【作者】 徐瑾；

【导师】 赵涛；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 水资源是人类赖以生存的不可替代的物质基础,是城市社会经济发展的重要保障。然而随着城市规模的不断扩大,水资源短缺问题日趋严重,水环境质量的恶化制约了城市的发展和人民生活水平的提高。应以可持续发展的战略高度对城市水循环系统进行科学的建设,合理配置各种水资源,并采用适宜的评价方法对城市水资源可持续利用系统进行定量分析和评价。本文以城市水循环系统为研究对象,探讨了在可持续发展理论原则下的城市水循环系统发展规划与评价体系研究的若干问题。在系统分析城市水资源需求结构与变化特点的基础上,科学的预测城市需水量,运用价值工程理论制定了城市水循环系统的可持续发展性的评价指标体系,构建了城市水循环系统的不确定规划模型。本文针对城市的用水结构特点和影响因素,提出了对城市需水量进行预测的综合性方法。采用规范指标法、季节指数平滑法以及PSO-BP算法等方法对城市的综合生活需水量进行预测,采用万元产值耗水量指标法和单位用地耗水量法等对工业需水量进行预测,并对各种预测方法进行了对比分析,为进行城市水循环系统规划提供了依据。本文构建了的城市水循环系统可持续发展性评价指标体系。基于价值工程理论,将城市水循环系统可持续发展水平(价值)分为功能和成本两部分,针对城市水循环系统发展的各个环节,构建了相应的评价指标,并采用FANP分析方法分析了城市水循环系统的运行结构特点以及相互影响关系。本文基于城市需水量的随机变化特性,构建了城市水循环系统的不确定规划模型。依据可持续发展原理的规划原则,在规划模型中综合考虑的经济、社会与环境的协调性,构建了多目标规划模型。采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟模型中的不确定变量,并将其嵌入改进的非支配排序遗传算法,对模型进行求解。本文以华北某沿海城市的水循环系统为实例案例,综合运用相关的理论知识与研究成果,对该规划城市的水循环系统进行了可持续发展性评价,并通过构建与求解规划模型,为该城市的水循环系统的科学建设提供有效的决策支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resource is the irreplaceable material basis for human being and important supply for the economic development of cities. However, with the continuous expansion of size of city, water shortage becomes a more and more serious problem. The deterioration of water quality becomes the limit for urban development and the improvement of living standards of the people. The water cycle system should be built with the sustainable development strategy. The water resource from different sources should be distributed rationally and the sustainable development of the water cycle system should be evaluated with suitable methods.Taking city water cycle system as the research target, the issues of its development planning and evaluation index system were discussed with the sustainable development strategy in this paper. With the systematic analysis of urban water demand structure and the characteristics of its changes, the urban water demand was forecasted. The evaluation index system of city water cycle system was developed with the theory of value engineering and the uncertain programming model was build for the sustainable development.An integrated method for forecasting the urban water demands was proposed in this paper based on its structural features and influencing factors. Standard index method, seasonal index smoothness method and PSO-BP algorithm were used to forecast the urban general water demand. The methods of water consumption index for unit GDP and unit land usage were used to forecast the industrial water demand. The analysis and comparison were conducted for the various forecasting methods. The prediction of the urban water demand by the integrated method ban be used as the basis for the development planning of the water cycle system.The evaluation index system was built for the sustainable development of city water cycle system in this paper. Based on the value engineering theory, the level (value) of the sustainable development of city water cycle system was divided into two parts, function and cost. The evaluation indexes were built corresponding to the relative aspects of the system development. The structural characteristics of the system operation and their interactive relations were analyzed with FANP analysis method.Based on the stochastic variation characteristic of the urban water demand, the uncertain programming model was build for the city water cycle system development. Based on the planning principles for sustainable development, a multi-objective programming model was build, taking the economic, social and environmental aspects into account. The uncertain variables in the planning model were simulated with Monte Carlo method. Then the planning model was solved with the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithms embed with Monte Carlo method.A city water cycle system of a coastal city in north China was used as a case study in this paper. The relevant theoretical knowledge and methods were applied in the development planning, which includes the evaluation of the sustainable development level and the construction and solving of the planning model. The methods applied in this paper could provide effective decision support for the water cycle system.更多还原