【作者】 蒋旭光；

【导师】 余建星；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工程管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 随着社会经济的发展,水资源短缺问题日益突出,跨流域调水是解决水资源时空分布不均的一条有效途径。有不少学者对跨流域调水问题进行了多方面的研究,并取得了显著的效果。但由于跨流域调水的复杂性、所涉及问题的综合多样性以及各跨流域调水系统自身具体情况的不同,使得到目前为止,已有的成果仍不能完全解决跨流域调水系统所面临的一些现实问题,仍需进一步丰富、发展和完善。本文以水资源可持续利用为基本指导思想,结合系统工程理论,运用模糊数学、神经网络等数学工具,对跨流域调水系统中水资源供需平衡分析、区域水资源优化配置、水环境保护和水价等问题进行了较为深入的研究,并以南水北调中线工程和引滦入津调水系统为对象进行了一定的实例分析。本研究不仅对跨流域调水系统的综合管理具有普遍的应用和参考价值,而且对南水北调和引滦入津调水系统的综合管理决策具有直接的参考借鉴作用。本文的主要研究内容如下:1、系统归纳了水资源的定义与特征,分析了水资源的组成,探讨了水资源量计算的基本理论和方法,论述了采用定额法进行流域需水预测的合理性,并对南水北调中线工程受水区的水资源供需平衡进行了具体分析研究。2、从水资源优化配置的概念、原则和模式出发,提出了水资源配置方案评价的模糊优选模型和BP神经网络模型;建立了包含社会、经济、资源、效率合理性四方面的水资源配置方案评价指标体系;对南水北调受水区内的天津市水资源优化配置问题进行了研究,为其水资源规划管理提供了参考依据。3、对调水工程水质保护中污染物控制总量进行了研究,提出了水环境安全的概念,从污染源、水质和生态三个方面建立了水环境安全评价指标体系;并以引滦入津工程为例,应用二级模糊综合评判理论实现对跨流域调水系统的水环境安全状况综合评价;最后,针对跨流域调水系统存在的水环境问题和污染物总量控制的要求,建立了一套水质保护对策。4、借鉴国外经验并结合我国特点,从水价分析、定价及实施三个方面入手,对跨流域调水系统的水价进行了研究,提出了基于分环节水价和三重构成水价的合理水价模型;针对目前跨流域调水系统水价计收中单一制水价的缺陷,阐述了两部制水价的优越性,提出了两部制水价的通用模型;通过南水北调中线工程实例验证,具有一定的可操作性,可对跨流域调水系统的水价研究与制定起到借鉴作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of society, the crisis of water resources is more outstanding. interbasin water transfer (IWT)is one of measures which can effectively resolve the problem of waterr esources uneven spatio-temporal distributing.But that the complexity of IWT, the integration and varieties of involved factors, and the differences between each IWT system make the study on water resources management of IWT system haven’t be systematical and perfect by now. In this paper, with the guidance of sustainabled evelopment idea, according to fuzzy mathematics, neural networks and other mathematics theory, and combining the system theory, some correlative theories and methods about the balance of water supply and damand, optimal allocation of water resources, water quality protection and water price are studied and applied to The Middle Route of South-to-North IWT system and Luanhe-Tianjin IWT system. The achievements of the study not only can provide all-pervading references for the comprehensive management of common IWT system, but which also supply the practical guidance to water resources comprehensive management and decision-making of The Middle Route of South-to-North IWT system and Luanhe-Tianjin IWT system.The main achievements can be classified as follows:1. The definition and characteristics of water resources are generalized systematically, the composition of water resources are analyzed, the rationality of norm method applied in water requirement forecast are discussed, at last the balance of water resources supply and damand of The Middle Route of South-to-North IWT system are analyzed.2. From the definition, principle and mode of optional allocation of water resources, the multi-level fuzzy optimaization model and BP neural network model are uesd to evaluate the water resources allocation schemes, and the evaluation index system of water resources allocation schemes is established, including the four aspects of social rationality, economic rationality, resource rationality and efficiency rationality. Then the theory is applied to the analysis of water resources allocation in Tianjin city, the achievements provied evidence for the water resources planning and management of Tianjin city.3. The pollutant gross control problem is studied in this paper, then the concept of water environment security is presented for the long-term work of water quality protection. The index system of water environment security evaluation is established in terms of pollution sources, water quality and ecology. On the background of Luanhe-Tianjin IWT system, two-level fuzzy comprehensive assessment model is used to evaluate status of water environment security of IWT system. According to the demand of pollutant gross control, the measures of water quality protection are advanced to solve the water environment problems of IWT system.4. By referred to foreign experiences and combined with our country’s actual condition, by researching on water price analysis, pricing and its implementation, this paper gives scientific analysis on the water price of IWT system, the rational water price model is established based on multi-tache water price and triple-structured water price. Considering the limitations of the single-part water price used in IWT system, the superiorities of the two-staged water price are expounded, and the general model for this kind of water price is put forward. Through applied in The Middle Route of South-to-North IWT, it is verified to be operable and helpful to the research and formulation of the water price of IWT system.更多还原