【作者】 赵建军；

【导师】 杨平；

【作者基本信息】 南京林业大学 ， 森林工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 地铁工程建设由于其自身系统的特点和良莠不齐的建筑市场,使得业主(即建设单位)在建设过程中受到来自于自然环境、社会环境、组织环境等多方面的风险。在实践过程中,风险管理的实施往往分散在建设项目的各个阶段,且每个参建单位都在各自合同范围内进行风险管理,使得整个项目的风险管理处于时间上的分割、空间上的分散状态。因此,本文从业主的角度出发,对地铁工程建设项目集成化风险管理体系进行系统研究,其目的在于促使业主系统、全面地规范风险管理流程和方式,充分整合工程项目组织成员的资源和优势,构建统一、高效的风险管理平台。本文主要就以下几个方面做了系统研究,获得相应成果：1、以地铁工程建设特征为客观依据,以风险管理理论、全寿命期管理理论及项目组织理论为理论依据,以业主在风险管理中的核心地位分析为逻辑依据,构建了基于业主的风险管理集成化模型(OIRM模型),风险维—组织维—过程维的风险管理三维体系是该模型的核心,并形成适用于地铁工程建设的连续性、系统性的风险管理范式。2、将WBS矩阵引入OIRM模型,规范OIRM模型过程维的分解思路和方法,结合某地铁二号线标段策划进行实例应用阐述。3、以贝尔活系统模型为理论,搭建业主层风险集成管理组织平台,同时以非对称演化博弈理论对风险管理组织成员间的合作策略进行研究,并进一步构建了以客观能动性评估和主观能动性评估相结合的承包商风险管理能力评估模型。4、定义了OIRM模型下风险识别的基本流程,并通过文献归纳、专家访谈、工作实践等多种手段,对地铁工程建设的系统性风险及可研阶段、勘察设计阶段、招标投标阶段、施工阶段的非系统性风险进行了较为全面的、系统的识别。5、提出了OIRM风险评估体系,建立了基于风险自然属性指数和风险管理能力指数的风险评估模型,并采用问卷调查形式确定了评估模型中的重要参数——地铁行业的社会化平均先进风险管理水平指数S‘。6、从事前风险分配和事后风险分配两个角度分别阐述了风险分配原则的应用,给出制定地铁工程各阶段风险策略的思路,并提出OIRM模型风险预警系统的框架。本文的研究拓宽了风险管理研究视角,进一步深化了集成化风险管理理论体系,扩大了集成化风险管理的应用层面。更多还原

【Abstract】 Due to its own characteristics and mixed construction market, metro construction makes the owner undertake many risks from the natural environment, social environment, organizational environment, and other aspects in the process of construction. In practice, the implementation of risk management is often scattered in various stages of construction projects, and each participating unit carries out risk management within its own contract scope, making the entire project risk management be in the temporal segmentation and spatial dispersion state. This paper, from the perspective of the owners, systematically investigate the integrated risk management system of the metro construction project, in order to encourage owners standardize risk management processes and methods systematically and comprehensively, and fully integrate the resources and advantages of project members to build a unified platform for risk management.This paper focuses on the following aspects and obtains the corresponding results.1. With the metro construction characteristic as objective basis, with risk management theory, life cycle management theory and organizational theory as the theoretical basis, and with the owners be the core position in risk management as the rationale basis, the Owner-based Integrated Model of Risk Management (OIRM, for short) is made. Three-dimensional system of the risk dimension-organization dimension-process dimension of risk management is the core of this model. The continuous and systematic risk management paradigm for metro construction is also formed in this paper.2. WBS matrix will be introduced to OIRM, to regulate the decomposition ideas and methods of OIRM process dimension, this paper will illustrate this combined with a bid planning of a metro line 2.3. With Bell model as the theory, to build owners integrated risk management organization platform layer, and to analyze the cooperation strategy of risk management organization members with asymmetric evolutionary game theory, and the model combined objective evaluation and subjective evaluation to assess the contractor risk management capabilities is build.4. This paper defines the basic process of risk identification of OIRM, and through literature reviews, expert interviews, work practices and other means identifies the systemic risks of metro construction and the non-systematic risks of investigation phase, design phase, bidding phase and construction phase comprehensively and systematically.5. This paper proposes the OIRM risk assessment system, and builds the risk assessment model based on risk natural attribute index and management capability index, and determines the important parameter (the index S* of social average advanced risk management of metro construction industry) of the assessment model by using questionnaire.6. This paper expounds the application of the risk allocation principles from the aspects of risk allocation beforehand and risk allocation afterwards; then gives metro construction risk strategy ideas on each stage, and put forward the framework of OIRM model risk precaution system.This study broadens the perspective of risk management research, further deepens the theory system of integrated risk management and expands the application level of integrated risk management.更多还原