【作者】 陈军；

【导师】 龚新蜀；

【作者基本信息】 石河子大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 对外贸易结构是一国或地区经济技术发展水平、产业结构状况、商品国际竞争力、国际分工和国际贸易地位等的综合反映。从实证研究的层次上看,比较优势的状况及其变化深刻地反映在对外贸易结构问题上。在新疆外贸总额快速增长的同时,对外贸易结构不合理的问题也日渐突出。要实现新疆对外贸易的全面、协调、可持续发展,既要注重“量”的增长,更要注重“质”的提高,这就要求优化新疆对外贸易结构。同时,优化对外贸易结构也是新疆转变外贸发展方式的核心和基础。本文综合运用国际贸易学、经济地理学、对外贸易学、国际经济关系学、产业经济学等学科的理论与方法,结合新疆独特的区情,全面系统的从商品结构、市场结构、方式结构和模式结构分析研究了新疆对外贸易结构优化问题。本论文除第一章导论和第十章结论与展望部分外,主要内容包括以下几部分：第一部分是相关概念界定及理论基础,即论文的第二章,主要界定了贸易结构、贸易模式和贸易方式等概念,介绍了相关贸易结构理论基础和贸易结构优化理论；第二部分是新疆对外贸易结构的发展概况,即论文的第三章,主要包括新疆对外贸易发展历程和新疆对外贸易结构发展状况；第三部分是新疆对外贸易商品结构、市场结构、方式结构和模式结构,即论文的第四章至第七章。其中,第四章就新疆外贸商品结构的现状、影响因素展开分析,并进行实证检验。第五章内容包括新疆外贸市场结构的现状、影响因素及实证分析、主要出口市场的潜力分析。第六章主要研究新疆外贸方式结构的现状、成因及结构中存在的缺陷。第七章研究新疆对外贸易模式结构的现状、影响因素分析和贸易模式结构的缺陷；第四部分是新疆对外贸易各结构间的关联及结构效应的测评,即论文的第八章。第五部分,即论文的第九章,主要研究新疆对外贸易结构的优化及对策建议。基于上述研究,本文得出以下主要结论：第一,新疆对外贸易商品结构从工业制成品和初级产品的占比来看,已得到明显改善。但就新疆本地产出口商品结构而言,商品结构并不理想,初级产品占比偏高。产业结构、经济总量、技术进步和扩散、国外直接投资、金融发展等是影响新疆贸易商品结构的主要因素。新疆对外贸易商品结构的优化要从提升新疆本地产工业制成品在新疆出口中的占比、提高资本技术密集型商品在新疆出口中的比重、改进贸易结构中无形商品的占比方面入手。第二,贸易对象的高集中度是新疆对外贸易市场结构的主要特征。出口商品竞争力、进口国购买力水平、贸易互补性和区域经济一体化及贸易壁垒是影响新疆贸易市场结构的主要因素。通过对新疆主要出口市场的潜力分析,提出在积极拓展新疆外贸市场多元化的同时,更应突出重点化。新疆外贸外部市场结构的优化和拓展,不能脱离新疆的现状而刻意追求超大、超特、超高,其目标应锁定在区域、分阶段和单层结构,不能偏离陆路边境地区的特殊属性。第三,边境贸易占主体,加工贸易占比偏低且呈下降趋势,一般贸易占比趋于萎缩是新疆对外贸易方式结构现状的主要特征。这主要是由新疆发展边境贸易的独特优势、开展加工贸易的自身劣势及一般贸易面临的“挤出效应”决定的。优化新疆对外贸易方式结构应加快边境贸易形式的战略转变,实行边贸企业集团化经营战略,逐步从依靠国家优惠政策向发挥自身优势转变,突破边界效应以提升外贸外向型水平,突出加工贸易的产业选择和区位选择,提升一般贸易的国际竞争力。第四,产业间贸易是新疆对外贸易的主要模式。工业技术基础、规模经济、经济发展水平和市场一体化程度是影响新疆贸易模式结构的主要因素,也是新疆产业间贸易向产业内贸易转换的主要制约因素。资本积累、技术扩散及技术创新演进机制是新疆贸易模式动态演进的机制选择,由产业间贸易过渡到垂直型产业内贸易,再到以水平型产业内贸易为主要构成是符合新疆实际的贸易模式演进路径。在新的国际分工形势下,可通过贸易模式动态演进过程来实现新疆对外贸易比较优势的提升。第五,通过恒定市场份额模型对新疆对外贸易结构的结构效应进行测算,结果表明：主要出口对象整体而言,2006-2009年相比2001-2005年出口增长率提高,结构效应的贡献度下降,出口竞争力贡献度提高,次结构效应基本没有变化。这反映出新疆出口商品在进口国进口规模扩大和进口需求结构变化的过程中,适应能力下降；在综合竞争力显著提升的同时,产品竞争力却在下降,并呈放大态势,很可能是由于贸易价格条件的恶化导致；次结构效应的贡献程度还应有较大提升空间。更多还原

【Abstract】 Foreign trade structure of a country or region reflect the level of economy and technology development, industry structure status, international competition of commodity, the degree of the international division of production and international trade. From the point of view of empirical research, comparative advantage’status and its changes profoundly reflectes on the structure of foreign trade. While the rapid development of Xinjiang’s foreign trade, the problem of irrational trade structure is also more prominent. Xinjiang’s foreign trade should not only focus on "quantity"of growth, but also to focus on "quality" of the increase of foreign trade to achieve a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development, we must optimize the structure of foreign trade. Meanwhile, the optimization of the structure of foreign trade is the core and foundation of the transformation of Xinjiang foreign trade development mode.This paper uses the theories and methods of International Trade, Economic Geography, foreign trade, international economy relations and industrial economics synthetically, combining with the unique regional situation in Xinjiang, then study on the optimization of the commodity structure, market structure, form structure and mode structure comprehensively and systemicly in Xingjiang.In addition to the first chapter and Chapter X of this thesis, the main contents include the following parts:The first part is defining the concepts and theoretical basis, that is, the second chapter. The main concepts involve the trade structure, trade patterns and trade forms. And introduced the related theories of trade structure and trade structure optimization; The second part is the development overview of Xinjiang’s foreign trade structure, the third chapter, including Xinjiang’s foreign trade development process and development of Xinjiang’s foreign trade structure; The third part introduces to Xinjiang’s foreign trade commodity structure, market structure, form structure and mode structure. That is, the fourth chapter to chapter VII. Among them, the fourth chapter analyses the status of Xinjiang’s foreign trade commodity structure, and the infection factors of it, and have a empirical test. The fifth chapter content include the status of Xinjiang’s foreign trade market structure, influencing factors and empirical analysis, the potential export market analysis. The sixth chapter mainly introduces the status of Xinjiang’s foreign trade form structure, shortage of it and transformation of it. The seventh chapter study on the status of Xinjiang’s foreign trade mode structure, the influencing factors and empirical analysis, shortage of it. The fourth part is the evaluation of Xinjiang’s foreign trade structure effect, namely, Chapter VIII of the paper. Based on the study of correlation among Xinjiang’s foreign trade commodity structure, market structure, form structure and mode structure, use mathematical models to evaluate Xinjiang’s foreign trade structure effects. The fifth part, Chapter IX of the paper, focus on the optimization of Xinjiang’s foreign trade structure, respectively bring forward corresponding countermeasures.Based on the above, I draw the following conclusions:Ⅰ. The commodity structure of Xinjiang’s foreign trade has been improved significantly from the proportion of manufactured goods and primary products. But in terms of export structure of Xinjiang’s local commodity, commodity structure is not ideal. The proportion of primary products is high. There are several major factors that inflect the commodity structure of Xinjiang’s foreign trade, such as industrial structure, economic output, technological progress, foreign direct investment, financial development.The optimization of Xinjiang’s foreign trade commodity structure should start from improving the proportion of local industrial products, raising the export proportion of capital and technology-intensive goods, improving the proportion of intangible goods.Ⅱ. High concentration of markets is the main features of Xinjiang’s foreign trade market structure. The main factors that affect Xinjiang’s foreign trade market structure include export competitiveness, the level of purchasing power of the importing country, trade complementarity and regional economic integration and trade barriers. On the potential of main export markets analysis, expansion of Xingjiang external markets should not deliberate pursuit super-big, super-special, super-high divorced from Xinjiang’s status. We should be locked at the regional, and single-layer structure phases, can not deviate from the special attributes of the land border areas.Ⅲ. Border trade is the main form of Xinjiang’s foreign trade,and the proportion of processing trade is very low,while general trade trend to shrink. This is because of development of border trade in Xinjiang’s unique advantages and disadvantages of processing trade and general trade that facing the "crowding out". The way of optimizing the form structure of Xinjiang foreign trade should accelerate the strategic transformation of border trade, and carry out border trade enterprise group management strategies, gradually shift from relying on the state preferential policies to their own advantages change, and break the boundary effects to enhance the level of foreign trade export-oriented. Industry selection and location selection will be the key to foster the processing trade of Xinjiang.Ⅳ. Inter-industry trade is the main mode of foreign trade. Industrial technology base, economies of scale, economic development and market integration are the major factors of Xinjiang’s foreign trade patterns structure. At the same time, these factors are the restricted factors that realize Xinjiang industry trade to inter-industry trade. Under the new international division of production situation, Xinjiang may realize Comparative advantage’ promotion through the dynamic evolution of trade patterns.Ⅴ. For main export markets, constant market model of Xinjiang’s foreign trade structure show that the contribution of structure effect is declining, and the contribution of export competitiveness is improving. Sub-structure effect does not change basically.While significantly improved on overall competitiveness, the competitiveness of products is on the decline, and being enlarged. Contribution of sub-structure effect should be improved in a great degree.更多还原