【作者】 李明踊；

【导师】 佘光辉；

【作者基本信息】 南京林业大学 ， 森林经理学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 研究林纸一体化项目规模经济问题,对于处理好林业内部细分产业之间、林业与农业之间以及林业与浆纸业之间的协调发展,兼顾好林纸一体化项目与交通运输等行业的促进和制约关系,在项目规划和建设中确定林纸一体化项目的适度规模、减少社会资源的浪费、提升项目的经济、生态以及社会效益,有着很重要的作用。本文依据森林经理学基本原理及森林可持续经营规划与资源管理方法,在研究现有林纸一体化及规模经济理论成果和实践经验的基础上,综合运用理论归纳、定性分析、计量分析、MFA和CSA模型创建、实证分析等方法,结合实际案例对林纸一体化项目规模经济问题开展研究。论文分为七个部分,首先叙述了本文的研究背景、目的和意义,并对研究思路、方法与结构作了叙述。第二部分为理论研究,主要阐述林纸一体化和规模经济理论,重点分析了纸业原料路线的演变、林纸一体化内涵及国内外学者的研究动态；论述了规模经济的内涵、作用、新特征、理论基础及形成机理,分析了国内外关于规模经济的研究进展,总结了关于规模经济的主要理论成就。笔者对理论研究进展提出了自已的观点。第三部分对林纸一体化国内外现状开展对比分析,主要分析了造纸工业的作用、特点、林纸一体化的优点以及国际和国内林纸一体化现状；指出了实施林纸一体化存在的难点问题及在项目规模经济方面存在的误区。第四部分采用MFA(Multi-factors analysis)和CSA(Cost structure analysis)分析林纸一体化项目规模经济的影响因素,研究各种影响因素的定性或定量关系,深入分析了林纸一体化项目的主要影响因素,以及这些影响因素对林纸一体化项目产生制约和促进作用的具体途径和方式,研究分析了林纸一体化项目木材原料的定价方法及其对项目规模经济的影响,建立了项目适度经济规模的计量模型,对林纸一体化项目规模经济问题开展了比较透彻的分析论证。平均成本ACp=[(C1+C2+C3+C4)/Qw+Lp1*(β1+α1Q)]*(1+θ)*4+Lp2*(β2+α2Q) +Ω+0.7*[Pe+Lp3*(β3+α3Q)]+0.4*[Pc+Lp4*(p4+α4Q)]+λQγ+φ其中λ>0,γ<0 (4-27)ACp’=Lp1*α1*(1+θ)*4+Lp2*α2+0.7*Lp3*α3+0.4*Lp4*α4+λγQγ-1(4-28)ACp"=λγ(γ-1)Qγ-2>0 (4-29)平均成本最小时的产量Q*=[-(Lp1*α1*[(1+θ)*4+Lp2*α2+0.7*Lp3*α3+ 0.4*Lp4*α4)/(λγ)]1/(γ-1)是单调递减的幂函数,当主要物资的运输费用率Lp1、Lp2、Lp3、Lp4上升时,林纸一体化项目最低成本产量值变小。项目利润π=P*Q-[(C1+C2+C3+C4)/Qw+Lp1*(β1+α1Q)]*4*Q- Lp2*(β2+α2Q)*Q-Ω*Q-0.7*[Pe+Lp3*(β3+α3Q)]*Q-0.4*[Pc+Lp4*(β4+α4Q)]*Q-ρQμ-φ*Q,其中ρ>0,μ>1 (4—35)π’=P-4*(C1+C2+C3+C4)/Qw-4*Lp1*β1-8*α1Q-Lp2*β2-2*Lp2*α2*木Q-Ω-0.7*(Pe+ Lp3*β3)-2*0.7*Lp3*α3Q-0.4*(Pc+Lp4*β4)-2*0.4*Lp4*α4Q-ρμQμ-1-φ(4-36)π"=-8*α1-2*Lp2*α2-2*0.7*Lp3*α3-2*0.4*Lp4*α4-ρμ(μ-1)Qμ-2<0,林纸一体化项目总利润存在极大值。第五部分案例研究,通过四川泸州竹林浆纸一体化项目规模经济问题的实证分析,验证了项目规模经济计量模型,证实了本文研究成果对实际工作的指导效果。第六部分研究了加快实现林纸一体化项目规模经济性的策略和措施；提出了实现林纸一体化项目规模经济特性的八项建议意见。第七部分对整篇论文进行总结,指出了本文的主要创新点,提出了本文研究成果的应用建议,对今后学习和研究的方向作出了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 It has a very important role to study on the economies of scale in terms of forestry-paper integration project, for the deal with the coordination between the forestry industry within the subdivision, forestry and agriculture, forestry and pulp-paper industry, the development of forestry-paper integration project with a good balance between transportation and other industries, the relationship between promotion and constraints in forestry-paper integration project planning and construction to determine appropriate scale and reduce the waste of social resources to enhance the project’s economic, ecological and social benefits.In this paper, it has been based on the basic principles of forest management and sustainable forest management planning and resource management, the basis of existing theoretical results and practical experience about forestry-paper integration and economies of scale, and the integrated use of theory induction, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, MFA and the CSA model creation, empirical analysis and other methods, combined with practical case of economies of scale on the forestry-paper integration project to undertake research.The paper is divided into seven parts. Firstly, the research background, purpose and significance, and research ideas, methods and structures were described.The second part is theoretical research, mainly on theory about forestry-paper integration and economies of scale. The evolution of guidelines on the paper industry’s raw material, the connotation of forestry-paper integration and the results of domestic and foreign scholars’ research are analyzed. The meaning, function, new features, theoretical foundations and the formation mechanism of economies of scale and the progress of the domestic and international research on economies of scale are discussed. The major theoretical achievements on economies of scale are summarized. At this chapter, the evaluation of theoretical research results has been made.The comparative analysis of forestry-paper integration situation between domestic and foreign are carry out at the chapter three. In this chapter, the main role and the characteristics of paper industry, the advantages of forestry-paper integration and the situation of forestry-paper integration between international and domestic are analyzed. The difficult problems of the implementation of forestry-paper integration and the existence error of economies of scale in the project are pointed out.In the fourth part, MFA (Multi-factors analysis) and CSA (Cost structure analysis) are used to study the factors of economies of scale in terms of forestry-paper integration project, the qualitative or quantitative relationship between these various factors. The main factors of forestry-paper integration project and the specific constraints and promote ways and means of these factors on the forestry-paper integration project are analyzed in-depth. Wood raw material pricing model and its impact on economies of scale of the project is researched and analyzed. The measurement model about appropriate scale of forestry-paper integration project was established. The analysis and demonstration in economies of scale of forestry-paper integration project were carried out relative clearly.The average cost is expressed by ACP. ACP=[(C1+C2+C3+C4)/Qw+Lpi*(β1+α1Q)]* (1+θ)*4+Lp2*(β2+α2Q)+Ω+0.7*[Pe+Lp3*(β3+α3Q)]+0.4*[Pc+Lp4*(β4+α4Q)]+λQγ+φ, whereλ>0,γ<0 (4-27)ACp’=Lp1*α1*(1+θ)*4+Lp2*α2+0.7*Lp3*α3+0.4*Lp4*α4+λγQγ-1 (4-28)ACp"=λγ(γ-1)Qγ-2>0(4-29)The scale of production with the lowest average cost is expressed by Q*.Q*=[-(Lp1*α1* (1+θ)*4+Lp2*α2+0.7*Lp3*α3+0.4*Lp4*α4)/(λγ)]1/(γ-1). This is a monotonically decreasing power function, when the rate of major goods transport costs Lp1、Lp2、Lp3、Lp4 rise, the lowest cost production value of forestry-paper integration project becomes smaller.Project profit is expressed byπ.π=P*Q-[(C1+C2+C3+C4)/Qw+Lp1*(β1+α1Q)]*4*Q-Lp2*(β2+α2Q*Q-Ω*Q-0.7*[Pe+Lp3*(β3+α3Q)]*Q-0.4*[Pc+Lp4*(β4+α4Q)]*Q-ρQμ-φ>*Q, wherep>0,μ>1 (4-35)π’=P-4*(C1+C2+C3+C4)/Qw-4*Lp1*β1-8*α1Q-Lp2*β2-2*Lp2*α2*Q-Ω-0.7*(Pe+ Lp3*β3)-2*0.7*Lp3*α3Q-0.4*(Pc+Lp4*β4)-2*0.4*Lp4*α4Q-ρQμ-1-φ(4-36)π"=-8*α1-2* Lp2*α2-2*0.7* Lp3*α3-2*0.4*Lp4*α4-ρμ(μ-1)Qμ-2<0, there is the maximum total profits of forestry-paper integration project.PartⅤis the case studies. Through the empirical analysis of economies of scale about bamboo pulp-paper integration project in Sichuan Luzhou, the econometric model of project scale is verified and the results of this study guiding the actual work is confirmed.In partⅥ, the strategy and measures to accelerate the realization of economies of scale of forestry-paper integration project were studied and the eight proposals to achieve economies of scale features of forestry-paper integration project were put forward.PartⅦis the conclusion, the whole thesis is summarized and the main innovation is pointed out. The application proposal of this research is presented. The future direction of Study and research is forecasted.更多还原