【作者】 赵砚；

【导师】 易东云；

【作者基本信息】 国防科学技术大学 ， 系统分析与集成， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 弹道导弹日益成为各国大力寻求的实战武器和威慑力量。为了能够尽早发现、全程跟踪、准确识别以及及时预报来袭的弹道导弹,协助反击与拦截,世界各大国不断加强弹道导弹预警系统建设。低轨预警系统,因具有站得高、看得远、报得早的优点,特别是具备同时观测主动段和自由段目标的能力,而成为天基预警系统的重要发展方向。本论文针对低轨星座条件下的目标跟踪问题展开研究,主要工作和成果如下:1.研究低轨星座的单目标跟踪问题。给出了单一测量对目标状态的Fisher信息阵及其特征值和特征向量的数学模型,说明了单一测量在星目矢量方向上对目标状态估计无信息贡献。针对单重观测下的初值估计,提出了直接处理测量噪声方差与俯仰角耦合问题的优化迭代算法。研究了测源不确定条件下目标实时跟踪CR下界的计算,解决了测源不确定条件下目标跟踪算法的有效性判定问题。2.研究低轨星座的多目标跟踪问题。针对多目标跟踪中最为基本的传感器调度问题,提出了基于后验CR下界(PCRLB)的多传感器调度算法,从而为低轨星座传感器调度问题的解决提供了可行方案。3.研究低轨星座的多目标跟踪问题。针对多目标跟踪中最为复杂的临近目标跟踪问题,提出了基于期望最大化(EM)方法的临近目标实时跟踪算法,大大改善了临近目标跟踪效果,同时也拓展了EM方法的应用领域。4.研究低轨星座在复杂情形下的目标跟踪问题。提出了低轨星座对初关机目标的预报交接分析模型,解决了预报交接的定量分析问题。针对诱饵初释放时对目标的干扰问题,提出了一种只利用运动学信息进行批处理硬决策的数据关联算法,较好地实现了目标和诱饵的区分,从而为诱饵干扰下的目标跟踪提供了一种可资借鉴的思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 The ballistic missiles (BM) are becoming an important war weapon and strategic power pursuited by countries in the world. The powers are increasingly strengthening the BM early warning system which will provide earlier detection, entire-flight track, correct identification, timely trajectory prediction, and counterattack and interception assistance. The early warning system based on the LEO satellite constellation are drawing more and more attention, thanks to its advantages, such as high placement, superior visibility, earlier warning, especially owning the capability of detecting the boost phase object and identify the coast phase object.The research work in this dissertation focuses on developing and enriching the target tracking algorithm based on the LEO satellite constellation. The contributions and innovation points are as follows:(1). Studying the single target tracking of LEO satellite constellation. The Fisher information matrix (FIM) of sigle observation for current state is examined, together with its eigenvalus and eigenvectors, which illustrates that the single observation will provide no information contribution for target state in the direction from the satellite to the target. In the case of estimating the initial state using single satellite, an more optimal iterative algorithm is deduced, with the purpose to resolve the coupling problem of the measurement noise covariance and the evaluation angle directly. The CRLB of on-line target tracking with origin uncertainty is studied, which can assist the estimator’s efficiency evaluation.(2). Studying the multi-target tracking (MTT) of LEO satellite constellation. Multitarget multisensor management is a basic problem in the MTT field. The PCRLB-based multi-sensor management algorithm is probed, with the benefit of establishing the basic framework and providing an available strategy for the revolution of the sensor management problem of LEO satellite constellation.(3). Studying the multi-target tracking (MTT) of LEO satellite constellation. The closely-spaced target tracking is the most complicated problem in the MTT field. The EM-based algorithm for the coast-phase closely-spaced target tracking is deduced, which will assist alleviating the track biase and improving the track precision, and broadening the application of the EM method.(4). Studying the target tracking algorithm in the complicated cases. The model of predicting handover for initial burnout target is probed, which will provide the numerical analysis. In order to identify target and decoy, a new data association algorithm, utilizing kinematic information only and based on batch processing and hard decision, is probed, with the contribution to the revolution of the target’s identification problem in the presence of decoys.更多还原