【作者】 何建伟；

【导师】 曾珍香；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化进程,城市规模越来越大,交通拥挤问题已成为全球大城市普遍面临的问题,对于我国这种人口基数大,经济发展快的国家而言,该问题更为严重。在此背景下,构建智能化的城市交通管控系统,对交通流进行科学的组织与管控,充分发挥现有交通网络的通行潜力,最大程度上使交通流做到有序流动已成当务之急。本文基于系统科学,运用系统动力学方法,对城市复杂交通流网络管控系统进行建模与系统仿真研究,并深入分析了相关因素和交通政策对城市交通流的影响,结合天津市交通流网络管控系统现状进行了应用研究。论文主要内容包括三部分:(1)在文献研究基础上,总结了国内外现有交通管控的理论和实践,系统地分析了城市复杂交通流网络管控系统结构,并对交通流网络管控系统中的机器系统(包括信号控制、交通诱导系统)和人工系统(包括交通需求管理系统、交通组织系统)等进行了系统分析。(2)分别对人工系统和机器系统进行了系统动力学分析与建模,明确阐述了系统建模目标、建模思路,界定了模型边界,进行了因果分析,建立了系统流图,并对各个子系统进行模拟仿真研究。(3)从主线出发,将各个子系统集成起来,建立了整体系统模型,并通过实际仿真,分析了平均延误时间、道路均衡率与交通负荷在现有数据上的演变趋势,同时对系统中主要控制与政策因素做了敏感性分析,考查对上述几个主要指标的影响,通过与实际场景进行对比,证明该模型确实能反映实际情况,同时也对城市交通路网状态的改善,提出了可行性建议。从分析天津市实际路网结构入手,将模型应用于天津市交通流网络管控系统中进行仿真,并与实际情况相比较,验证了模型的合理性与可扩展性。论文研究中将复杂的宏观模型分解为各个微观的子模型,再对各个子模型之间的关系进行分析,进而完成了整体系统的建模和仿真。论文在深入研究的基础上,提出了一种切实可行的分析城市复杂交通流瓶颈问题的系统动力学研究框架,并基于研究框架进行了一系列模拟仿真和实际应用的验证,证实了所提出研究框架的合理性、科学性及其理论意义。论文除对交通管控系统进行理论分析和仿真验证外,还将研究成果应用于实际场景之中,在天津市的交通流网络管控系统建设上取得了明显的应用效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the process of economic globalization, the scales of cities have increased rapidly and thus trafficcongestion has already become a generally faced problem in big cities. The problem is more serious in ourcountry, which has a large population and a rapidly growing economy. Under this background, it is importantas well as urgent to build an urban traffic management and control systems to organize and control traffic flowin a more scientific way, to give fully play to the potential capacity of the existing traffic network and the wellorganization of the traffic flow.This dissertation builds modeling to the complicated urban traffic network control and management systemwith the systematic dynamics method and analyzes relevant effects of factors of feasible traffic policiesthrough simulation results. In this dissertation, this modeling is applied to the Tianjin traffic network controland management systemin Tianjin. The main contents of this dissertation include three parts:(1) The structure of flattened traffic flow network control and management system is analyzed. Firstly,the traffic flow network control and management system is introduced. Secondly, the signal control and trafficguiding system are introduced. Finally, the traffic demand management system and the traffic organizationsystemin artificial systemare introduced in order to have a more specific knowledge to the overall system.(2) Models of each subsystem is build in a systematic dynamic way, including traffic demand, trafficorganization, traffic scheduling, signal control and traffic guide. The modeling objective, modeling idea ofeach subsystem is analyzed and model boundaries are confirmed and system circulation is realized by theanalysis of causality. Simulation of each subsystemis made.(3) Starting from the main line, system model is built by integrating each subsystem. Through softwaresimulation, the evolution trends of the average delay, the equilibrium rate as well as the traffic load areanalyzed. Also, the sensitivity analysis about main control and policy factors in the system is made. Byevaluating effects of those above-mentioned indexes and comparing it with actually situations, the model isverified to be able to reflect actual situation. Feasible suggests are made to improve the state of the urban traffic network. The model is applied to the traffic flow network control and management system in Tianjin.By analyzing the actual road network structure in Tianjin, simulating with software and then comparing theresult with the actual situation, the rationalityand expansibility of the model is verified.Through the completion of the study contents, this dissertation has proposed a practical analysis on systemdynamics research framework of urban traffic flow complex system. The analyses on the traffic flow complexsystems will be broken down into various micro sub-models, and each sub-model relationship is shown indetail, thus the overall system modeling is completed. Aseries of simulation proof the reasonable and scientificof the proposed framework. In addition to the theoretical simulation system, the system will be truly applied tothe actual scene among the networks in Tianjin’s traffic flow building management and control system, andplaya positive role.更多还原