【作者】 梁晓锋；

【导师】 易宏；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 船舶与海洋结构物设计、制造， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 随着科学技术的发展,大量先进系统、武器设备的配备,大大提高了现代舰船的战技性能。然而,技术性能好并不等于整体作战能力强。舰船整体作战能力是较好的技术性能与较高的可靠性的有机结合。获得高可靠性的必要条件是实施系统的可靠性工程。舰船是一个典型的大型复杂系统,具有动态性和多阶段任务性等特点,目前的可靠性分析技术对舰船而言,有诸多不适宜的地方。总的说来,一方面是实施舰船可靠性工程、提高舰船可靠性刻不容缓;另一方面是舰船可靠性方法体系不完善,科学实用的可靠性分析技术严重缺乏。这一矛盾揭示了开展舰船可靠性分析关键技术研究的必要性和紧迫性。本文以舰船可靠性分析技术需求为牵引,根据舰船的特点,从任务可靠度、固有可用度这两个舰船顶层可靠性参数出发,开展舰船可靠性关键技术研究,旨在打通舰船可靠性工程技术瓶颈,为舰船可靠性工程的开展提供理论依据和技术支持。本文主要贡献可以归结为“探索一个体系,解决三个关键技术问题”:1)针对目前舰船可靠性工程方法研究“无章可循”的现状,探索了舰船可靠性研究方法体系的构建问题。研究提出了舰船可靠性工程方法研究应该以“顶层可靠性参数为中心”,即遵循“从总体到系统,再回归总体”的思路,2)针对舰船总体可靠性参数不仅包含可靠性因素,维修性因素也隐含其中的特点,探索了舰船总体可靠性指标分配过程中可靠性参数与维修性参数如何协同的问题,提出了基于顶层参数的舰船可靠性、维修性综合分配方法。该方法为舰船可靠性分配问题提供了一种有效解决方案。3)针对舰船具有动态性、多阶段任务性的特点,引入贝叶斯网络理论,提出基于动态性和多阶段任务性的舰船可靠性分析技术,弥补了传统方法在舰船可靠性分析时模型描述上的局限性及算法上的缺陷问题。在模型方面,用贝叶斯网络能有效地刻画舰船的动态行为、多阶段任务行为,克服了故障树、事件树、二元决策图在舰船可靠性模型描述方面的局限性;在分析方面,利用贝叶斯网络的预测推理功能,实现舰船可靠性预测分析,利用其诊断推理功能实现重要度分析、故障诊断等。4)针对现有可靠性评定方法仅适用于静态、不可维修、单阶段任务系统的现状,提出了基于贝叶斯网络理论和数值仿真理论的舰船总体任务可靠度评定方法。该方法不仅可以处理具有动态性、可维修性的系统的可靠性评定问题,还可以处理多阶段任务系统的可靠性评定问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of the science and technology, tactic and technical performance of the warship equipped with a lot of advanced system and weapon are greatly improved. How-ever, good technical performance is not equal to strong combat capability. The strong combat capability is the organic combination of good technical performance and high reliability. The necessary conditions for obtaining a high reliability is implementing reliability project systematically. Warship is a typical complex system with multi-phase mission and dynamic characteristic. The traditional technologies have lots of maladjustment in warship’s reliability analysis.In this dissertation, staring with the top-level reliability parameters, namely mission reli-ability and inherent availability, the key technologies for warship’s reliability analysis were studied. The objective of the study is to get through the bottleneck problem of warship’s reli-ability technology, and provide necessary theoretical basis and technical support for developing the warship’s reliability project.The main contributions of the study can be concluded as:Constructing a system and solving three specific problems.1) Accordingg to status that the research on the technology of warship’s reliability analysis is unsystematized, this dissertation put forward that research on the technology of warship’s reliability analysis should centred by top reliability paramemters, which is not the starting point,but also the stay point of the research. Thus, a system guiding the research on technology of warship’s reliability analysis is constructed, that is“warship overall—system-- warship overall”.2) Accordingg to that the top reliability parameter of the warship not only involving the factors of reliability, but also the factors of maintainability, a comprehensive reliability and maintainability allocation method, which is suitable for the warship’s reliability allocation, is suggested. The method proposed can efficiently solve the synergetic problem of the reliability parameter and maintainability parameter. 3) In order to solve the multi-phase mission and dynamic characteristic of the warship during the reliability analysis, a new method based on Bayesian Network (BN) was presented. In this method, BN model is used to depict the multi-phase mission and dynamic characteristic of the warship. The prognostic inference of the BN is employed to implement the reliability prediction and the diagnosis inference of the BN is used to perform the importance analysis and fault diagnosis. The method proposed not only effectively overcomes limitations of the tradi-tional reliability analysis method in model description, but also remedys its defects in algo-rithm.4) Due to the limitations of the traditional reliability assement method which is only suitable for system with and single-phase mission and static characteristic, this thesis proposed a new method based the BN and numerical simulation for reliability assement of the warship. The proposed method provides a solution to the reliability assement for static system, dynamic system and multi-phase mission system.更多还原