【作者】 梁红卫；

【导师】 张宝文；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 农业与农村社会发展， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 农民专业合作社在近年来蓬勃发展,日渐成为提高农民组织化程度,发展现代农业,建设社会主义新农村的重要载体。积极防范和妥善处理风险,对农民专业合作社乃至对农业与农村社会发展都具有重要意义,但农民专业合作社的风险管理问题,无论在理论还是实践均未起步。为丰富合作经济理论,培育农民的风险意识,指导农民专业合作社开展风险管理,促进农民专业合作社稳健发展,本论文应用社会调查法、层次分析法、文献分析法等方法,在国内首次对农民专业合作社的风险管理问题进行了系统研究。研究结果表明,我国农业合作社在不同历史时期承受的风险迥异,解放前主要为战争风险,建国后至改革开放前则为政策风险。当前,农民专业合作社受其经营产业、生存环境和成员素质等因素的影响,面临着自然风险、经济风险、科技风险和信用与道德风险等多种风险的袭扰。各种风险相互交织和传导,给农民专业合作社造成严重的损失,增加了农民专业合作社的生存压力。在农民专业合作社内部,成员的风险认知水平普遍不高且存在层次性,相对而言,合作社负责人对风险的认知程度稍高于普通社员。影响成员风险认知的诸因素中,文化程度和教育培训的作用最为显著;农民专业合作社负责人和理事等骨干成员多为风险厌恶者,他们对风险的态度与其年龄、家庭收入、文化程度和性别等因素密切相关。基于上述研究,本文运用合作社和风险管理理论,建立农民专业合作社风险评估指标体系,提出农民专业合作社风险评估的方法和预警机制的构建思路,并以A农民专业合作社为例加以诠释。在风险管理的实践层面,论文以风险发生前后为界将农民专业合作社风险管理的目标进行恰当定位,并勾勒出农民专业合作社风险管理组织的基本架构,之后,借鉴国外经验,结合我国农民专业合作社实际,提出农民专业合作社应用回避风险、控制风险、转移风险和承受风险四种策略的具体路径,建议政府从加强理论研究、加大扶持力度、强化指导与服务、健全信息服务体系、完善价格保护机制、加快发展农业保险和农产品期货市场等方面着手,为农民专业合作社加强风险管理提供良好的外部环境。全文分为八章,各章主要内容如下:第一章,导言。本章首先阐述论文的研究背景、研究目的和意义,继而对国内外合作社风险管理研究的相关文献与成果进行综述,在前人研究成果的基础上,提出本文的研究思路与方法,指出论文的可能创新之处。第二章,相关概念与基础理论。本章厘清农民专业合作社与风险管理的相关概念,并对相关的基础理论,如合作社理论、风险管理理论及风险控制理论等加以阐释,为论文的研究奠定概念与理论基础。第三章,国外合作社风险管理管理经验与启示。本章重点介绍了美国、德国、日本及英国四国合作社的基本情况,并从项目评估、人本管理、内外监督、机制创新、套期保值、保险转嫁等七个方面分析了国外合作社在风险管理上的经验,在此基础上,总结出对我国农民专业合作社风险管理的启示。第四章,农民专业合作社风险演进与成因探微。本章从解放前、建国至改革开放前和改革开放后三个阶段回顾了我国农民专业合作社的发展变迁轨迹,对各阶段合作社的风险类型进行深入探讨,继之就当前农民专业合作社风险的特点与成因进行归纳和剖析。第五章,农民专业合作社的风险认知与偏好。本章是对农民专业合作社实地调研的情况介绍和结果分析。对风险认知的研究,论文选取农民专业合作社负责人和普通社员进行问卷调查,并运用Probit模型对风险认知影响因素进行回归和估计。对于农民专业合作社合作社风险偏好,文章尝试应用ELEC模型,对农民专业合作社负责人和理事等骨干成员进行实验研究。第六章,农民专业合作社风险评估与预警。本章基于既有理论,依次探讨农民专业合作社各类风险的评估标的,在此基础上,建立农民专业合作社风险评估指标体系,提出整体风险的度量方法,阐述农民专业合作社风险预警机制的构建思路。第七章,农民专业合作社风险管理路径与政策建议。本章对农民专业合作社风险管理目标进行科学定位,按照形神兼具的要求设计了风险管理的组织架构,之后,借鉴国外经验,结合我国实际,提出农民专业合作社应对风险的四种策略和七项政策建议。第八章,结论与拓展。本章总结论文的主体内容,提炼主要结论,提出今后的努力方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 The specialized farmers cooperatives flourishes in recent years,It is becoming an important carrier to improve the degree of farmer organizations,develop modern agriculture, and build the New Socialist Countryside. Actively prevent and properly handle the risk are very important for the specialized farmers cooperatives,even for agriculture and rural development. But the risk management issues of the specialized farmers cooperatives are not started both in theory and practice.In order to enrich the theory of specialized farmers cooperatives,foster awareness of the risk of farmers,guide the specialized farmers cooperatives to carry out risk management and help the specialized farmer cooperative steady develop, this dissertation, using social investigation methods , the analytic hierarchy process , the probit model and other methods, mkes a systematic study to the risk management of the specialized farmers cooperatives for the first time in china.The results showed that,the risk of the specialized farmers cooperatives is Significantly different In different historical periods. The main risk is war before the liberation, then it is policy risk between after the liberation and before the reform and opening up. Now the specialized farmers cooperatives is facing many kinds of risks because of its ways of production, living environment and the quality of members. Various risks mutual influencing which has caused serious damage to the specialized farmers cooperatives and increased it the pressure on the survival.Inside the the specialized farmers cooperatives,The level of members’risk perception is generally low and hierarchy. In contrast, the managers’perception of risk is higher than that of ordinary members,educational level and training are the most significant in the effective factors. Farmer cooperatives and their core members are mostly risk aversion,their attitudes to risk are closely related with their age, income, educational level and gender.Based on the above , this paper appling the theories of cooperatives and risk management,establishes the risk evaluation index system,puts forward the methods to measure the overall risk and the opinion to construct the risk alert mechanism of the specialized farmers cooperatives,then makes A cooperatives as an example to elaborate.In the practical aspects of risk management,the paper properly sets the risk management objectives of the specialized farmers cooperatives Before and after the occurrence of a risk,outlines the basic framework of risk management organization. After this,the author referencing the foreign experience and linking the actual situation of our country,Proposes the specific path for the specialized farmers cooperatives to apply the strategies of risk management :avoid risk, control risk, transfer risk and accept the risk. In the end ,the dissertation suggests that the government shoud provide a good external environment for the specialized farmers cooperatives to strengthen risk management from the following aspects:strengthening research,providing more support,strengthening the co-supervision,building and perfecting the information service system,perfecting the price protection rules,accelerating the development of agricultural insurance and agricultural futures markets.The whole dissertation is divided into eight chapters, each chapter of primary coverage is as follows:The first chapter, introduction. This chapter first describes the research background, purpose and significance,subsequently summarizes the related literature and the achievement of the domestic and foreign farmers cooperatives on risk management researches. Based on the predecessor research results,the author puts forward the methods and approaches of research, and also points out the article’s possible innovation and shortcoming.The second chapter, the related concepts and basic theories. This chapter defines clearly the concepts of the specialized farmers cooperatives in particular the risk management, explains the related basic theories, such as the cooperatives theory, the risk management and the risk control theory, which laid the conceptive and theoretical foundation for the study.The third chapter, the risk management experience and the inspiration of foreign cooperatives. This chapter first introduces the basic situations of four countries, namely, American, German, Japanese and the British cooperatives,then analyzes all-directionally the risk management experience of the overseas cooperatives from the point of project evaluation, the expert management, the inside and outside supervision, the mechanism innovation, the audit supervision and so on.The fourth chapter, the risk evolution and causal analysis.This chapter reviews the development history of the agricultural cooperative from three phases:before the liberation,after the liberation and after the reform and opening up,and analyzes in-depth the risk types of the specialized farmers cooperatives on different stages, then the article evaluates the causes and features of the risk which the specialized farmers cooperatives are facing.The fifth chapter, the risk perception and preferences of the specialized farmers cooperatives. This chapter is a presentation and analysis of field research to 25 cooperatives in Y city. In the research on risk perception of the specialized farmers cooperatives,the author of this paper conducted a questionnaire survey to the managers and the general members,then applied Probit model to analysis the factors affecting members’risk perception. On the preferences of the specialized farmers cooperatives,the article appling the ELEC model carried tentatively out an experimental research to the core member consist of Some leaders and council members.The sixth chapter, the risk assessment and early warning of the specialized farmers cooperatives. Based on the existing theory,this chapter discusses the elements of each type of risk assessment respectively. On this basis, the author establishes the risk evaluation index system,raises the methods to measure the overall risk and the opinion to construct the risk alert mechanism of the specialized farmers cooperatives.The seventh chapter, the risk management path and countermeasure of the specialized farmers cooperatives. This chapter analyzes the goal and organization construction of the specialized farmers cooperatives for risk management. according to practical situation of the specialized farmers cooperatives. This papers presents four kinds of strategies and seven points of policy recommendations for the specialized farmers cooperatives to cope with risks .The eighth chapter, the conclusion and extension. This chapter summarizes the main theses, refines the main conclusions and proposes the direction for further study .更多还原