【作者】 尹洪英；

【导师】 徐丽群；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 企业管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 道路交通运输网络在现代生活中所起的作用越来越重要,然而在自然灾害、大型活动、车辆故障、交通事故、恶劣天气、道路施工改建及维修等事件下,当交通运输网络没有足够的能力去承受这些事件的影响时,就会导致交通运输网络通行能力下降,引发交通拥堵。道路交通运输网络受到随机事件的影响,失去部分或全部连通能力而导致道路交通运输网络性能或服务水平下降的性质就是道路交通运输网络的脆弱性。对道路交通运输网络脆弱性进行研究,能够为道路管理部门确定路段脆弱度和采取各种控制策略提供依据,以预防和减轻破坏性事件所造成的影响,增强管理部门对灾难事件和应急事件的预防能力和应对能力。本文分别从静态和动态的角度对道路交通运输网络脆弱性进行了分析,并从动静结合的角度对路段脆弱性的影响范围进行了研究。本文主要研究内容如下:第一章主要阐述了道路交通运输网络脆弱性的研究背景及意义,简述了本文各个部分的主要研究内容、研究框架和论文的主要创新点。第二章主要对道路交通运输网络脆弱性的研究现状进行了分析。首先,对道路交通运输网络脆弱性的概念和内涵进行了归纳总结,讨论了不同学者对道路交通运输网络脆弱性概念的共识和分歧,分析了道路交通运输网络脆弱性与可靠性之间的联系和区别;其次,对当前道路交通运输网络脆弱性的评估方法进行了分类综述;然后,对道路交通运输网络脆弱性的一些相关概念进行了分析;最后,给出了作者对道路交通运输网络脆弱性概念的界定。第三章对道路交通运输网络脆弱性的影响因素进行了分析。探讨了影响道路交通运输网络脆弱性的诸多因素,对引起道路交通运输网络脆弱性的内部和外部影响因素进行分类,分析了道路交通运输网络脆弱性的主要特征,然后进一步剖析了各个因素之间的联系,构建了影响道路交通运输网络脆弱性因素的解释结构模型。根据解释结构模型分级模型的结果,分析了导致道路交通运输网络脆弱性最直接和最根本的因素。最后,利用GIS图层叠置分析法对道路交通运输网络脆弱性的空间差异进行研究。第四章提出了道路交通运输网络脆弱度综合评估模型。本章从静态角度出发,利用网络效率和失效可能性对网络的脆弱性进行描述;从动态角度出发,利用道路交通运输网络路段失效的成本变动对网络的脆弱性进行描述。首先,对需要分析的整个网络按照网络的拓扑结构和网络流量进行动态分区,将整个网络划分为多个路网动态交通小区;其次,在不考虑网络失效概率和交通流量的情况下,从道路交通运输网络运行的效率性角度出发,基于网络效率模型对道路交通运输网络的结构脆弱性进行度量;然后,考虑到路网失效的可能性,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的道路交通运输网络脆弱环节的动态识别模型;再次,考虑到道路交通运输网络中的流量可能带来的交通拥堵,从道路交通运输网络失效的后果经济性角度出发,给出了道路交通运输网络运输性能退化及路段失效的成本分析过程框架,基于BPR路阻函数和用户均衡分配理论分析了道路交通运输网络运输性能退化的成本函数,建立了拥堵情况下道路交通运输网络路段失效的成本评估模型;最后,给出了道路交通运输网络脆弱度分级量化的标准。第五章对道路交通运输网络路段脆弱性的影响范围进行了分析。首先,结合基于耦合映像格子模型的交通运输网络级联失效模型及交通运输网络的特征分析了相应的耦合映像格子模型中的参数,然后通过仿真分析了不同的交通运输网络拓扑结构、外部扰动以及耦合强度对交通运输网络级联失效变化的影响规律。最后,给出了估计道路交通运输网络级联失效传播范围的算法流程。第六章给出了一个道路交通运输网络脆弱性评估的应用实例及一些降低道路交通运输网络脆弱性的对策。首先,针对一个具体的应用实例进行分析;其次,分析了道路交通运输网络脆弱环节的动态对策过程;最后,针对道路交通运输网络脆弱性的影响因素和脆弱性的特征,利用道路交通运输网络脆弱性评估的指标和结果,提出各种降低道路交通运输网络脆弱性的对策和补救措施。第七章总结了论文的主要研究工作和研究结论,对未来的研究方向提出了展望。本文的主要创新点包括:(1)提出了道路交通运输网络脆弱性影响因素分析的解释结构模型。本文将道路交通运输网络脆弱性的影响因素分为内部影响因素和外部影响因素两大类,从定性的角度分析了道路交通运输网络脆弱性的本质原因,利用解释结构模型对道路交通运输网络脆弱性相关因素之间的层次关系进行了详细分析,分析了导致道路交通运输网络脆弱性最直接和最根本的因素。(2)构建了考虑道路交通运输网络运行的效率性、失效的可能性和后果的经济性三个方面的道路交通运输网络脆弱度的度量模型。在不考虑道路交通运输网络的失效概率和路网交通流量的情况下,从网络运行的效率性角度出发,利用网络效率模型分析了道路交通运输网络的结构脆弱性。从失效概率的角度出发,基于贝叶斯网络分析了道路交通运输网络的概率脆弱性。考虑道路交通运输网络流量变化的情况下可能产生的拥堵,给出了路段运输性能退化的成本模型,分析了道路交通运输网络的成本脆弱性。最后,给出了道路交通运输网络脆弱度的分级量化标准。(3)研究了道路交通运输网络脆弱性影响范围的规律和预测方法。利用耦合映像格子模型分析了相应的耦合映像格子模型中的参数,通过仿真分析了不同的交通运输网络拓扑结构、外部扰动以及耦合强度对交通运输网络级联失效变化的影响规律。最后,对路段在外部扰动下产生级联失效的影响范围进行了预测。(4)分析了道路交通运输网络脆弱环节的动态对策过程,分别从优化交通运输网络的规划和设计、改善道路路基路面的质量状况、对车流量进行适当控制和分流、对灾害做出预测和预报、提高对突发事件的预警和应急处置能力和水平等几个方面分析了降低道路交通运输网络脆弱性的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Road transportation network plays an increasingly important role in modern life. However, the events such as natural disasters, large-scale activities, vehicle fault, traffic accidents, bad weather, road construction and maintenance would weaken the capacity of the transportation network and may cause other road traffic congestion when the transportation network do not have enough capacity to withstand the influence of these events. It is the nature of vulnerability of road transportation network that road transportation network should fail under random factors and lose some or all of its connectivity, causing road transportation network performance or service level significantly decreased.Research on the vulnerability of road transportation networks can provide the support to determine the vulnerability degree of road transportation networks and adopt control strategies for road management department in order to prevent and mitigate the impact of destructive events. It also enhances people’s prevention and response capabilities to disaster and emergency. This paper analyzes road transportation network vulnerability from the static and dynamic angle respectively, and studies the scope of influence of road transportation network vulnerability from the combining static and dynamic angles.The main research works of this paper are as follows:In Chapter 1 the paper mainly expounds the background and significance of the research on road transportation network vulnerability, and expounds the mainly research contents, the research framework and the major innovations.In Chapter 2 the paper analyzes and reviews the current research on the subject of road transportation network vulnerability. First, the concept and connotation of road transportation network vulnerability are summarized. The consensus and differences of different scholars’idea about the concept of road transportation network vulnerability are discussed and the relation and difference between the concepts of road transportation network vulnerability and reliability are analyzed. Second, the road transportation network vulnerability assessment methods are categorized and reviewed, also related concepts of road transportation network vulnerability are analyzed. Finally, the definition of road transportation network vulnerability is given.In Chapter 3 the paper analyzes the factors influencing road transportation network vulnerability. Many factors which impact road transportation network vulnerability are discussed, and the internal and external factors affecting road transportation network vulnerability are classified. The main characteristics of road transportation network vulnerability are analyzed. Then the linkages between various influencing factors are analyzed and the Interpretation Structure Model for the influencing factors of road network vulnerability is built. According to the results of the Interpretation Structure Model, the paper analyzes the most direct and fundamental factors leading to road transportation network vulnerability. Finally, the spatial difference of road transportation network vulnerability can be researched and analyzed based on GIS map overlay.In Chapter 4 the paper puts forward the comprehensive evaluation model of road transportation network vulnerability. This chapter uses the network efficiency and failure probability to describe network vulnerability from static angle, and uses road transportation network failure cost to describe network vulnerability from dynamic angle. First, the entire network is dynamicly zoning into multiple dynamic traffic zones according to the topology of the network and network flow. Second, without considering the road transportation network failure probability and traffic situation, from the operation efficiency perspective, the framework of measurement on road transportation network structural vulnerability is proposed based on the network efficiency model. Third, taking into account the probability of road transportation network failure, the model for identifying vulnerable links of road transportation network is proposed based on Bayesian Networks. This paper sets up Bayesian Networks models of identifying vulnerable links for transportation networks based on fault tree and minimal path sets. Fourth, considering the road transportation network potential traffic congestion, the cost evaluating process framework of road transport performance degradation and road disruption is given from the perspective of failure economy consequences. Road transportation network disruption performance degradation cost model is analyzed based on BPR road impedance function and user equilibrium assignment theory. Finally, the quantitative classification criterion of road transportation network vulnerability is given.In Chapter 5 the paper analyzes the influencing range of road transportation network vulnerability. First, the parameters in the cascading failure model of road transportation network are analyzed based on combination of coupled map lattices and the characteristics of transportation network. Then the law of cascading failure in road transportation network is analyzed by simulation of different transportation network topology, external disturbances and coupling strength. Finally, the failure propagation prediction algorithm of road transportation network is given.In Chapter 6 the paper gives an application example of road transportation network vulnerability assessment and puts forward some countermeasures to reduce road transportation network vulnerability. First, a specific application example is given. Second, the dynamic response process of road transportation network vulnerability is analyzed. Finally, aiming at the influence factors and characteristics of road transportation network vulnerability, some countermeasures and remedial measures are put forward to reduce the impact of road transportation network vulnerability from various points of view using network vulnerability assessment indexes and results.In Chapter 7 the paper summarizes the main research work and research conclusion as well as the future research.The main innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) The paper puts forward the Interpretation Structure Model of the influencing factors which cause road transportation network vulnerability. The paper divides the influencing factors of road transportation network vulnerability into internal factors and external factors. By means of qualitative analyses, the paper analyzes the fundamental reasons which cause road transportation network vulnerability. The hierarchical relationships between relevant factors of road transportation network vulnerability are analyzed by the Interpretation Structure Model from a qualitative point of view. The paper analyzes the most direct and fundamental factors which lead to road transportation network vulnerability.(2) The paper constructs the road transportation network vulnerability degree analysis model from three aspects, which are road transportation network operation efficiency, failure probability and economic efficiency of the failure. Without considering the road transportation network failure probability and traffic situation, from the operation efficiency perspective, road transportation network structural vulnerability is analyzed based on the network efficiency model. From the failure probability perspective, the probability vulnerability of road transportation network is analyzed based on Bayesian Networks. Considering the road network potential traffic congestion, the cost evaluation model of road transport performance degradation and road disruption is given. And the road transportation network cost vulnerability is analyzed. Finally, the quantitative classification criterion of road transportation network vulnerability is given.(3) The paper researches the law and prediction algorithm of cascading failure range of road transportation network vulnerability. The parameters in the cascading failure model of road transportation network are analyzed based on coupled map lattices. The law of cascading failure in road transportation network is analyzed by simulation of different transportation network topology, external disturbances and coupling strength. Finally, the failure propagation range of road transportation network under the external disturbance is predicted. (4) The paper analyzes the dynamic response process of road transportation network vulnerability. Several countermeasures such as optimizing the transportation network planning and design, improving the quality of roadbed and road surface conditions, properly controlling and distributing the traffic flow, predicting and forecasting the disasters, and improving the emergency warning and response ability, are put forward to reduce road transportation network vulnerability.更多还原