【作者】 王永利；

【导师】 牛东晓；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 2009年底,我国政府制定了2020年降低碳强度的目标:即单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%-45%。基于我国发展低碳经济的战略规划和近期提出的节能减排政策,本文对区域客户端能源综合需求侧管理进行了理论研究和实证分析,力图提高能源利用效率,减少碳排放,促进低碳经济发展。主要研究内容如下:(1)提出了区域客户端能源综合需求侧管理(ECDSM,Energy Comprehensive Demand-Side Management)的基本概念,就是从需求侧的角度去研究市场对于冷、热、电的生产和消费,从更高层次上处理好需求侧和供应侧的关系,根本上做到节约能源,保护环境;指明了实施ECDSM的目的,界定了实施ECDSM的条件,提出了实施ECDSM的手段,并分析了实施ECDSM的价值。(2)分析了区域客户端能源冷热电市场需求水平与消费结构。通过分析区域客户端市场对冷、热、电的需求及消费结构,找出了三者之间存在的内在联系,并通过三者之间的比例关系所体现出的能源消耗水平,找到了降低能源消耗的关键环节。(3)通过研究影响客户端能源需求的各项因素,建立了基于蚁群优化的支持向量机客户端能源需求预测模型,该模型有效克服了区域客户端能源需求历史资料搜集难度大,样本少,影响因素多,各影响因素与客户端能源需求变化的关联关系比较难掌握等难点。并以北京市为例,进行预测分析,预测精度与单独的SVM和BP神经网络相比分别提高了1.19%和1.92%,得到了很好的预测效果。(4)建立了基于节能减排的客户端能源运行机制,提出了客户端能源冷热电需求侧管理的技术机制、经济机制、激励机制以及行政机制,给出了相应的实施方案,并对政府在实施ECDSM过程中的作用给出了相应的政策建议。(5)结合能源消费、电力需求、建筑能耗、建筑节能、综合资源规划、国家能源政策等,分析了实施ECDSM涉及到的各方面因素和关键环节,构建了一套完整的客户端能源需求侧管理运行机制效果评价指标体系,并对相应的评价方法进行了分析。(6)以客户端能源需求侧运行机制效果评价指标体系为依据,结合三联供系统自身的特点构建了冷热电三联供技术的效益评价指标体系,建立了基于Elman神经网络模型的区域冷热电三联供评价模型,对冷热电三联供技术的实施效益进行了分析与评价。通过案例分析,验证了该评价模型较其他模型具有更高的评价精度,并具有广泛的实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 By the end of 2009, Chinese Government has enacted the goal of 2020 to reduce carbon intensity: carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced 40%-45% compared to 2005. Basing on the national policy of energy conservation and the strategic planning of low-carbon economy in China, and analyzing the long-term goal of improving energy efficiency, reducing pollution and emissions, this paper presents a effective measures. It is the theory and application research of regional client energy comprehensive demand-side management. It is hoped that through this research to achieve the purpose of saving energy consumption and improving energy efficiency.This paper proposes the concept of Energy Comprehensive Demand-Side Management (ECDSM), that is: studying the market’s demand for the production and consumption of cold, heat and power from the view of demand-side, and handling the relationship on the demand-side and the supply-side from a high level, which can fundamentally achieve the purpose of saving the energy and protecting the environment. This paper also proposes the involved contents, conditions, means and purposes of the implementation in the process of conducting ECDSM; and analyses the value of conducting ECDSM.This paper analyses the demand level and consumption structure of regional client energe cool heat power market. Through the analysis of the demand and consumption structure of the cool, heat and power in the regional client market, this paper discovers the inherent link of cool, heat and power, and finds the key to reducing energy consumption through the analysis of the energy consumption level, which can be deeply reflected in the analysis of the three’s proportional relationship.This paper studies all the factors that affected the client-side energy demand, and builts client-side energy demand forecast model based on Support Vector Machine and Ant Colony Optimization. This model overcomes these difficulties including the difficulties in the collection of the data for the local client-side demand, small sample, several of multiple factors, and hard to master the relationship between the affections and the change for the client-side energy demand. In this paper, take the case of Beijing for example, forecast and analyze the data, and get a good prediction at last.Based on Energy saving and emission reduction ,this paper establishes the client energy operation mechanism, presents technology, economic, incentives and administrative mechanisms on the management of client-side energy demand for heating and power, and proposes the corresponding implementation plans. In addition, corresponding policy proposals are given to government in the implementation process of the role of ECDSM.The client energy operation mechanism is proposed based on Energy saving and emission reduction, and a complete set of effectiveness evaluation index system for the client-side energy demand management and operating mechanism is constructed. During the process of index system, analyze the various of factors and links during the operation of ECDSM, taking consideration of the energy consumption, electricity demand side, building consumption, building saving, the integrated resource planning, national energy policies, and so on. In addition, the corresponding evaluation methods are also analyzed in this paper.This paper proposed the analysis and evaluation of the benefit of CCHP (combined cooling heating and power). According to the evaluation index system of the operational mechanism on the client-side energy demand, and the features of CCHP system, this paper established index system about benefit evaluation. It proposed the evaluation model, which is based on Elman neural network model for regional CCHP system. Through case studies, it is proved that the evaluation based on Elman neural network model is much more accurate. Besides the results come out to be very well, the evaluation model can be applied widely.更多还原