【作者】 郝金磊；

【导师】 贾金荣；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 农村人力资源管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 人口老龄化趋势加快及传统养老保障模式功能弱化使我国农村养老保障问题日益凸显,农民养老问题的解决已成为我国社会主义新农村建设、和谐社会构建及全面小康社会建设的重要考量。多年来,各级政府一直在通过试点进行探索和完善,致力于找到一个相对稳定和“普适”的养老保障模式,以有效解决农村居民的养老问题,并不断缩小养老保障水平的区域差异。但从理论上看,短期内建立“普适性”的农村养老保障模式具有较大的挑战性。农村养老保障模式的构建与实施必须遵循经济与社会发展的规律,权衡各种制约因素的影响。区域差异的存在决定了农村养老保障模式的构建应有所侧重,在构建过程中应体现农村养老保障模式的区域适应性及农民养老保障模式选择意愿的差别。国内研究农村养老保障模式的文献较多,但基于区域差异视角对农村养老保障模式进行的研究较少。因此,在人口老龄化的背景下,从区域差异的视角研究农村养老保障模式,对于保障各区域农村老年人的基本生活、促进农村养老保障事业的协调发展具有重要的现实意义。本文运用经济学、社会学、保险学等学科的相关理论,借鉴已有文献的研究成果,利用相关统计年鉴的宏观数据及实地调查的微观数据,采用主成分分析、聚类分析、因子分析、多元回归模型、有序Probit模型、保费估算模型等实证分析方法,从区域差异的视角对中国农村养老保障模式进行了系统研究。文章在界定区域差异及农村养老保障相关概念、总结相关理论的基础上,分析了我国农村养老保障及其模式的现状,并根据农村养老保障模式运行环境的不同进行了区域划分,依据区域划分的结果,定量分析了不同农村养老保障模式的区域适应性及不同区域农民养老保障模式的选择意愿,并以此为基础分区域构建了不同的农村养老保障模式,提出了本文的研究结论与展望。本文的研究结论主要包括:(1)农村养老保障模式的运行环境具有较大的区域差异性。根据运行环境的差异,可将我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的农村具体划分为三种类型的区域。(2)农村养老保障模式的区域适应性存在差异。社会互济养老保障模式与家庭代际养老保障模式在三类区域的适应性都较强,个体自我养老保障模式在Ⅲ类区域的适应性较强,而在其他两类区域的适应性较弱。每一种农村养老保障模式的区域适应性受不同因素的影响。(3)农民养老保障模式选择意愿存在差别。虽然各区域农民都倾向于选择以社会互济养老保障模式为主导的、多渠道的养老资源供给模式,但意愿的强烈程度存在一定差别,且不同区域农民养老保障模式选择意愿受不同因素的影响。(4)我国当前建立一体化的养老保障模式仍存在一定困难,一体化的目标需要分阶段、分步骤地来实现。当前应立足我国国情,在区域差异的背景下分区域构建农村养老保障模式,并将分区域构建的模式作为现实模式,按照现实模式→过渡模式→目标模式的发展路径逐步转换与升级。本文研究的创新点包括:(1)根据农村养老保障模式运行环境的不同,在建立指标体系的基础上运用聚类分析方法进行了区域的划分。(2)采用因子分析和多元回归方法对农村养老保障模式的区域适应性进行了分析,发现每一种养老保障模式的区域适应性受不同因素的影响,且在不同区域表现出不同的适应性。(3)运用有序Probit模型分别分析了三类区域农民的养老保障模式选择意愿,发现不同区域农民养老保障模式选择意愿存在一定差别,且受不同因素影响。(4)分区域构建了不同的农村养老保障模式,并对构建模式的保障效果进行了分析,对模式转换与升级的路径进行了探讨。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rural areas in our country have to face with the severe challenge of how to provide resources for the local old people, with the aging problem becomes more serious and the traditional old-age security model’s function becomes much weak than before. The problem of rural old-age security has already become an important influential factor of constructing the new socialist countryside, building the harmonious and comprehensive well-off society. For many years, in order to effectively solve the problems of the rural old-age pension, and shrinking of urban-rural and regional differences, the Chinese government emphasized the importance of well-coordinated development and committed to find a way to solve the rural old-age security problem. Theoretically speaking, it is a complicated, difficult and long-term process to establish the universal old-age security model. The unified old-age security model is only a goal and direction temporarily, which conducts the endowment work, but not the task of this period. The construction of the rural old-age security models must follow the laws of economy and society, weighing the influences of the comprehensive factors. Regional differences determine that the construction of the rural old-age security models should has the stress, the construction of the rural old-age security models must consider the rural old-age security model’s adaptability and the farmers’intention of selection the rural old-age security models. There are more domestic research literatures about the rural old-age security models, but there are less from the angel of regional differences. Under the background of aging, analyzing the construction of the rural old-age security models from the regional differences has an important practical significance to ensure the basic life of the old people and promote the coordinate development of the old-age security undertakings.This paper uses the theories of economics, sociology, insurance and the existing relevant references, choosing statistical yearbook macro data and micro survey data, selecting the Principal Analysis, Cluster Analysis, Multiple Regression Model, Ordered Probit Model, Premium Estimate Model to study the China’s old-age security model from the angel of regional differences. Bases on the related concepts of regional differences and rural old-age security models, this paper makes a division of the rural old-age security areas in China. According to the regional differences of the operating environment, the paper uses empirical analysis method examining the regional adaptability of the rural old-age security models and the farmers’selection intention of different old-age security models in different areas, and analysis the construction of the rural old-age security model bases on regional differences, and puts forward the study conclusions and prospect.The main conclusions of this article includes: (1) the operation environment of the rural old-age security models have large regional differences. According to the operation environment, we can divide the 31 provinces (autonomous region, municipality) of China into three types of rural old-age security model areas. (2) The adaptability of different models has many differences in different areas, and in different areas, the adaptability of each model is influenced by different factors. (3) The peasants of each area intend to choose multi-channel support model to ensure their life, in which the social insurance model is the dominant model, but the extent of intention existing different degree, and the peasants’intention of choosing the old-age security models in different areas is influenced by different factors. (4) There are many difficulties in establishing an integration old-age security model in China at present. Based on the China’s national conditions and under the background of regional differences, we should establish different old-age security models in different areas, transforming and upgrading these models gradually, and finally establishing a nationwide integration old-age security model.The innovation points of this article include: (1) According to the differences of operation environment of each rural old-age security model, the article uses the cluster analysis to divide the areas. (2) The article analysis the adaptability and the influencing factors of each model in different areas using methods of Factor Analysis and Multiple Regression. (3) Bases on the Ordered Probit Model, the paper analyses the selection intention and influencing factors in different areas. (4) Different old-age security models is established in different areas in the article, and the effect of each models is analyzed, and the paths to transform and upgrad the models are discussed in the article.更多还原