【作者】 林源源；

【导师】 李向民；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,随着我国社会经济的飞速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高,中国旅游业的经济规模得以持续发展壮大、经济效益得到不断稳步提升,旅游产业已经在我国国民经济体系中占有相当重要的地位。但是从我国旅游产业整体发展状况而言,存在产业集中度偏低、产业结构不合理、市场竞争不规范、行业利润率偏低等弊病。基于此,本文着眼于宏观,以我国区域旅游产业为研究对象,从其经济绩效及相关影响因素入手,梳理我国区域旅游产业历史发展的特点和目前存在的问题,并据此提出相应的解决方案和发展对策,以期为我国区域旅游产业未来的发展提供有益的理论指导和实践参考。首先本文在总结区域旅游产业经济绩效相关理论的基础上,重点从旅游产业发展的经济效果和经济效率两个方面,按照“全国—区域—省份”这样的层次架构,对区域旅游产业经济绩效展开系统分析,揭示出我国区域旅游业的主要发展特点如下1)我国区域旅游产业的发展总体态势良好,呈现出时间阶段性的特点,同时东、中、西三大区域旅游产业的规模和总量呈现明显的梯度格局;2)区域旅游产业的发展对第三产业具有显著的、直接的促进效应,进而这种影响会传导至整个国民经济;3)东部地区旅游业的集中化程度要高于中西部地区以及全国平均水平,但是呈现下行趋势,中西部地区则呈现稳健的上升势头;4)我国区域旅游企业绝对大多数处于规模效益递增的状态,进一步从基于DEA方法的可分解Malmquist生产率指数分析结果看,这种增长主要来源于技术变化,其中东部地区绝对数值水平较中西部而言要高一些。其次为了探讨我国区域旅游业出现上述特点的内在原因,本文从旅游业发展的根本要素——资源禀赋的角度,结合我国旅游产业发展的实际情况,通过系统性比较,采用分位回归及FGLS回归分析方法,重点考察了旅游资源禀赋对旅游产业经济绩效影响相对重要性的变化。历史分析结果表明,总体上资源禀赋对我国旅游产业经济绩效的影响作用,在总量和质量层面上均存在着不同程度的下降。其中劳动力禀赋和固定资产投资的影响作用则处于显著上升时期,旅游产业人力资本状况的影响作用则有升有降。研究结果说明现阶段我国旅游产业发展大致处于波特产业竞争理论所描绘的由第一阶段向第二、三阶段过度时期,富于技术和知识的高级旅游资源禀赋将表现出越发重要的作用。除资源禀赋因素外,影响旅游产业经济绩效水平高低的因素主要来自于旅游产业自身因素和社会相关方面发展因素的共同作用。本文在将旅游产业经济绩效细分为产业经济绩效和社会经济绩效两个方面的基础上,进一步考察了其余这些相关因素的影响作用。通过定性比较分析和定量计量分析发现,对旅游产业自身经济绩效和社会经济绩效均存在正向促进作用的因素主要有宏观经济市场规模的扩大、市场化制度建设的完善、基础设施条件的改善、社会经济服务化水平的提高;相反表现出一定负面影响的因素有对外开放;影响作用比较复杂或者说呈中性的是人力资本因素。分析结果进一步印证我国旅游产业总体上仍然还处于层次较低阶段,要想实现持续跨越发展必须注重自身能力水平的提升以及外部相关环境因素的改善。在基本理清了区域旅游产业经济绩效的影响因素后,本文通过选定相关变量和指标进行结构方程模型分析,在一个交互系统环境下,定量分析相关因素对区域旅游产业经济绩效的影响途径和程度。主要结论有1)旅游资源丰裕程度对区域旅游产业的经济绩效带动作用并不明显,即旅游业的经济绩效并不由一个区域的旅游资源丰裕程度简单决定,需要综合考量各种因素;2)区位条件对旅游业经济绩效总体效应是最明显的。它甚至超过旅游资源和服务设施对旅游业经济绩效的影响,这反映出区域旅游产业竞争中,区位条件是不可忽视的因素。最后,本文综合各章研究结果,提出区域旅游产业经济绩效的提升策略。首先政府要明确其引领区域旅游产业发展的职责,做好有关保障工作来促进区域旅游合作;其次可通过扩大旅游经济规模、提高市场开发力度、优化旅游消费结构来促进旅游市场的发展壮大;再者要改善旅游基础设施条件。在旅游资源硬件方面尤其要加快区域交通的建设,软件方面则要努力提升旅游科技含量、加强旅游人才培养;最后强调政府要努力完善有关旅游管理制度,主要是要完善旅游法律法规和改革经营管理体制。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening in China, with the rapid development of social economy and the improvement of people’s living standard, tourism economy in China has developed and expanded continually and economic benefits have increased steadily. The tourism industry has occupid an important position in our national economic system. But from the overall development of tourism industry in China, there exists several problems such as the low industrial concentration, the irrational industrial structure, the lack of standardization of market competition and the low of industry profit rate. Our current tourism policies are not able to solve these problems, and not enough to adapt to the needs of the development of tourism industry in China. Based on these conditions, this paper focused on the macro economy, regarded regional tourism industry in China as the research object, and researched on the characteristics of the development history of regional tourism industry in China and the existing problems, from its economic performance and related factors. Then this paper put forward the corresponding solutions and development countermeasures for future development of regional tourism industry, in order to provide useful references on theory and practice.Firstly, based on the summary of regional tourism industry’s economic performance, this paper systematically analyze the regional tourism industry’s economic performance according to the hierarchical framework of "nation–region - province" from the relevant theory of the economic effect and economic efficiency of tourism industry development. The research revealed three main features in regional tourism development. (1) The regional tourism industry in China developed generally well and time periodically. Meanwhile, the scale and the amount of the regional tourism industry in the eastern, central and western area presented gradient patterns. (2) The development of regional tourism industry significantly and directly promoted the third industry; and then promoted the entire national economy. (3) The degree of tourism centralization in easten area was higher than that in midwesten area and the national average. But that degree in eastern area was falling while that in midwesten area was rising. (4) Most regional tourism enterprises absolutely were increasing in economies of scale. Based on the further analysis on the results of resoluble Malmquist index of by the method DEA, this increasement was mainly from technological changes. The analysis results of absolute value in easten area was higher than that in midwesten area.Secondly, in order to explore the internal reasons for the aboving characteristics of regional tourism industry in China, from angle of the intrinsic reason of tourism development--, resource endowment and in combination with the actual situation of the development of tourism industry, this paper emphasized the change of the relative importance influence of the tourism resources endowment to tourism economic performance by the systematic comparison and regression and FGLS regression analysis methods. Historical analysis results showed that the effect of tourism resources endowment to economic performanc in China was totally descending on different degrees on the quality and quantity levels. The effect of labor endowment and fixed asset investment significantly increase, while the effect of situation of human capital sometimes rises and sometimes descends.Research results show that at present, the development of tourism industry in China was approximately in the transitional period from the first stage to the second and third stage which was described by Potter industrial competition theory. Advanced tourism resources endowment abounded in technology and knowledge will play more important roles in the development of tourism industry.Apart from the influence factors of resource endowment, the main factors affecting the level of tourism industry economic performance were the common factors from measurement of tourism industry itself and related aspects of the development of society. Based on economic performance of tourism industry which was subdivided into industrial economic performance and social economy performance, this paper further investigated the effect of these factors. Through comparative qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, it was found that the main factors that positively promoting economic performance of tourism industry and social economic performance were the expansion of the macroeconomic market, the perfection of marketization system, the improvement of basic establishment and the sevice level of social economy. On the contrary, the negative factor was open and reform; the neutral or more complex factor was human capital. The analysis results further confirmed that our tourism industry developmemt in general was on low level. It is necessary to improve its compentency relative external environmental factors in order to realize the continuous development.After research on the influence factors on regional tourism industry’s economic performance, this paper quantitatively analyzed the influencing way and degree of related factors on regional tourism industry economic performance, under the interactive system environment by the methods of selected related variables and index structure equation model analysis. The main conclusions are the following. (1) The effect of the level of resource endowment on regional tourism industry economic performance was not obvious. That was to say, tourism industry economic performance did not only depend on one fact of the level of resource endowment. It was better to synthetically consider various factors. (2) The overall effect of location on tourism economic performance was the most obvious, whose action was even more than the effect of the tourism resources and services onf tourism economic performance. It reflected that the location was an influence factor that can not be neglected in regional tourism industry competitions.Finally, this paper put forward some regional tourism industry promotion strategy by synthesizingthe research results in above chapters. Firstly, the government should make clear its responsibilities to lead the development of regional tourism industry and promote the regional tourism cooperation. Secondly, it is feasible to promote the tourism consumption market development by expanding tourism economy scale, greatly developing market expand and optimizing tourism consumption structure. Again, it is necessary to improve tourism establishment. It is prerequisite to accelerate construction of regional transportation in tourist hardware resources and strengthen the scientific and technological content of tourism and cultivate tourist talents in software resources. Finally, it should be emphasized that the government should make great efforts to perfect relevant tourism management system, mainly perfecting the laws and regulations and reforming tourism management system.更多还原