on 3D simulation results isproposed．Based on the key characters of flood propagating obtained from the damfailure flood simulation results，the economic loss，loss of life，social andenvironmental impact are analyzed，which improved the empirical method for thedam—break loss evaluation．The loss of life is calculated by Dekay&McClellandmethod,improved Graham method,mad artificial neural network model．Theimproved Graham method is considered as the optimal method for loss of lifeevaluation according to compare the results of three methods．The one—dimensionalwater quality model is set up to evaluate the water quality of the downstream ofreservoir．(3) The method for the dam-break flood evacuation countermeasure is analyzed． Based on the dam—break flood propagating simulation resuRs，the idea of flooddisaster amalysis based on“point—line combination”is adopted．and the evacuationscheme is studied using the road right model and Dijkstra algorithm．The escapingroutes and the flood disaster prevention and reduction countermeasures are proposed．(4)The Gongming Reservior of Shenzhen is taken as a case study．The floodpropagating of dam—break is simulated．The dam-break loss is analyzed whichcontains the economic loss，loss of life，social and environmental impa~．Theescaping route is obtained，and the management measures of dam—break flood areproposed．The study provids the theoretical basis for the safety operation managementof reservoir dam and emergency plan of flood contr01．更多还原