【作者】 赵新；

【导师】 朱一凡；

【作者基本信息】 国防科学技术大学 ， 控制科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 以装备体系对抗为特点的海军战役分析工作面向高层次的需求论证,需要全面考虑并有效处理广泛的不确定性和复杂的层次特性等因素。探索性分析虽然可以通过对问题广度的支撑改善论证分析效果,但仍然需要有效的分析模型的支撑。作为分析建模的方法之一,时间片影响图因其简洁、清晰以及运行快速等特点,已在现有研究中得到有效应用,但它仍然不能满足某些情况下,在同一分析模型中对作战过程部分细节进行更可信描述的建模需求。开展基于时间片影响图建模方法的改进研究,可以为这类问题的分析建模提供一套可选的方法框架。论文面向海军战役分析,以增加传统建模方法对问题描述的可信程度为目标,通过借鉴离散事件仿真的模型特点改进现有的基于时间片影响图的分析建模方法:在重点给出满足海军战役分析中作战过程描述需求的“混合异构建模仿真框架”下,提出动态随机影响图建模方法,并紧密围绕着“该影响图模型的语法、语义如何实现”、以及“该影响图模型的仿真解算如何进行”两大主题展开研究,解决了相关的理论问题与技术问题。具体研究内容包括以下几个方面:(1)为满足海军战役分析的要求,研究了现有方法的特点及其应用局限性,分析了海军战役分析中存在的作战过程建模需求及其复杂性,给出了一个混合异构建模仿真框架。(2)为实现现有建模方法的改进,分析了离散事件系统建模仿真技术的借鉴形式和意义,提出了改进的影响图建模方法,即动态随机影响图。给出了动态随机影响图模型规范的形式化描述,在此基础上设计了动态随机影响图模型仿真算法及其仿真器实现方法,并讨论了动态随机影响图的模型构建方法。(3)为支持动态随机影响图的解算,给出了模型仿真解算的参考框架,详细讨论了仿真解算调度策略、随机采样方法、仿真终止策略等内容的具体实现,并研究了如何对仿真解算过程进行更有效的控制。(4)在上述理论方法的指导下,设计并实现了支持动态随机影响图建模仿真的EASim软件环境。以此为基础给出了舰艇编队区域防空问题动态随机影响图建模的应用示例,通过问题分析、模型构建、模型调度解算等具体过程,展示了动态随机影响图建模仿真的特点及其支持该类问题研究的有效性。论文的创新之处包括:提出了支持海军战役分析的混合异构建模仿真框架,用于在理论上指导建模方法进一步的研究;系统地提出并定义了时间片影响图与离散事件仿真模型相结合的动态随机影响图建模方法;详细地分析并设计了动态随机影响图仿真解算的参考过程及控制策略,提出了基于贝叶斯技术的多阶段仿真解算方法,以及基于参数稳态判定的两阶段序贯仿真终止改进策略。论文的研究面向海军战役分析,为现有战役分析建模仿真框架及其支撑建模仿真方法的改进研究与具体实现提出了有效的解决方案。该项研究不仅可以丰富高层次决策分析模型的形式种类,也可以使影响图的扩展研究更加深入。该方法也为其它具有类似性质的复杂高层次决策问题建模提供了可选的方案支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 To do theater analysis of navy and related high-level demonstration, it’s necessary to manage a range of uncertainties and complex characteristics in several layers effec-tively. While Exploratory Analysis (EA) could improve quality of the analysis by ex-panding its range, it still needs support of valid analysis-model. As one optional method for EA modeling, Time-Slice Influence Diagrams (TSIDs, or called Dynamic IDs) has been effectively used in several researches, for its characters of simple, clear and run-ning fast, etc. But it still can’t deal with cases that some processes need to be described detailed in the same analysis-model. To improve existing modeling method, based on TSIDs, we could provide a better alternative methodological framework for this kind of issues, especially for EA modeling.Aiming at increasing credibility of issue description by existing method, this dis-sertation enhances TSIDs as an improvement referring the Discrete Event Systems (DES) Modeling and Simulation (M&S) technology; and focuses on disposing i) how to provide a hybrid heterogeneous modeling and simulation frame; ii) how to make the syntax and semantics of the improved model specification; and iii) how to process the simulation evaluation of the improved model. It solves related problems both in theory and in technology, and discusses the influences for modeling process and model evalua-tion. The contents to research include the following parts:(1) To satisfy needs of navy theater analysis, the characteristics and application limits of existing method is discussed, the modeling requirements of campaign process in navy theater analysis are analyzed, and a hybrid heterogeneous modeling and simula-tion frame is proposed.(2) To achieve the improvement of existing method, based on the analysis of char-acters and modeling process of TSIDs, an improved method is proposed, named‘Dy-namic-Stochastic Influence Diagrams (DSIDs)’, taking DES M&S technologies for ref-erence. In order to make DSIDs model specification more realizing, formal method is used for specification description. After that, the simulation algorithms and the imple-mentation of their simulators are proposed.(3) To support DSIDs model evaluating, a reference framework for simulation evaluating is proposed, and the random sampling method and the evaluating stopping strategy are discussed and implemented detailed correspond with the framework.(4) To illuminate theoretics above, the design and implementation of a DSIDs M&S tool - EASim are discussed, based what an armada area defence issue demonstra-tion is carried out. In this demonstration, the characters of DSIDs and it’s supporting for this kind of issue are shown, by the detailed processing of issue analysis, model build-ing and evaluating.The creative work and the primary contributions of this dissertation can be summa-rized as follows: i) proposes a hybrid heterogeneous M&S framework for theater analy- sis of navy; ii) presents a DSIDs method systemically and gives model specification and its simulation strategy detailedly, supporting the framework; and iii) promotes actualiz-ing strategy for DSIDs model simulation evaluating detailedly, especially proposes a Bayes-based multi-phases simulation frame for model eveluating, and proposes a two-stage sequential stopping procedure with parameter steady-state estimate for termi-nating simulation.To sum up, this dissertation gives an effective solution for existing theater analysis M&S frame and supporting M&S methods. The dissertation has reference values both for enriching the kinds of EA model for theater analysis of navy, and for extending the researches between IDs and M&S technology. It also could be alternative scheme to the complex issue that owning similar characters.更多还原