【作者】 邢小军；

【导师】 周德群；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 能源不仅仅是区域发展的重要的生产要素,而且是区域内部居民生存的必不可少的生活资料。能源问题涉及面广。区域在发展中受到的能源约束会对区域发展的经济、社会、环境等各方面都会产生影响,因而,能源约束问题的研究异常复杂。学术界对此问题的研究也是众说纷纭,没有形成统一的观点。针对这种现象,本文从以下几方面做出自己的努力:提出了能源问题研究具有层次性的观点。能源问题的研究从下至上依次可分为“基础层”、“认知层”、“分析层”、“解决层”四个层次。每一层次都构成了上一层次研究的基础。以此为基础对现有的关于能源的研究文献进行整理分析,基本上可以发现能源问题研究较为混乱的原因,即大部分文献仅仅对分析层和解决层的问题进行研究,而少有研究诸如“能源约束是否存在?”,“能源约束如何分类?如何度量?”等能源研究的基础层和认知层的问题。提出了区域能源需求层次论。认为区域能源需求也具有层次性,即区域会依次的满足其对能源的“基本生活需求”、“社会安全需求”、“生产需求”和“享乐需求”。虽然由于区域内个体众多,存在部分高级需求先于低级需求被满足的情况,但总体而言,区域的能源需求还是(也应该是)按照从低级到高级的顺序被满足。以此为基础,证明了“区域发展中能源约束存在”的可能性。根据区域所受到的能源约束的程度、原因等标准,提出了区域能源约束分类的方法,进一步地提出了能源约束度的概念和具体的测算方法。从开放度和发展度两个方面测算区域的开放程度和发展水平,然后从区域能源供需的数量、波动性、能源种类和空间差异四个方面分别测算其能源约束度,最后将区域所受到的能源约束的大小与其开放程度和发展水平结合,构建了区域能源约束度的测算模型,为定量的测量区域能源约束提供了途径。在对区域能源约束进行分类、度量之后,研究了能源系统和经济、产业结构、人口等系统的联系,并以中国为例进行了实证研究,发现产业结构、人口的年龄结构、空间分布结构、经济产出等因素会极大地影响区域的能源需求。在这些研究的基础上,根据本文所提出的方法,以中国(包括各个省区)为例,实际测算了中国及各省区的能源约束度,并提出相应的解决措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is not only important factor of production for development of district but also indispensable means of subsistence for the people lived in the district. Energy system has great influence in a district. Energy constraint that a district suffered during its development would sway many fields of the district, such as economy, society, environment, and so on. So, research work of energy constraint is very complicated, and academic research do not get unified opinions on this issue. In response to this phenomenon, this paper, from the following aspects, makes its own efforts:This paper puts forward a new opinion that research work of energy has diffient levels. Research on energy issues from the bottom in turn can be divided into four levels, namely "basic layer", "cognition layer", "analysis layer", and "solution layer". Enery layer is the basic for research work in upper layer. According this opinion, to analyze the existing research articles on energy research can discover the reason led energy research work to chaos. The reason is that most research work only paid attention on questions in "analysis layer" and "solution layer", few research works analyzed questions in "basic layer" and "cognition layer", such as“does energy constraint exist?”,”how to classify energy constraint?”,”how to measure energy constraint?”, and so on.Learn from Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs theory, this paper divides energy demand of a district into four hierarchies, From lower to higher, named“basic living demand”,“society safe demand”,“production demand”, and“entertainment demand”. Although there are many Individuals in most districts, part of higher energy demand perhaps be satisfied before part of lower energy demand, but totally, energy demand of whole district will be satisfied according to the order from low to high. Futhermore, this paper proves that energy constraint could be exist during development of any district.Taking the difference of the extent and reason of energy constraint among different districts, this paper gives a method to classified energy constraint, and put forward the concept, namely“degree of energy constraint”, and its calculation method. On the basis of calculating opening degree and development degree of one district, through calculating the difference of quantity, time, category, and space between energy demand and supply in the district, degree of energy constraint of the district can be measured, which provied a method quantitative research on energy constraint.After classifying and quantitative measuring energy constraint, this paper does some research work on anlyzing the relationship among energy, economy, environment, people, society, industrial structure, and so on, and does the empirical study on China. The results show that industrial stucture, age and space distribution of people, GDP,etc are important factors could sway energy demand of one district. Accoding to the method put forward by this paper, degree of energy constraint of most provinces in China is measured, and the corresponding measures to resolve their energy constraint are advised.更多还原