【作者】 史玉芳；

【导师】 李慧民；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 土木工程建造与管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 建筑工程项目的成败不仅关乎各企业的生存,也对国民经济有着重大的影响。伴随着现代工程项目大型化、复杂化的发展趋势,传统的管理模式已经不能满足和适应现代工程项目管理的需要,迫切需要一种新的、与之相适应的管理模式和理念。系统可靠性理论为研究工程项目管理提供了一些新的范式,将系统可靠性理论与项目管理理论相结合是研究工程项目管理问题的有效途径。本文以系统可靠性、网络计划技术、图论等为理论基础,运用先进的管理思想和理念,基于对建筑工程项目施工网络系统及项目管理目标的深入分析,提出了建筑工程项目施工可靠性的概念,对建筑工程项目施工可靠性的基础理论与方法进行了较为深入的基础性研究,提出了建筑工程项目施工可靠性的测定方法,并为其制定了评价标准,以施工可靠性为约束条件构建了包含建筑工程项目工期、成本、质量和安全四大目标的多目标协同优化模型,最后选取工程实例对以上理论和方法进行了应用。本文的主要工作和创新点如下:(1)构建了建筑工程项目施工可靠性这一综合指标并将其引入工程项目管理中,提出其内涵为建筑工程项目的工期可信性、成本经济性、质量可达性和施工安全性的总和,表现为工期可靠性、成本可靠性、质量可靠性和安全可靠性四个方面。(2)基于系统分解思想,将建筑工程项目施工过程划分为若干适当的工作单元,作为系统可靠性分析的基本单位;分析工作单元之间的可靠性关系,构建了以工作单元为子系统的施工网络可靠性框图,使建筑工程项目施工网络系统可靠性分析具备了基本的网络图模型。(3)提出了建筑工程项目施工可靠性的测定方法体系:①首先测定建筑工程项目工作单元的可靠性:基于蒙特卡洛模拟法提出了建筑工程项目施工工作单元的工期可靠性和成本可靠性的测定方法,在工作单元的工期可靠性测定时将蒙特卡洛模拟法与PERT法相结合,弥补了传统PERT的假设条件造成的误差;基于故障树分析法提出了建筑工程项目施工工作单元的质量可靠性和安全可靠性的测定方法。②计算建筑工程项目施工网络系统的可靠性:建筑工程项目施工网络系统的工期可靠性和成本可靠性仍采用工作单元可靠性的测定方法,只需将工作单元的范围扩大至整个工程项目所有施工活动;建筑工程项目施工网络系统的质量可靠性和安全可靠性的计算,基于网络系统可靠性计算原理,改进了网络系统不交化最小路集的BDD算法并编制了程序。③分析了建筑工程项目施工可靠性这一指标的特性,引入几何平均数的概念,提出了建筑工程项目施工网络系统总的施工可靠性由系统的工期可靠性、成本可靠性、质量可靠性和安全可靠性的几何平均数来确定。(4)基于灰色系统理论提出了建筑工程项目施工可靠性合格下限的确定方法,为进一步对施工可靠性进行等级评定,基于模糊数学方法将施工可靠性划分为七个评价区间。(5)针对传统的工程项目目标优化仅考虑工期、成本和质量三大目标的局限性,在工程项目目标协同优化中添加了安全目标;以施工可靠性为约束条件构建了工程项目多目标协同优化模型,模型中用建筑工程项目的质量可靠性和安全可靠性作为质量和安全的目标函数值,对质量和安全目标进行量化;运用非支配排序遗传算法实现模型求解。(6)最后选取工程实例对以上理论和方法进行了应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The success and failure of complex construction project not only determines the existence of all corporations but also has a great affection on the national economy. With the development of tendency that modern construction projects are becoming bigger and more complex, traditional management model can’t meet and fit the demands of complex construction project management. A new and adjusted management model and idea is urgently needed. System reliability theory provides some new forms to study construction project management. It is an effective way to combine the system reliability theory and project management to study complex construction project management.This paper is based on system reliability theory, net planning technology, graph theory, draws on the experience of advanced management thought of other industries, deeply analyzes the scope of complex construction project and the aim of project management, and based on this, proposes the new definition of construction reliability, deeply studies the basic theory, method and appliance of construction reliability, builds the mensuration, evaluation and optimization theory and method system of construction reliability.The main innovated works of this paper are following:(1)Drawn the definition of reliability, combined the definition of successful project management, construction reliability is proposed and it is a totally new evaluation index of project management, its intonation is defined that is the accessibility of construction quality, credibility of time limit of work, economy and proportionality of the cost and safety of construction, which is reflected as the four aspects: reliability of time, cost, quality and safety.(2)Based on the system disintegration thought, the construction process of complex project is divided into several work unites, which can be the basic unites for the analyzing of system reliability, and this is the start point of this paper. The reliability relationships among working units are analyzed, the construction network reliability block diagram using work unites as its subsystem is built, which make the analysis of construction system reliability have the basic network chart model.(3)A whole mensuration method system of construction reliability is provided: i) The work units’time, cost, quality and safety reliability are proposed based on the theory of Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Monte Carlo Simulation Approach and Fault Tree Analysis, which can provide the basic date for the whole system construction reliability and lay the foundation of the construction network system reliability study.ⅱ) The BDD algorithm of network system reliability is improved based on disjoint minimal path set method and quick solving of whole system reliability is got through computer program and construction case is chosen for its appliance.ⅲ) Geometric mean of time, cost, quality and safety reliability for whole construction network is used to calculate the whole construction reliability instead of arithmetic average.(4)The qualified lower limit of construction reliability is made through grey target theory of gray system theory. Attached function model of reliability evaluation is built based on Fuzzy Mathematics theory and seven fuzzy evaluation intervals are got, which provides the basis of corresponding method and parameter for the evaluation of construction network system reliability.(5)The interrelation among the time, cost, quality and safety aim of construction project is quantitatively described, optimization research of complex construction project network system reliability is started, optimization model of construction project is built, the model is resolved through Non-Dominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm(NSGA-Ⅱ)and is analyzed through real example.(6)In the end of the paper, a case is chosen as the application of such theory and method.更多还原